Holly Bush Henry (right): Taken to score
Free horse racing betting tips from Simon Holt including Haydock's Grand National Trial
Horse Racing
Sat February 17, 2018 · 7y ago
Top commentator Simon Holt expects the Randox Health Grand National favourite to underline his claims at Haydock - and has a strong Ascot fancy too.
Simon Holt selections
2.25 Haydock
3.15 Haydock
It has often been said that a staying chaser reaches his prime at the age of nine, and this could well be the case with BLAKLION who, should he defy top weight in Saturday’s Betfred Grand National Trial at Haydock, would probably deserve a crack at the Gold Cup en route to Aintree.
Victory here off a mark of 161, just 8lb below current Cheltenham favourite Might Bite, will not be easy in what are sure to be testing conditions, but this admirable jumper seems to have taken a step forward this season.
Second to Vieux Lion Rouge in this race last year on good to soft ground, Blaklion has plenty of form in deeper conditions and is one of only two runners in the field who have proven ability to stay this three-and-a-half mile trip, the other being Mysteree who ran no race at all on his reappearance in the Welsh Grand National.
More serious rivals such as The Dutchman, Three Faces West, Wild West Wind and Daklondike may stay but it is not guaranteed.
Fourth in last year's Grand National, in which he probably struck the front a little too early and looked the winner turning for home, Blaklion has put up two serious performances this term chasing home his on-song stable-companion Bristol De Mai in the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby (with recent Cotswold Chase winner Definitly Red 23 lengths back in third) and then justifying strong market support to canter home from course specialists The Last Samuri and Highland Lodge in the Becher Chase back at Aintree.
In a weak era for staying chasers, he is already on the periphery of warranting a Gold Cup attempt and, though connections are not so keen and want to prioritise the National, a win here may oblige a change of heart.
I think his class may see him through with The Dutchman looking possibly the main threat after slamming Captain Redbeard and Hainan, both of whom had won at Haydock previously, in the Peter March Chase here over three furlongs shorter last month.
Not surprisingly, Colin Tizzard’s gelding has incurred a steep rise (up 13lb) for that success but Haydock on heavy ground can provide a unique test and his ability to handle it is a big plus.
Three Faces West has scored twice on the course, and was in front when falling in Captain Redbeard’s race here in December. Tom O’Brien’s mount could go well but, on his only previous attempt at this sort of trip at Cheltenham in November, 2017, he didn’t appear to get home.
Both Wild West Wind and Daklondike look likely stayers. The latter can race a bit lazily but keeps finding as he showed when beating subsequent winner Grand Vision in the Mandarin Chase at Newbury last time, and has a light weight.
Wild West Wind was leading the Welsh Grand National field at Chepstow when coming to grief seven fences from home, having previously hung on grimly from Alfie Spinner over three miles on the same course.
Blaklion is favourite for the Grand National
At Ascot, the featured Betfair Ascot Chase looks a cracker and a hard race to call.
Top Notch was a superb winner from subsequent King George runner-up Double Shuffle and recent Cheltenham winner Frodon over the course and distance in November, but was then just a little workmanlike when beating stable-companion Josses Hill at Taunton.
With another course and distance winner Coney Island and Waiting Patiently, defending an unbeaten record over fences, similarly rated, this could be very tight and one can’t quite rule out old Cue Card who was going well enough when falling in the Charlie Hall first time out before seemingly getting stuck in the mud behind Bristol De Mai in the Betfair Chase at Haydock.
On official ratings, Frodon is right up with them after his extraordinary handicap win at Cheltenham last time and, while Bryony Frost can’t claim her allowance in this Grade One contest, he looked a bit over-priced earlier in the week.
Earlier, HOLLY BUSH HENRY is fancied to continue his revival in the Keltbray Swinley Handicap Chase.
The seven-year-old, who is again partnered by riding find James Bowen (claiming 3lb), ran a blinder against the well-handicapped Ballydine at Sandown last month confirming that his trainer Phil Middleton has a rare touch when it comes to keeping his horses in form.
Holly Bush Henry was in the doldrums last summer but has thrived since being stepped up in trip winning four of his last eight starts over hurdles and fences for a trainer with a 22% strike-rate this season.
Top weight Gold Present is bound to be popular given that his course and distance win in December was so strongly boosted by the runner-up Frodon next time, but now 8lb higher, this could require a bit more from Nico de Boinville’s mount who has yet to win on ground softer than good-to-soft.
Recommended bets
2pts win Blaklion in 3.15 Haydock at 5/2
2pts win Holly Bush Henry in 2.25 Ascot at 6/1