Free racing tips: Best bets for Ascot on Long Walk Hurdle day

Racing betting tips: Saturday December 19

1pt win Saint Sonnet in 1.50 Ascot at 7/1 (minimum 6/1)

0.5pt e.w Third Wind in 2.25 Ascot at 28/1 (minimum 25/1)

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Say Halo to Saint’s Chance - 1.50 Ascot - Saint Sonnet

This looks open, as you’d expect. Tom Symonds can do little wrong at present and Saint De Vassy, will be top of most people’s lists after a ready win at Exeter. A 10lb rise looks just about enough to make me look elsewhere, but it would hardly be a surprise if he was up to the job.

I’ve been a fan of Enrichssant for a while and he looked the winner for 80% of his race at Doncaster last time, but in retrospect, maybe he was asked for his effort a bit too soon and if he’d been held onto for slightly longer, he might well have won. This is a tough contest to be pitched in, but there’s a chance that he gets an easy lead and if that’s the case, he looks back-to-lay material at worst.

Saint de Vassy is tempting after putting up a career best on heavy at Exeter on his return, and is definitely shortlist material, but I’m willing to take a chance on Saint Sonnet, who was not really at fault when pulled up in the Caspian Caviar at Cheltenham last weekend, and who was spared a hard race after being badly hampered.

His best form in France was on genuinely testing ground, and he’s been highly tried after winning a novice chase at Catterick on his debut for Paul Nicholls. His seventh in the Marsh Chase at Cheltenham was a very good effort for one so inexperienced, with a bad mistake at the 11th seeing him lose a good position when travelling well. He went through that race as if not far behind the principals in terms of ability, and is sure to prove that point another time.

Saint Sonnet will appreciate the change of scenery after failing to complete on both starts at Cheltenham since. He’s a hard horse for the handicapper to assess, and there is every chance that he’s on a mark that he can exploit.

Can Gun ‘Em Down - 1.30 Haydock - Pistol Park

Rory has been at the dentist’s today (appointment time - two thirty, I’m not even kidding) but we spoke whilst we had the chance beforehand and as tends to be the case on a Saturday, we are approaching many of the bigger races from different angles. As such, it’s the supporting races that make a bit more appeal for a wager.

Ball D’Arc looks an interesting recruit for the excellent Laura Morgan, but he may need this after an absence. I’ll watch him with interest, with a view to future handicaps, perhaps on slightly better ground, in mind.

The question to ask here is which Pistol Park turns up - the one that ran a cracker against two much higher-rated rivals at Ayr on his reappearance, or the one that drifted like the Kon-Tiki (ask yer mum) in the market at Chepstow and ran like a drain.

If it’s the latter then I’m throwing good money after bad, but with the cheekpieces removed (they didn’t seem to do a lot for him at Chepstow, that’s for sure) I may give him one more try. After such a poor run I can’t really convince myself he can be a recommended bet, as his profile is so patchy, but the previous form says I ought to give him one more chance.

Return To Sender - 12.20 Haydock - Elvis Mail

A very exciting novice hurdler last year, Elvis Mail made an immediate impression over fences when scoring at Ayr on his chase debut last month. That win, on its own doesn’t tell the whole story though, as his fencing was far from fluent, making numerous mistakes and the odd slow jump on the way around, but what wasn’t in any doubt is that the engine is well and truly intact, and he was able to put that to good use in the closing stages. He won a shade cosily in the end.

He’s got his conditions again here, and although the Haydock fences are a test, the ground is going to slow things up, which will give him time at his fences, and with Sam Twiston-Davies in the saddle, he should improve plenty on that first effort. On the figures he’s got plenty to find with Cornerstone Lad, but his pedigree is hardly that of a chaser (even if he does have the size) and I can’t ever say I’ve looked at him with conviction and thought he’d make a better chaser than hurdler. Needs to improve his fencing, but I like him a lot more than Rory does.

Rory’s convinced he’s a good thing if there’s low sun, tomorrow, though…

Make It Pay, Pal - 2.50 Newcastle - Palixandre

Palixandre’s total so far reads - five runs, one (lucky) win and three trainers, but he’s very much on the “one to watch” list after his first chase start for Sam England at Wetherby last month.

Once again, as he has been for all his starts so far, he was far too keen, and as a result his jumping suffered, but having said that he never looked like falling and it got a little better as the contest went on.

He travelled well at the rear and when asked for some effort, made ground up easily enough but no sooner had that happened than the leaders quickened again, and he came home in his own time.

A hood is applied today to try and help him settle, but I’d be more worried about very soft ground today, which may not suit. With that in mind, he’s one to watch today, but I’m sure his shrewd yard will find a race for him before much longer.

Some Kind Of Wind Up - 2.25 Ascot - Third Wind

(Rory says) I’m not sure the Long Walk is a betting race for me, as I am interested in Main Fact in the conditions and think he might well be suited by how the race is run, but his task on paper is much stiffer than anything he’s faced before, and I was hoping for much bigger odds.

To illustrate, he was actually receiving 1lb from Third Wind when beating that rival by 2¾ lengths at Haydock last time, but while Third Wind is 33/1 to win this, Main Fact is only 5/1, and that seems to prove that the Pipe horse is expected to be overbet by the public due to his remarkable run of handicap wins.

It’s hard to be adamant that he’s not going to be capable of making further progress, but Fergus Gillard is unable to claim in the Grade 1 event, and he’s effectively going from running off 140 in a handicap to taking on the best in the business at level weights. I could back him, but not at single figures, and instead we’ll have a small each-way bet on Third Wind, as we think both those prices are wrong, with one being a little bigger, and one shorter.

Published at 1730 GMT on 18/12/20

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