Rory Delargy had a big-priced winner with Barton Knoll on Friday and David Massey bids to cap a great week for our Punting Pointers team on Saturday.
Recommended Bets: November 28
1pt win Mance Rayder in 12.05 Doncaster at 10/1 (minimum 9/1)
1pt win Shantou Village in 3.15 Newcastle at 12/1 (minimum 10/1)
1pt win The Russian Doyen in 3.35 Newbury at 11/1 (minimum 10/1)
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Blinkers Could Be Key - 3.35 Newbury - The Russian Doyen
For all that he often races over further and on softer ground, his record at 2m and on good ground reads perfectly well enough and includes a C&D win here from last year. He once again shaped like a non-stayer in the Paddy Power, travelling well for a long way but not getting home, and this drop back to 2m could be just what he wants.
The application of blinkers today makes him even more interesting, as Colin Tizzard is one of the more reluctant of the top trainers to use them (only one of his last 100 runners has worn them, that being Theatre Guide) and when he does, it tends to be for a good reason. Punters backing his runners in first time blinkers blind this century would be making good profit.
He takes a drop in grade here, and Harry Cobden, who has been on him for what are arguably his best runs, is back on board today.
Do It For Us, Village - 3.15 Newcastle - Shantou Village
Plenty of these have something to prove at present, either on grounds of wellbeing or in the case of a couple of them, the suitability of the trip, and a shortlist isn’t hard to draw up.
Pym and The Butcher Said will head up most people’s idea of potential winners, as both may well have more to come, but small field novice chase wins are one thing, handicaps are another, and we’d rather bet at Shantou Village at the foot of the handicap.
It would be fair to say that things haven’t quite gone to plan for Shantou Village after a very successful novice chase campaign, and he hasn’t won a race for some time, but he’s better handicapped as a result and a change of headgear (to a visor, on again today) produced his best effort for 18 months in a competitive veterans handicap at Chepstow last time out, beaten just under two lengths into fourth. He’s 3lb out of the handicap here, but he’s still looks well handicapped given he’d have been placed in the Kerry National from 5lb higher had he not unseated at the last.
Back, In Black? - 12.20 Newcastle - Acdc
A race worth a second look, as likely favourite Cedar Hill has been winning over shorter, and he has no form to speak of over this 20f trip. Indeed, he looked a weak finisher when last tried at it, that being over hurdles at Sedgefield in August, and he looks worth taking on from an 11lb higher mark than his Kelso win three weeks ago.
If there was a pace to aim at, Well Smitten might have been the selection, having won twice around this trip since joining Sam England last December, but he tends to be held up and enjoys creeping into races that come back to him in the latter stages. There’s no guarantee of a strong pace here, and unless Ascot De Bruyere goes on (and that isn’t a given), this could be slowly run.
Acdc is risky, as he is seemingly on the downgrade, but his current mark reflects that and he won’t mind if this is slowly run, having won a couple of similarly run races in the past. He’s often gone well after a short break, running some of his better races, and will like the good ground. In the hope he can recapture former glories, fresh might be the time to catch him, and at 20-1 and bigger, I’d try a small play.
A Fine Ro-Mance - 12.05 Doncaster - Mance Rayder
Not the strongest contest you’ll see today, and one that looks open.
Lord Brendy would be an obvious candidate but his jockey has yet to ride a winner in 80-odd rides, and so Mance Rayder is the one that gets our vote.
He’s shaped a bit better than his finishing position would suggest in his last two starts, staying on nicely from the rear at Carlisle (hurdles) and then fourth to runaway winner Epsom Des Mottes over 3m here last time, looking ready for a bit further in the process. He’s got 6l to find with runner-up Furius De Ciergues on that, but he’s 3lb better off and wasn’t best placed that day (the 1-2-3 were the 1-2-3 from the outset) so he has a chance of reversing the form. Doncaster’s easy fences should help too, as he can make the odd error, and with the trainer having a 22-1 winner at the last meeting here, he’s in good form too.
Fire Away - 3.07 Bangor - Georgian Firebird
Another weak looking contest that’s there for the winning.
The booking of Cillin Leonard for top weight Quiet Penny catches the eye in this conditionals contest, even more so as the horse is having her first start for Jamie Snowden, but we’ve not seen her for over 18 months and how she’ll cope with what could still be soft ground is open to question. Rollercoaster, in a similar vein, has her first start for Michael Scudamore (after wind surgery) and these connections have landed a touch or two, so she’s at least worth a look in the market from a platers mark.
The last time Georgian Firebird won a race was at Towcester, which gives you some idea it’s been a while, but that masks some decent efforts from her in this sort of company, not least at Huntingdon last time where she would have hit the frame (and might have won) had she stood up three out. Given that was over a trip that would be her bare minimum as well (20f), you can mark the effort up a little, and this 23f on soft ground is much more her thing.
Cheekpieces go on, which I’m fairly neutral about, but she is ridden by the much improved Philip Armson, who has ridden four winners this season and gave Optimistic Bias a lovely winning ride from the front at Uttoxeter last week, the horse looking very keen early and doing a good job in getting him to settle.
There could be money around tomorrow for both Quiet Penny and Rollercoaster, and if Georgian Firebird were to drift to double figures, we’d make her a small each-way bet, given the shape of the race.
Posted at 1745 GMT on 27/11/20
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