Free racing tips: Betting advice from leading tipster David Massey

Recommended Bets: November 21

1.5pts e.w Third Wind in 2.25 Haydock at 13/2 (take no lower)

1pt e.w Flashjack in 2.25 Haydock at 66/1 (minimum 40/1)

0.5pts e.w Irish Roe in 1.50 Haydock at 33/1 (take no lower)

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Wind Can Blow Them Away - 2.25 Haydock - Third Wind/Flashjack

There are days when Rory and I disagree about many things - will he/she stay, will they act on the ground, who made a pass at whose wife (he’s imagining it), that sort of thing, but on the 2.25 at Haydock we are in complete agreement about the two horses we want to be with - one, due to his rock-solid form and the other simply overpriced. So we’ll back them both, with the extra places, as we can see both of them figuring at the finish.

Third Wind is the solid one. Stepped up to 3m for the Pertemps Final last season, he did best of the English brigade, finishing an 8¾l fourth to Sire Du Berlais, and that form could hardly have worked out much better. Sire Du Berlais has since won at Grade 2 level, The Storyteller took the Grade 1 Ladbrokes Champion Chase at Down Royal, beating the Cheltenham third home Tout Et Permis in the process. It simply looks like a very strong piece of form.

Third Wind ran well on his reappearance at Newbury when a close fifth behind Dell Arca and much as was the case last year, you can expect him to come on plenty for that. There’s a lot to like about his chance today, with the ground ideal.

At 40-1 and bigger, we can’t ignore Flashjack either. Both of us had him pegged around the 20-1 mark for this, given he’s only 3lb higher than his C&D win last year (which he seemed to get little credit for - the world and his dog seemed to be on the runner-up, the odds-on Big Shark that day) and it isn’t as if he ran badly on his reappearance either, bang in the firing line two out at Aintree only to get tired late and finish a respectable fifth. Henry Daly has already done us one big favour with one of his staying handicappers recently, and he could well do us another here.

Back both with those firms paying six places (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power - the latter two bookies are paying 66-1 Flashjack).

Go With Roe - 1.50 Haydock - Irish Roe

We’d had a look at Irish Roe yesterday morning as a possible for this, given she is very genuine, tries hard and was a solid fifth off the same mark in this last year, but initially we passed her over on the fact that Peter Atkinson hadn’t had a runner since February, which was a concern.

That was before he won the bumper at Catterick yesterday, though, and I knew at that point the phone was about to ring. “I think we might need to look at Irish Roe again…”.

At the age of nine, Irish Roe has no secrets from anyone, but she goes well fresh, handles the ground, and the booking of Sean Quinlan is no bad thing either. She’s worth a small e/w bet with the extra places, the price an insult to her ability and consistency.

Hills are 33s and go six places.

Don Can Dish It Out - 3.35 Haydock - Don Poli

I have no great opinion on the last, the 3m4f handicap chase, but if the rain does come in any great measure, it’s going to turn into a last-man-standing contest and if that happens, I’d probably want the old warrior Perfect Candidate on my side. But I’m not strong on him by any means, and Rory is a lot keener to get with Don Poli than I am, so it’s one of those races we’ll agree to disagree (see previous).

Rory’s case for Don Poli is simple enough. He looked to be enjoying himself in a couple of point-to-point wins last season and whilst they weren’t the greatest of races, they certainly weren’t the worst either. He was biting off a bit more than he could chew in the Foxhunters, but he looked on good terms with himself on his reappearance at Aintree, looking the winner when asked for his effort four out (and he was a willing respondent at that point), trading odds-on in running, and merely got tired in the latter stages. This test should suit him, and if he comes on from Aintree, he’s got every chance here.

Lip Up Fati - 4.30 Wolverhampton - Amor Fati

We went through the Ascot card a couple of times and simply couldn’t find a bet - the ones we liked are all towards the head of the market and priced correctly (First Flow and Magic Saint in the concluding handicap, Demachine in the novices handicap, for what they’re worth) but Wolverhampton throws up an interesting one, albeit with some caveats attached, namely Amor Fati in the first at 4.30.

His record over C&D this calendar year reads 9241, the win coming from a 3lb lower mark in October, and he gave the impression he was still in form when staying on from the rear to be beaten 4l at Newcastle earlier in the week. He’s won after a quick turnaround before, so that isn’t a concern, but the worry comes with the fact he can be slowly away, and stall 1 might not be ideal given that - he could find a wall of horses in front of him turning for home, and with no guaranteed pace, he’ll need to pick his way through.

I’d be wanting double figures, given all that, so he isn’t a bet at present, but if he drifts, then I’d try a small win bet.

Posted at 1800 GMT on 20/11/20

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