Free racing tips: Betting advice from leading tipster David Massey

Recommended Bets: October 31

1pt win Whoopsey in 12.47 Ascot at 12/1 (minimum 8/1)

1pt win Ard Chros in 1.35 Wetherby at Betfair SP

2pts win Roksana in 2.45 Wetherby at 11/4 (9/4 minimum)

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12.47 Ascot - Whoopsey Can Leave ‘em Dazed

It goes without saying that in a race of this nature, a novices handicap hurdle, there’s potential all around but at the foot of the handicap it’s Henry Daly’s Whoopsey that catches our eye.

Like so many from the yard, she’s been learning as she goes and with that, it was good to see her put in a better round of hurdling at Exeter last time, given she made a few mistakes at Bangor the time before, where she never really looked that happy.

A step up to 2m4f looks sure to suit, both on the visuals (she finished off well at Exeter without being knocked around) and on breeding, with her full sister Angel Of Harlem twice a winner at trips around 3m. Another good step forward can be expected today, and the yard is bang in form after a couple of winners on Friday.

1.35 Wetherby - Ard To Nail It

An open race, with the early books going 3/1 the field, and cases can be made for a few.

Dandolo De Gite looks sure to win more races this term but she hasn’t been seen for well over a year, and might find the ground a bit too slow for his liking. Minella For Me ran well on his Warwick reappearance when beaten less than a length and appears fairly weighted on old form, but at a big price Ard Chros makes some appeal.

A winner at Ayr back in January, his jumping technique has effectively held him back (even in that victory, his jumping was far from perfect) from progressing but it was a bit better, bar one poor leap, at Carlisle on his reappearance earlier in the month. Held up that day, whereas he made all for his Ayr win, so in the hope of a return to front-running tactics, which in turn ought to lead to a better round of jumping, he’s returned to a winning mark and this step up in trip should suit for a yard back among the winners recently.

With the possibility of a non-runner in She’sasupermack, who is doubly declared and may well go to Ayr, we’ll take the potential of any Rule 4’s out by backing him at Betfair SP.

3.40 Ascot - Militarian To March On

With many of the firms going extra places on this race, it opens it up for an each-way bet and with a few of these getting the red pen on various counts we ended up with a shortlist of four.

Sadly, three of those are towards the front end of the market and are probably priced up correctly. Black Corton is 2lb lower than when third in this event last year and we’d argue this is not as strong as last year’s renewal, so he’d have to go on the list. Commanche Red has potential to be top class this year and his defeat of Simply The Betts at Kempton last December reads very well. The two questions with him are whether he’ll need the run after an absence, and the step up to 3m, but all the same he cannot be ruled out. Whatmore also has the potential for better this year, but the market has him well found too.

Which leaves us with the lightly-raced 10yo Militarian, who almost always goes off a big double-figure price for these quality handicaps but has plenty of talent, as he showed when scoring at 50/1 over this C&D on his reappearance last year, and again ran to that form when fourth at Cheltenham on New Years Day. He had a breathing operation after a moderate effort on his next start but never really got involved in the Kim Muir on his final start of last season.

Catching him fresh might be key - his record after a 150+ day break reads 7221, and given he’s now only 1lb higher than last season’s Ascot win, looks fairly handicapped too. There may be more likely winners, and this is very much a bet at the price with the extra places, but there’s always more than one way of trying to make a quid or two out of a race.

Sadly, the price has rather gone as the day has progressed, and at the current prices a bet couldn’t be recommended. There’s a fair chance that he drifts back a bit tomorrow though, and if he went back to 20-1 plus, he’d be a bet with the extra places. Good to see the trainer having a winner at Uttoxeter today, too.

2.45 Wetherby - Rok Can Roll Up

One thing Rory and I slightly disagree on is the strength of the form of last season’s Stayers' Hurdle. Part of that might be my pocket talking because I had a few quid on the winner (in the without the favourite market, shrewd) whereas Rory points to the fact that barely anything that was fancied ran its race, and as such the rating given to the winner looks too high. I’ll counter by saying the speed figure for the race was good, but all the same, one thing we do agree on is that, in receipt of almost a stone here, Roksana ought to head the market.

Roksana tends to race at the intermediate 2m4f trip, but you can’t argue with her form on the rare occasions she does tackle 3m - a 1½l second to Santini, and a head defeat to If The Cap Fits, both in the Aintree version of the Stayers' - both of which read as well as anything here.

Denied that opportunity last season, she nevertheless looked like she was ready for another crack at 3m when fourth to Honeysuckle in the Mares Hurdle, and with Dan Skelton concentrating more on quality than quantity this season, she can take this en route to a possible crack at the big one come March.

4.17 Ascot - Tread Warily With Arturus

Only one firm have priced up the Ascot bumper at the time of writing, and they have made Arturus a 6/4 chance. On paper he’s very appealing, being an expensive close relative of the mighty Hurricane Fly.

A word of warning on that pedigree, however, as the dam, Scandisk, was 20 when she foaled him, and plenty of her previous offspring have proven disappointing, with Blixt, the third best of her many foals on ratings, a very moderate animal who Willie Mullins struggled to get a win out of. Arturus is not necessarily the nascent superstar his pedigree and price-tag suggest, so don’t pile in at short prices.

Preview posted 1733 GMT on 29/10/2020

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