David Massey is in the punting pointers hotseat for Saturday's action and he fancies one at Chepstow who looks 'perfectly primed' to retain her crown.
Recommended Bets, October 10
1pt win The Bay Birch in 4.32 Chepstow at 11/2 (minimum 9/2)
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Bay To Make It Pay: The Bay Birch, 4.32 Chepstow
One that went straight on the “next time out” list after her Warwick third was The Bay Birch, an admirable mare that more than pays her way in good handicap company.
She took this race last year, and looks to have been perfectly primed to retain her crown. That win basically blew the rest of her season, with a mark that was simply too high from her to work from (at one point last season, she was rated higher than top chase mares La Bague Au Roi and Lady Buttons) but she’s now back on a much more workable mark, 7lb below last year’s win.
I was at Warwick for that reappearance and on paddock viewing thought the run would put her straight, so it was good to see her travel like the best horse through the contest, going clear around the final turn before tiring and getting picked up by an in-form and race-fit Templepark. (Much to my annoyance, I might add - in that morning’s chat with Rory, he was mad keen on Templepark, and me The Bay Birch. I was feeling quite smug three out. “What does that Delargy know…”)
With that under her belt, and conditions fine, she can go close today.
It All Adds Up: Steely Addition 2.47 Chepstow
A very competitive handicap where Ballyoptic bids for back-to-back wins in the race. He won well last year but is 11lb higher this time around and to win this off a mark of 163 really would be some performance.
I’ve got a lot of time for Boldmere, unlucky not to be unbeaten in his last three starts after coming down in the Towton with the race at his mercy, but plenty from the yard come on for a run, and I’m happy to watch him today.
The more it dries the better the chance of Potterman, but at the prices I’m going to chance Steely Addition. You’ve got to write off his two runs last season, but his reappearance against Santini at Sandown smacked of a pre-Ladbrokes Trophy sighter, and then he probably found the combination of trip and ground just too much in the Haydock Grand National Trial, where he travelled well for a long way after a break.
If his yard have got him back to the sort of form that saw him win over C&D here in 2018 then he starts to look attractively weighted, and given he’s won fresh, the absence since February ought not be an issue either.
There’s a degree of guesswork required to back him, which means you’d need a biggish price to justify a bet, but he’s certainly well treated on his best form, and he’s worth a small investment at 20/1 or bigger.
At the time of writing he's 14s, so we'll leave him alone for now and keep an eye on the market.
Back In Trip: Pads 3.03 Hexham
Those who know me well will know this is my sort of race to get stuck into, 0-100 chases are very much in my wheelhouse and whilst the glitz and glamour might be elsewhere,
Hexham (if you’ve not been and you get the chance, go, it’s a wonderful track) will be one of the focuses of my attention this afternoon. Pads tends to race over further but when there’s enough pace on, he can cope with a drop back to the minimum trip as he showed when easily scoring over C&D last December, coming right away in the closing stages.
And this race looks to have a few that will vie for the front-runners role - Black Kettle, Event Of Sivola, Clondaw Fixer, plus both Timcoda and Miss Amelia have led in recent starts - and a good pace looks assured.
Pads has had a couple of sighters over hurdles to get him fitter and this looks a decent opportunity for him.
That win came in heavy ground but it’s soft at Hexham as I type, and as the only C&D winner in the field, he has that to his advantage on this specialists track. As well as that win last year, he hit the frame on five of his other 11 starts, which makes him look quite attractive as an each-way bet if double figure odds are available.
Again, at the time of writing he's a best of 8s, but keep an eye on the developing market.
Newmarket Draw Pointer
The stalls at Newmarket on Saturday will be on the stands side, providing fresh ground after Friday’s meeting where they were on the opposite side of the track. That could see a swing in the draw bias at the track, and punters should be wise to such possibilities.
In the last three decades, there have been four times when a similarly large number of runners have lined up for the Dewhurst and on each occasion, the race was won by a horse drawn on or near the stands rail, with three of those exposed runners at big prices, namely Tout Seul (25/1), Intense Focus (20/1) and Beethoven (33/1).
All four winners had raced at least four times previously, and with most of the fancied horses drawn low here, there are historical reasons to expect a bit of a turn-up.
For example, Devious Company may not be the no-hoper the market makes him out to be, as he fits all the criteria.
The Boadicea Stakes (4:15) has also been dominated by high numbers in recent years, so it may pay to focus on those racing near the rail again, subject to how the Dewhurst pans out.
Magic Trade: Mukha Magic as a back-to-lay in the Cesarewitch
Suffice to say we both had our own ideas of how to tackle the Cesarewitch, but one horse we both looked at was the potentially overpriced Mukha Magic, and how we could possibly play him.
I was looking at e/w with extra places, but a much simpler way might be as a back-to-lay, given he’s traded a fraction of his price on four of his last five starts.
In the Ascot Stakes, when third to the much-higher rated pair of Who Dares Wins and The Grand Visir, he traded 11 from a Betfair SP of 132, and even when finishing well beaten, as he did when eighth of 12 at Sandown in August, he still traded 3 from a Betfair SP of 27 due to his prominent style of racing.
The simplest way of playing such horses is backing at Betfair SP with a lay of double the stake at half the price, but you could just lay your stake back for a free bet, or look to lay very short for a bigger stake; it’s a case of different strokes for different folks, so be more or less aggressive according to how risk-averse you are.
Posted at 1755 on 09/10/20
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