Saturday Best Bets: Horse racing tips from Timeform Sporting Life team
By Sporting Life
15:23 · FRI October 04, 2024
The Timeform Sporting Life racing experts combine to provide their best bets ahead of Saturday's action.
Racing betting tips: Saturday October 5
1pt win Twafeeg in 2.05 Newmarket at 9/2 (General)
1pt win Hamish in 2.25 Ascot at 7/2 (General)
1pt win Wiltshire in 3.00 Ascot at 9/1 (Paddy Power)
1pt win Caius Chorister in 4.00 Longchamp at 8/1 (General)
1pt win Greek Flower in 4.00 Curragh at SP
Twafeeg – 2.05 Newmarket (Kieran Clark)
As expected for the prize money on offer it’s attracted a big field but plenty have something to find at the weights and the one that could outclass them is TWAFEEG.
Her defeat of Arabian Dusk on debut could not have worked out any better with the runner-up having gone on to land the Group 2 Duchess of Cambridge as well as finishing placed in the Cheveley Park last weekend. Twafeeg was then pitched into the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot - a race which has worked out well - and wasn’t disgraced with a mid-field finish.
The fact that she hasn’t been seen for nearly four months may be concerning, but it’s possible that she needed some time to mature taking her tall physique into consideration and if the usual stand rail bias is back in action then she’s very well berthed in stall 19 with improvement still on the cards.
Hamish – 2.25 Ascot (Mark Milligan)
Ascot’s Cumberland Lodge Stakes looks a good renewal, with both of the last two winners of the race lining up, while we also have an excellent supporting cast.
Al Qareem took last year’s renewal and he’s fully effective on soft ground, but I don’t think he’s quite as classy as the 2022 winner HAMISH, who hasn’t had things go right on his last couple of starts and will also relish the deep ground.
Hamish’s Coronation Cup effort in the Spring – when second to Luxembourg – is just about the best piece of form on offer in here and it’s far too soon to be suggesting he’s a back number even at the age of eight, particularly with conditions likely to be right up his street.
Nashwa - 2.40 Newmarket (Andrew Asquith)
I'm of the opinion that the three-year-olds have something to find with the older horses in this year's Sun Chariot and, given it is hard to be convinced by Inspiral at present, I think NASHWA looks a solid bet.
Nashwa was an impressive winner of the Falmouth Stakes on the July Course last year and went on to finish placed in the Nassau, the Juddmonte International and the Irish Champion Stakes on her next three starts. That is solid form, especially against the boys in the latter two races, and she was undone by the draw and racing more prominently than usual at Meydan when last seen.
Nashwa has reportedly been working well ahead of her return, and has also had a racecourse gallop, so she should be fit enough to do herself justice, while she might not even need to be at her best to win this.
She's still relatively unexposed at a mile and John & Thady Gosden had a welcome winner at Chelmsford on Thursday evening.
Wiltshire - 3.00 Ascot (David Johnson)
I was shocked at the initial betting for this contest when WILTSHIRE was priced up among the outsiders and though there’s been some correction in his price, it still looks too big to me as I’d make one of the favourites.
He’s clearly a much improved sprinter for William Haggas and having been kept away from quick ground after his defeat second time out this year returned from a break with a career-best effort at Haydock last week. That was his his first try at 5f, and even on heavy ground, he just got a bit too far back in the early stages before rattling home to be beaten just a head by Blue Storm, a progressive sprinter himself who wouldn’t have looked out of place in the opener.
A return to 6f very much looks in Wiltshire’s favour and on form he looks to hold claims at least as strong as any.
Greek Flower - 4.00 The Curragh (Billy Nash)
GREEK FLOWER hasn't had the rub of the green on more than one occasion this year but the stars look to have finally aligned for her here.
Runner-up in both the Rockingham and the Scurry at this track this year, she was a never-nearer third to Keke here last week when faring best of those with a single-figure draw.
The draw has been much kinder to Johnny Feane's charge this time, any rain will help (both wins on heavy ground) and the presence of a number of confirmed front runners means things should be set up nicely for one that likes to come from off the pace.
Caius Chorister - 4.00 Longchamp (Graeme North)
CAIUS CHORISTER has the comfortably best form in the Group 1 Prix de Royallieu at Longchamp on Saturday (4.00) having suffered narrow defeats this year in both the Sagaro Stakes and the Henry II Stakes and that’s no coincidence given that both those races were strongly-run affairs which is the key to her.
A winner of a listed race in France last year when sent straight to the front and setting an unrelenting gallop, she was a non-stayer in the Gold Cup and has then found herself out-speeded in tactical affairs on her last two starts including in the Lillie Langtry when behind the reopposing Term Of Endearment.
So long as her rider James Doyle rides her to her strengths this time and not her limitations as he did at Chester last time when partnering her for the first time – and I’m sure her trainer, ‘The Carpenter’ David Menuisier, who won this race in 2020 with Wonderful Story, will be giving stern orders to that effect - she has a far better chance from stall 6 than odds of 8/1 imply in what is a notably weak Group 1.
Published at 1522 BST on 04/10/24
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