Saturday Analysis: Cheltenham Festival clues aplenty after bonanza Trials Day

Can Jonbon bounce back from Nutz shocker?

JONBON did not look his usual self even before he ploughed through the fourth last fence in the rescheduled Grade 1 Clarence House Chase at Cheltenham on Saturday.

He’d made a mistake as early as the third and after that he was away to his left at a few fences, hanging to his left at times, too, jumping too big, and another stuttering leap at the last sealed his fate.

James Bowen worked miracles to keep the partnership intact after the fourth last incident and he coolly gave Jonbon time to recover, but the mistake ultimately took its toll as Elixir De Nutz battled his way to top-level glory under Freddie Gingell.

Clearly, this was well below Jonbon’s best, and not just due to the fourth-last error. It might’ve been physical, he certainly ran like a horse that was feeling something, or it could’ve been mental, a fragile temperament blown up after being brought to the boil for what should’ve been an assignment at Ascot a week ago.

So how do we tackle Jonbon in the future? This is evidence he’s not machine-like despite a near perfect career record, only Constitution Hill and El Fabiolo beating him before today.

I do think it should make punters think twice before taking very short odds about him, but Nicky Henderson is a genius at ironing out issues in his top horses and I would take odds-on prices about the master of Seven Barrows getting this horse back to his best again.

At the right price Jonbon could be a bet later this season. Nudging him out to 7/2 for the Champion Chase isn’t quite doing it for me yet, but it’s going in the right direction. And while he’s the sort of horse that can let punters down at short prices, like he did today, he remains talented enough to win good races against all the odds, as well.

Should Lossiemouth run in the Champion Hurdle?

Yes! Absolutely! Of course she should! And in an era where top-class hurdlers are so short in supply it is wrong that they can avoid each other at the Cheltenham Festival, a week that is built on defining champions.

You can understand connections going for the Mares’ Hurdle. After all, LOSSIEMOUTH’s an odds-on shot for that race now and the dream for any owner, even ones that have done it all like Rich and Susannah Ricci, is to have a Cheltenham Festival winner.

But this success in the Unibet Hurdle, run on Trials Day for the first time having moved from the December meeting, was so professional, and so impressive, that you have to think Paul Townend might well pick to ride her out of herself, State Man and Impaire Et Passe, if she were aimed at the Champion.

After all, State Man has been put in his place by Constitution Hill before. Impaire Et Passe has been put in his place by State Man. Lossiemouth is a new line of form, a fresh angle of attack, and she now deserves the chance to pit herself against the best hurdler the sport has to offer.

WATCH: Free video replay of Lossiemouth's brilliant win

Can we argue with 5/4 about Sir Gino for the Triumph?

It’s no wonder the bookmakers are running for cover. Generally 5/4 and 11/8 for the JCB Triumph Hurdle back at Cheltenham in March after this, and as short as even-money, SIR GINO looks a highly-talented juvenile hurdler considering the way he swatted away the previously impressive Burdett Road.

On this evidence he is the dominant force in the division, on UK shores at least, and the fact he learnt plenty from Kempton, putting in a much more assured round of hurdling, augurs well when factoring in the potential for more improvement again next time.

A big raw horse with loads of scope, he already looks a future chaser and wouldn’t be your typical Triumph Hurdle contender on looks, but talent alone could well see him home on Gold Cup Friday come March.

Having said all of that, the worry is he is beaten by a more typical two-mile hurdler, and with the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle still to come at the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown next weekend his new Triumph odds look tight, for all that he was very impressive indeed.

Could any of the Cotswold Chase crew win the Cheltenham Gold Cup?

No.

Oh. Short and sweet. Any other thoughts on the race?

AHOY SENOR is a good-looking horse with a big engine but he cannot jump a fence. This was actually one of his better rounds of jumping, the small field and getting plenty of space playing to his strengths, but he’s simply not getting better at his fences and surely the time has come to revert to hurdles?

With the French horse Theleme ruled out of the Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle that race has an extremely open look to it and Ahoy Senor could be a player there, if Lucinda Russell is willing to change tack.

He is entered in the race and he is 33/1, so he’s on the radar.

And what about the Cleeve Hurdle with the Stayers’ in mind?

What an amazing horse NOBLE YEATS is. Winning the Grand National as a novice, finishing fourth in a Gold Cup and now he’s reinventing himself as a staying hurdler, beating the old warrior Paisley Park who is STILL thriving at the age of 12 in a pulsating Cleeve Hurdle.

This is traditionally the best of all the trials on Trials Day, regularly finding the Stayers’ Hurdle winner, and who is to say the wily Emmet Mullins can’t pull the double off? Well backed into 3/1 to get the job done, those closest to him must’ve been confident he was in the groove at home.

Yet while the Irish conquered Cheltenham again here, Noble Yeats pulling off the Mullins-Mullins treble after Capodanno and Lossiemouth earlier on, you get the distinct feeling that Team Ireland have bigger guns to fire in this division.

Irish Point, Teahupoo, Sir Gerhard, Monkfish, I’m looking at you. Perhaps this year the Cleeve isn’t the trial to take out of Trials Day…

Finally, is Ginny’s Destiny Stage Star II?

I think he might be. Make no mistake, this was a Grade 1 novice performance in the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase, as shrugging off 12 stone and a mark of 147 to dominate a field of progressive rivals who were getting lumps of weight was no easy feat.

GINNY’S DESTINY made it look easy, though, despite being pestered for the lead by the well-backed Prairie Wolf who kept him honest throughout. Behind those two were Theatre Man and Es Perfecto, the former running on strongly for second and the latter a good third after being too keen but jumping beautifully.

To give Theatre Man 13lb, and Es Perfecto and Prairie Wolf 23lb, was highly commendable and new odds of 8/1 for the Turners still underestimate him for my money. The looming presence of Gaelic Warrior hangs a shadow over this particular antepost market, but for all that he looks a very smart novice chaser he is 0/2 at the Festival and he does still have other options.

The Turners undoubtedly looks the race for Ginny’s Destiny, who could well follow in stablemate Stage Star’s path – that horse winning this race off a 5lb lower mark before his Festival glory last year.

Ginny’s Destiny’s destiny could well be the same and if I had to back one now following the Trials Day action, it would be him.

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