Sandown and Haydock tips: Best value bets for Saturday April 29
By Matt Brocklebank
Horse Racing
Sat April 29, 2023 · 2y ago
It's the final day of the jumps season and our man has a bumper five selections for Sandown and Haydock this Saturday.
- The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Following all of Matt’s tips to advertised stakes/odds since he took over from Ben Linfoot in June 2020 would have produced over 105pts profit.
- This year he's tipped winners Aucunrisque at 14/1, Maskada at 25/1, Stage Star at 11/1, Tiger Jet at 16/1 and Rebel Territory at 7/1.
Value Bet tips: Saturday, April 29
1pt win Certainly Red in 2.15 Sandown at 11/1 (General)
1pt win Court Master in 2.15 Sandown at 33/1 (General)
1pt win Black Gerry in 2.50 Sandown at 25/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power, BetVictor, bet365)*
1pt win Gloire D’athon in 3.25 Sandown at 14/1 (General)
1pt win Rainbow Fire in 3.45 Haydock at 6/1 (General)
*Black Gerry was declared a non-runner at 07:23 this morning
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*From next Friday May 5, Matt's Value Bet column will initially be available exclusively from 3pm-4pm for qualified Sporting Life Plus customers. You can read more about Sporting Life Plus and the Sky Bet Club via this link.
Take two against well-treated favourite
COURT MASTER was initially declared at Perth on Friday but it looks significant connections were prepared to wait an extra day and run from out of the weights in Saturday’s valuable bet365 Gold Cup.
He was due to be a little over a stone out of the handicap proper had Hewick been confirmed for this race but instead he’s 'just' 7lb wrong and the booking of Beau Morgan negates that issue, in theory at least.
Teenager Morgan, attached to Ben Pauling’s yard and brother of the new champion conditional Luca Morgan, is obviously still able to claim 7lb due to his lack of experience but he’s not short on talent either and has booted home five winners from 25 rides for Pauling this season.
He’s 0-4 for Michael Scudamore but a couple of those have finished in the frame and it just looks a really positive booking for this interesting outsider.
Court Master hasn't raced for 306 days and the last time we saw him on track he was pulled-up, which obviously raises a few questions, but there were extenuating circumstances at Taunton that day as he was struck into and was eased off lame before jumping the second fence, while the subsequent layoff could in fact turn out to be a positive when weighing up the 10-year-old’s credentials.
After all, his record when fresh from a break of 50 days or more includes four wins and a second, while he’s typically best caught straight after wind surgery too so the fact he’s had another (fifth) breathing op since the turn of the year isn’t necessarily a bad thing at all.
He goes on just about any ground but will be happiest if conditions remains on the better side of soft and I like the return of the cheekpieces he was wearing when winning at Newcastle last February, after which he was fourth to Win My Wings in the Eider Chase and a creditable eighth behind the same horse in the Scottish Grand National 12 months ago.
He’s come down 3lb since Ayr on the back of just the one (swiftly aborted) outing, so even having to effectively run off 134 he’s just 6lb higher than when last successful before the rider's claim is taken into account.
That quality staying form from last term reads perfectly well in the context of this highly competitive contest and, with Scudamore sending out two winners, two seconds, two thirds and a couple of fourths for good measure already this month, the long odds on offer may just underestimate his chance.
Kitty’s Light, really unlucky when third past the post in this in 2021 (promoted to second) and third last year, is a super horse and he’s remarkably well-handicapped too given he gets to run off the same mark as when successful in the Scottish Grand National last Saturday. In here off 140, he’s 5lb lower than for this race 12 months ago, making him 9lb better off with runner-up Musical Slave who runs from 1lb out of the weights, and the favourite's chance is an obvious one.
His price is plenty skinny enough for me, though, and if you’re taking him on then you’ve just got to hope the occasionally sticky jumping and tough recent schedule may begin to catch up with him, as he won the Eider over a marathon trip towards the end of February as well.
I'm going double-handed in a bid to get him beat and although The Goffer, Enrilo and Coolvalla all merit respect, I can’t ignore CERTAINLY RED at double-figure odds.
He's been a bit of a sensation for West Sussex trainer Lydia Richards, rising from a mark of 116 last spring to win his fourth handicap chase from 135 at Wincanton earlier this year. That rating has now shot up again to 142 but he must be one of the most progressive chasers around and I reckon he can defy the assessor again with a bold show.
The victory from Gemirande over two and a half miles here in January was remarkable given the trip was clearly on the short side, while the runner-up has franked the form with a subsequent win and some excellent placed form in Graded handicaps at Newbury and Cheltenham to boot.
So we know he likes this course, he very much shapes like he’ll stay all day long and I really liked his little prep run over hurdles at Ascot earlier this month, when outpaced before the turn into the straight and sensibly looked after by Rex Dingle when it became clear he was never going to be involved in the finish.
It was quite an eyecatching outing all told as he jumped the first few flights way too big – half-expecting fences no doubt – and on the evidence of that run he most likely remains in very good heart. This is the toughest race he’s contested, but the positives outweigh that fact and his price looks more than fair.
Improving Gloire still going strong
GLOIRE D’ATHON, another winning machine from a relatively small yard, looks to represent good value in the bet365 Josh Gifford Novices’ Handicap Chase.
He’s looked a different animal since being switched to fences by Sarah Humphrey and completed a hat-trick of wins when scoring over this course and distance in early-December.
I loved the way he toughed it out that day and while only having a neck to spare over the reopposing Fable at the line, he was visibly dossing after hitting the front and would almost certainly have pulled out more if needed. The runner-up, as well as the third home Raffle Ticket, have both won since to put some gloss on the merit of the form and Gloire D’athon returned from 73 days away to post a perfectly creditable second to Lord Baddesley at Plumpton when last sighted in February (fourth won since).
The winner just proved too nippy for him around that tight track and he’ll relish the return to Sandown, with good to soft ground of no concern whatsoever. Aidan Coleman keeps the ride and the general 14/1 could prove way too big.
Get ready to Fire at Haydock
I can leave Leicester’s televised Madri Excepcional King Richard III Cup Handicap alone – I’m still coming to terms with Bopedro beating Empirestateofmind at Newmarket's Craven Meeting – but can't resist RAINBOW FIRE in the Join Racing TV Now Handicap up at Haydock.
This is a cracker of a race and chances can be given to loads of them, not least the likes of Montassib and Boardman who - like Bopedro - ran in the Lincoln which continues to work out very well, but Marco Botti’s unexposed horse at the foot of the weights stands out a mile.
Quite promising for John and Thady Gosden at two and far from disgraced in a couple of outings for them following a lengthy layoff last spring, he moved across Newmarket in the autumn and won on debut for his new yard from a mark of 90 at Newbury.
He was subsequently put away for the winter and made a hugely promising reappearance when second behind Clive Cox's potential Group horse masquerading as a handicapper, Kingdom Come, at Kempton earlier this month.
He's been nudged up another 3lb for his troubles but is open to loads more improvement after six lifetime starts and the ground should be perfect for him here as he looks to enhance his very tidy strike-rate (2-3) on turf.
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Published at 1500 BST on 28/04/23
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