Matt Brocklebank tipped a 16/1 winner at Newbury last weekend and has a selection for Sandown this afternoon.
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Value Bet tips: Saturday December 6
1pt win Ballygriffincottage in 3.35 Sandown at 10/1 (General)
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Jonbon remains extremely hard to dislike but the fact it’s 18 years since Kauto Star was the last back-to-back winner of the Betfair Tingle Creek should serve as a reminder for punters just how hard an achievement that is.
Having said that, he’s a form standout while a true end-to-end gallop thanks to the likes of Master Chewy, Quilixios and Edwardstone, who seems likely to switch back to more prominent tactics, should help tee things up nicely for the market leader.
He didn’t seem to impress everyone when winning the Shloer Chase at Cheltenham recently, but he was brilliant in that race last year before being a little less so when following up here at Sandown, and I know which way connections would prefer to have it.
I suspect he’ll improve a fair bit from the comeback this time and might just put on something of an exhibition, although the race for second could be interesting and JPR One might be in the right place to pick up the pieces given Brendan Powell seems likely to try and smuggle the Haldon Gold Cup winner into it from a little further back.
Either way, it's a race I’m happy to watch and learn from without getting too involved and, when it comes to Sandown at least, will look to keep the powder dry for BALLYGRIFFINCOTTAGE in the Betfair Exchange London National Handicap Chase.
On the face of it, the handicapper hasn’t really played ball with this horse this season as he’s been left alone after being beaten 16 lengths at Chepstow and falling at Cheltenham most recently.
However, you’d be hard pressed to take the first effort completely at face value as the ground was unsuitably quick (for him) and he was held up right out the back before making some late headway into fourth in a race that hasn’t worked out badly despite not throwing up a subsequent winner.
On top of that, the Prestbury Park fall came at the fourth fence so you couldn’t judge Ballygriffincottage on that either, so I’m happy to effectively put a line through the campaign to this point, when he might just start finding his feet again.
The nine-year-old hasn’t stood too much racing over the years but soft ground is clearly important to him and he looked a top staying novice at one point, especially when hammering Beauport and Quel Destin in testing conditions at Haydock.
That was a couple of years ago now, but last season showed he could be fully effective in staying handicaps from marks in the 130s and returning to this venue looks a plus as his only previous visit produced a close second back in March.
He’s currently rated 4lb higher than for that runner-up effort but was as high as 145 at one point and clearly isn’t going to look be out of place in this sort of company. The 10/1 seems quite generous.
Published at 1600 GMT on 06/12/24
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