Salvator Mundi's Timeform performance rating of 132 in the Sky Bet Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle was the lowest of Willie Mullins' 11 winners of the race.
Salvator Mundi did not need to match his previous rating of 137p to win what looked like a below-par renewal (replay below) and, in Timeform's view, his performance did not justify his price being cut for the Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle, for which he is the 7/2 favourite.
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There are reasons to expect improvement from Salvator Mundi as he is entitled to come on for his first run in eight months and, given the way he pulled, should be suited by a stronger pace. However, as things stand, Supreme second favourite Romeo Coolio (150p) is rated 13 lb higher based on his nine-length win in the Grade 1 Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown.
Timeform jumps editor Dan Barber, speaking on Nick Luck Daily, said: "Whilst taking into account history and what has gone before when it comes to Mullins-trained novices, if you are viewing it as 'does this horse deserve to be the price he is' I think a formbook punter would have to say no.
"It feels to me like there's still a hangover from a piece of form that will be nearly two years old by the time we get to the 2025 Cheltenham Festival, and that is the second to Sir Gino [at Auteuil]. It was very early on in their development and I think Salvator Mundi has shown since that he's not as good on the racetrack as his proximity to Sir Gino showed that day."
Barber added: "The previous three winners for Mullins in the race, Dysart Dynamo, Impaire et Passe and Mystical Power, ran to ratings in the 140s, with Dysart Dynamo heading those on 147. They all proved to be comparative first strings for their stable when they went to the Festival in their chosen race and I'm sure that will shape a lot of things as, frankly, they rarely get it wrong. But the figure he clocked at the weekend of 132 bare form - and an overall master rating retained at 137p - is half a stone or more removed from what those three previous winners had run to."
On the Supreme pecking order, Barber said: "Romeo Coolio is well clear of his bunch among the two-milers... he's nearly a stone ahead of Salvator Mundi at this stage. That's not to say that Salvator Mundi can't or won't win as he's with a master trainer who has an exceptional record in the Supreme with similar types of horses, but the Sir Gino form feels like a price hangover and he's got a stone to find with the leader in the division."
Willie Mullins' Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle winners (ordered by Timeform performance ratings)
155 Mikael d'Haguenet (2009)
147 Dysart Dynamo (2022)
145 Douvan (2015)
145 Mozoltov (2013)
144 Getabird (2018)
144 Impaire et Passe (2023)
143 Mystical Power (2024)
140 Vautour (2014)
139 Min (2016)
136 Gagewell Flyer (2011)
132 Salvator Mundi (2025)
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