Ben Linfoot Saturday analysis | Royale team should go for Gold
Ben Linfoot assesses the Cheltenham Festival chances of Royale Pagaille, First Flow, Buveur D'Air and Tritonic in his Saturday analysis.
Saturday Reports
Royale team should go for Gold
What on earth does the handicapper do with ROYALE PAGAILLE now?
Raised 14lb to 154 on the back of a bloodless win at Kempton at Christmas, he had a rethink about that hike when the third home that day, Double Shuffle, who was over 22 lengths behind Venetia Williams’ horse, came out and franked the form with a win of his own at Kempton.
That meant the Susannah Ricci-owned horse was bumped up a further 2lb by way of collateral form, so he was asked to defy a rating of 156 in the Peter Marsh Handicap Chase at Haydock on Saturday, which he did, off top weight, in Haydock heavy, by 16 lengths.
On the bridle.
It was a superb performance, even if there was some notable help from those in behind. Three of his four market rivals immediately behind him in the betting failed to finish, which the handicapper will take into account, but runner-up Potters Legend is a solid mid-130s horse who ran his race.
Royale Pagaille gave him 20lb and beat him 16 lengths with ease. I think we’re looking at a 170-plus horse now and when you get one of those you have to go for the Gold Cup, don’t you? Especially when you’ve got the 7/4 favourite for the Festival Novices’ Chase in Monkfish. It makes the decision even easier.
Connections might well be tempted at having what would likely be an odds-on favourite in the National Hunt Chase, but that would be a disappointing route to take for such a classy horse.
There are questions that Royale Pagaille will have to answer at Cheltenham, whichever race he goes for. Most importantly – can he do it on an undulating track? He has been imperious on the flat terrains of Kempton and Haydock, but Prestbury Park offers a very different test.
Also, he’s likely going to have to prove himself on at least slightly better ground, too.
But these are questions that the very best horses have the answers to. And, although he’s officially a third-season novice, like last week’s hero Sky Pirate, he’s a proper horse and good enough to take his chance in the Gold Cup.
I’d take that chance while he’s in such terrific form.
First fantastic; Buveur disappoints
It’s difficult to assess heavy ground form with a view to the spring and if Royale Pagaille will eventually have to prove himself on better ground conditions, then so will FIRST FLOW who extended his winning sequence with a surprise win in the Grade One Clarence House Chase at Ascot.
This was a brave performance from both horse and jockey, with David Bass throwing his willing partner at the Ascot fences as they aggressively took on the in-form Politologue - and that looked to unsettle Paul Nicholls’ Champion Chaser at a crucial point of the race.
Politologue looked fresh on his second start of the season and forced Harry Cobden to let him get on with things, opening up a four-length gap early on in proceedings.
At that point it looked as though the fit and firing grey might make all, but Bass was alert to that and he pushed First Flow up alongside Politologue eight from home.
They jumped the seventh last in unison and then six from home Politologue reached for one, being a bit too long and a bit too flat, and that opened the door for First Flow who didn’t look back.
To be fair to Politologue that was a rare blip and he went down fighting, making First Flow’s seven-length win all the more meritorious.
Now a general 12/1 and a best of 14s for the Queen Mother Champion Chase, he’s an interesting contender in the division, but I do worry about that slightly better ground more with him than I do Royale Pagaille.
While we’re on the championship races at the Cheltenham Festival, a quick word on BUVEUR D’AIR’s second to Navajo Pass in The New One Unibet Hurdle up at Haydock, as it’s hard to see him landing a blow in the Champion Hurdle now.
He warmed to the task hurdling-wise, as he was a bit airy, for him, at the first couple, but he soon got back into the low, slick and quick routine.
More of a concern was the old engine, as he just didn’t have another gear when asked to pick up the 149-rated Navajo Pass, while receiving 3lb from that rival, in the straight.
Yes, this was particularly heavy ground and yes, it was his first run for 420 days following an injury. But you’d still want to have seen him win this race if he was to have Champion Hurdle aspirations and the 20/1 that he was pushed out to looks the right and correct move.
He still doesn’t make any appeal at those odds.
No surprise to see Tritonic trimmed and trimmed again
As far as bets go for the Cheltenham Festival it looks like some punters were getting stuck into TRITONIC for the Triumph Hurdle immediately after his debut win over timber in the opener at Ascot and I can absolutely see why.
Immediately cut to 16/1 by Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook, that quote held for eight minutes before it was readjusted to 12s and those latter odds could have some juice in them yet, while he is still available at 16s with Sky Bet.
This was the perfect mix of impressing enough while leaving something to work on and the early signs are he’s going to be a better hurdler than he was a Flat horse – and he wasn’t bad on the level, being rated 99.
Keen for the first mile, he got in close to the fourth last but that was the only time during the race his momentum faltered. If you’re being picky he dived a bit at the last, but he hit the ground running and that helped him reel in the long-time leader Casa Loupi who had got loose on the front end.
His finishing effort was really impressive and with the additional 30 yards making Saturday’s test 1m7f and 182 yards, you’d have to think the 2m1f of the Triumph, where there’s always an emphasis on stamina, could be right up his street.
It was interesting to hear Adrian Heskin say afterwards that he was always confident of reeling in the eventual runner-up, even from rounding the turn for home, so he must’ve given him some feel.
Connections have said that he’ll have another run before the Festival and that looks necessary, just to help him learn to settle and to give him more hurdling experience, too.
It will be interesting to see where Alan King takes him, as he could come back to Ascot next month and run in a novices’ hurdle against his elders – as his Balder Succes did after winning this race in 2012 – or he could go up in class and run in the Grade 2 Adonis Hurdle at Kempton.
King has won that race four times in the past, including with his 2005 Triumph Hurdle winner, Penzance, an early success story for the Barbury Castle handler who also took to hurdling well following on from a brief middle-distance career on the Flat.
Either route, or a different one I haven’t thought of, would give Tritonic another chance to enhance his Triumph Hurdle claims. He looks up to it, and though the race is shaping up to be a hot one thanks to impressive Irish hurdlers Zanahiyr and French Aseel, it wouldn’t be too much of a surprise if Tritonic heads the British challenge by the time the tapes go up for the Triumph.