Rory Delargy previews Sandown's high-profile Thursday evening fixture and has three recommended bets for the popular card.
Racing betting tips: Thursday May 27
2pts win Navello in 6.15 Sandown ay 9/4 (General)
2pts win Ranch Hand in 6.50 Sandown at 6/1 (General)
1pt win Epic Endeavour in 8.00 Sandown at 11/2 (General)
5:45 Play Coral 'Racing-Super-Series' For Free Handicap (1m2f)
Heavy ground prevails again at Sandown, and while she was beaten more than nine lengths over C&D last time, BORN TO PLEASE showed a return to form, and Mark Usher’s mare has built up a very solid record when the ground is very testing in this sphere. The daughter of Stimulation is not as reliable over hurdles, albeit capable of fair form, and she seemed to appreciate a return to the level here last time, despite being buffeted around a bit in the straight.
She made her challenge, such as it was, more towards the unfavoured far rail, and is a bit better than the bare result. In truth, she will be even more interesting down in class, as she has won all three of her starts in Class 6 company on soft or heavy, but she can hit the frame at lengthy odds here.
6:15 Coral 'Beaten By A Length' National Stakes (5f)
It used to be the case that punters merely needed to identify a runner with early speed and a low draw to find value in 5f events at Sandown, but that is no longer the case, particularly when the ground is soft. In the past five years there have been 18 races of six or more runners over C&D on good to soft or softer ground, and only four of those have gone to horses drawn in any of the lowest three stalls. The tendency to over-race in order to get on the supposedly favoured rail has been a feature of such races, and may be again, for all it may be dawning on riders that those tactics are no longer favoured.
This year’s National Stakes doesn’t have an obvious front runner, but the idea that the pace will therefore be modest is a little naïve, and I’d expect a few of the riders will fancy their chances of bagging an early lead. A sound pace should help quality to shine through, and NAVELLO is my idea of the one to beat in a truly run race. There is little between him and Chipotle on form, but George Boughey’s juvenile is proven on testing ground having produced his best effort to win the Lily Agnes at Chester last time by six lengths.
The runner-up flopped at York next time, but the time figure Navello put up on the Roodee was a smart one, and while it can be argued that the others are entitled to progress more given Navello has had four starts, it needs to be pointed out that he has by no means been standing still in form terms, and a moving target is harder to hit!
6:50 Coral Henry II Stakes (Group 3) 2m50y
Nayef Road is the one to beat on form, and he’s yet to reach the places in four runs at York, so it’s possible to forgive him a poor run in the Yorkshire Cup last time, for all that effort is an ugly one on his card. He’s showed he could handle very soft ground when runner-up in the Gold Cup last season, and the market expects this to rest between him and Roger Teal’s ex-bumper performer Ocean Wind; it could be argued, however, that neither Teal nor Mark Johnston are in great form (just 2 wins from 84 between them in the last fortnight), and Alan King is also on a losing run, which counts against the top-rated trio in the contest, and that makes me want to look closely at RANCH HAND, who has plenty to recommend him despite having a few lbs to find on the ratings.
Ranch Hand stays well, and is unexposed as a stayer on the Flat, having won all three starts at this trip since finding the Cesarewitch too stern an examination as a raw three-year-old. He’s a stronger and better horse now, and shaped well over an inadequate trip when fourth of 5 to Al Aasy in the Aston Park Stakes at Newbury last time having earlier won the Marathon at Lingfield’s All-Weather Finals day. His best effort last season came in the Listed Rose Bowl Stakes at Newmarket in the autumn, his only previous effort at this trip on turf, and that effort is backed up by an excellent time. This looks his best opportunity to break through at Pattern level.
7:25 Coral Brigadier Gerard Stakes (In Memory of Joe Mercer) (Group 3) 1m2f
It’s a lovely touch that this year’s Brigadier Gerard remembers the jockey who rode him in every one of his races, although this is far from a vintage renewal, with the over-rated Sangarius topping the market. In truth, this is a good spot for Sir Michael Stoute’s son of Kingman, but he his form has less substance to it that than his rating would suggest, and he failed to get Armory off the bridle in the Huxley Stakes on his return. There was a feeling that he was held up in his run there, but my view is that he simply took longer than expected to get to grips with an inferior front runner, and he’s a horse I want to take on.
EXTRA ELUSIVE was easily brushed aside by Waldkonig in the Gordon Richards Stakes over C&D last time, but he was weak in the market there, and had a subsequent Listed winner in Hukum immediately behind him, which puts a better slant on the form. That was his first start since an abortive trip to Saudi Arabia, and I would expect him to build on it, while his best effort in 2020 came when winning the Winter Hill Stakes in the mud at Windsor. He’s a better horse for teaming up with Hollie Doyle and being ridden more aggressively, settling better under those tactics, and while he has his limitations, he’s just about the best of these, and makes much more appeal at the prices than the overnight favourite.
8:00 Coral Whitsun Cup Handicap (1m)
EPIC ENDEAVOUR is a handicapper to follow this season, and can make the perfect start in the Whitsun Cup. William Muir and Christy Grassick’s four-year-old didn’t race as a juvenile, and progressed well when sent into handicaps last year, winning three of his last four on good or softer ground, and he progressed again to win on his first attempt at a mile on his final outing at Windsor. He remains totally unexposed at this trip, and looks well capable of defying a 6lb rise as long as he’s ready to go on this return.
To that end, it is mildly discouraging to find that of 14 returners for the Muir/Grassick stable in 2021, only one has won, but much more encouraging that those horses have beaten 69% of their rivals, and that is a better metric to use. I’d still expect him to progress from this, and have backed him for the Royal Hunt Cup next month, but he remains with plenty of upside.
Preview posted at 1655 BST on 26/05/21