Today's tips: Racing preview and best bets
By David Massey
Horse Racing
Fri November 15, 2024 · 3h ago
David Massey provides today's Punting Pointers and he has two selections at Cheltenham.
Racing Betting Tips: Friday November 15
1pt e.w Sweet David in the 2:55 Cheltenham at 10/1 (William Hill, min 9/1)
1pt win Gale Mahler in the 3:30 Cheltenham at 15/2 (General, min 11/2)
1:10 Cheltenham
With poor fields at Newcastle and Southwell, Cheltenham feels like the only show in town and although Friday’s card is inferior to Saturday and Sunday, there are a couple of races to bet on, starting with this conditional riders’ affair.
He may be the elder statesman of the party, but Whatsupwithyou has plenty going for him despite sitting near the top of the weights. He’s got good form in stronger races than this, and the 10lb that Callum Pritchard is able to claim is a gift, with the talented youngster showing what he could do when winning the Badger Beer at Wincanton last week, on that occasion only claiming 7lb as he was riding for an outside stable. That takes his weight down to a very manageable 11st 5lb and he should be very competitive given his consistent record when getting good ground and an intermediate trip over hurdles.
Whatsupwithyou was beaten just half a length by Doyen Quest in a 2½m handicap here at the April meeting, and that horse is fancied to score here on Sunday having run a blinder in the Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle at Chepstow last month. That form line is rock-solid and a repeat in almost identical conditions will see him placed here at the very worst. However, the fancy prices are long gone, and he can only be a solid mention at current prices.
2:55 Cheltenham
This is not the most competitive renewal of the meeting’s X-Country handicap, with class act Conflated putting the majority of the field out of the handicap, but whether he can be trusted after another below-par display in the Charlie Hall is a moot point. This is easier, and Rob James is stealing 7lb, but connections will have the Grand National as his target and are likely to be managing his handicap mark with that in mind.
French horses are often overlooked in the betting for these events, and that again looks the case with the Gabriel Leenders-trained SWEET DAVID, who is only a five-year-old but whose record since switched to this discipline in France reads 21222, with his penultimate effort coming in a Listed contest at Craon. He’s well out of the handicap, but his mark is essentially a guess, and he is fully effective on fast ground, which suggests he will be a much bigger player than the market reckons. Felix de Giles has a good record over C&D, finishing in the frame on eight of his nine rides in X-Country races here.
3:30 Cheltenham
Potters Charm and Valgrand were both impressive at the October meeting and their chances are clear enough to see, but GALE MAHLER appears to have now been priced up on that Valgrand defeat, which would give her plenty to find. However, her previous easy win at Galway would give her every chance here if she could repeat it, and with an extra half mile in her favour today, plus whatever ring-rustiness should have been knocked off with that run under her belt, she just looks a bit too big in the market this morning. We expect a better run today.
4:00 Cheltenham
I was all for putting up a small each-way wager on Callin Baton Rouge, who has no secrets from the handicapper - indeed, he might just about be in charge - but the 33/1 has gone and that means I've had to refer it to m'learned colleague. And he's less keen than I am, which means a mention rather than a bet.
Easy wins at Market Rasen and Stratford were followed up by, on the face of it at least, a lesser effort here last time out but she travelled well into the contest and held every chance two out before a mistake there cost her ground and momentum at a key time. She tried to get back into it but to my eyes simply didn’t stay the 2m4f trip, fading up the hill to finish eighth. To me, she gave the impression she was still in form and a drop back to two miles would suit her, as is the case here. She’ll be ignored in the betting because of her connections, and I think it would be wrong to dismiss her chances here.
Published at 1005 GMT 15/11/24
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