Record total in sight after Paul Nicholls' latest century?
Having notched a hundred winners for the season at Taunton last week, John Ingles looks at the stable's best prospects for further success.
Paul Nicholls wasn’t present to welcome back his latest big-race winner after Pic d’Orhy had given him a third success in the last four runnings of the Grade 2 Silviniaco Conti Chase at Kempton on Saturday. But the trainer left for a holiday last week after saddling a four-timer at Taunton on Monday which took him past the hundred mark for the season.
Nicholls first hit a century of winners in 1998/99 and has done so again every season since 2001/02, except for the curtailed campaign of 2019/20. Even then he was well on the way, with 96 winners on the board and sure to have reached the milestone when racing was shut down after the Cheltenham Festival because of the pandemic.
Nicholls’ highest total came in the very next season when he saddled 176 winners in 2020/21 with one in four of his runners being successful. This season, however, he is currently operating at a 30% strike rate which raises the possibility that he might surpass his total of two years ago.
Given where the stable’s biggest successes have come from in recent weeks, it was interesting to read what Nicholls had to say about his team in a stable tour back at the beginning of October. ‘Novice hurdlers we might be weak on but that will balance itself out as some will surprise you.’
Whether or not they were surprises, Grade 1 wins for novice hurdlers Hermes Allen in the Challow at Newbury and Tahmuras in the Tolworth at Sandown the following week have shown that Ditcheat is anything but weak in that particular division. Hermes Allen is now ante-post favourite for the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle while Tahmuras is the shortest-priced British contender for the Supreme. Both novices were admittedly unknown quantities at the start of the season, however.
Tahmuras had won a bumper at Wincanton on his second start in the spring, while Irish point winner Hermes Allen had yet to make his debut for the yard, though came with a £350,000 price tag. The pair are now unbeaten in three starts apiece over hurdles, with Tahmuras also having won a listed event at Haydock and Hermes Allen a Grade 2 at Cheltenham.
Other novice hurdlers to have shown plenty of ability are Henri The Second, winner of the Grade 2 Winter Novices’ Hurdle at Sandown in December, and Knowsley Road, who won his first two starts over hurdles at Chepstow before running a creditable third in Saturday’s Leamington Novices’ Hurdle at Warwick. Both of those are very much chasing types for the future.
Among other promising novices capable of winning more races over hurdles is Stay Away Fay, another expensive purchase from Irish points, who looked a staying type when making a successful debut at Newbury in November in a race which Bravemansgame and Stage Star had won for the stable in the previous two years. Hugos New Horse completed a hat-trick at Exeter on New Year’s Day and is open to more improvement over further than two miles, while Lallygag, a brother to very smart chaser Lalor, is a likeable type and made it three out of four over hurdles with an emphatic success at Taunton just before Christmas.
Others progressing well over hurdles are Irish Hill, the winner of handicaps at Taunton and Fakenham on his last couple of starts, and novice Timeforatune who won at Taunton last time and appeals as the type to be suited by large-field handicaps. Indeed, he’s one of several Betfair Hurdle entries in his stable, that also include fellow novice Rubaud and useful handicappers Hacker des Places and Iceo who have been runners-up at Ascot and Sandown respectively on their only starts this season.
Whatever Champion Hurdle entry Knappers Hill achieves during the rest of the season, he has already won the Silver Trophy and Elite Hurdle in the autumn, while handicapper Red Risk has belied long odds to prove himself better than ever back over hurdles of late, winning at Newbury before going down narrowly with a smart effort in the Lanzarote at Kempton on Saturday.
But it’s the chasers who are leading their stable’s assault on some of the biggest prizes this season and Bravemansgame confirmed himself Ditcheat's new stable star when providing Nicholls with a thirteenth success in the King George VI Chase. That was a top-class performance from a horse who’d looked an exciting prospect from early in his career. Adding to an earlier success in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby, Bravemansgame, a notably fine jumper of fences, has only been beaten once in seven chases and now heads straight for the Gold Cup.
Former King George winner Frodon was third this time after going with his usual enthusiasm having gained a nineteenth career success when carrying 12-0 to victory in the Badger Beer Handicap Chase at Wincanton in November. The stable’s third King George runner Hitman didn’t give his running (reportedly bled), but he still has youth on his side and he’s a high-class chaser on his day as he showed when easily winning a graduation chase at Haydock the time before. Another of Nicholls’ King George heroes, dual winner Clan des Obeaux, is 11 now and recovering from a tendon injury but reportedly being aimed towards a bid to win a third Bowl Chase at Aintree.
Over two miles, Greaneteen is another of the stable’s top chasers, proving at least as good as ever when winning the Haldon Gold Cup but proving no match for Edwardstone in the Tingle Creek Chase. Front-running Pic d’Orhy has quietly worked his way up to being among his stable’s best chasers this season, winning all three of his starts, and followed up his Peterborough Chase win with that emphatic success at Kempton on Saturday which entitles him to a crack at Grade 1 company sooner rather than later.
Nicholls might not have been too bullish about his novice hurdlers at the start of the season but he had plenty to look forward to among his novice chasers and there have been several good winners among them. McFabulous looked as bright a prospect as any of them when winning at Exeter and Newbury, though had excuses for his defeat in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase when Thyme Hill, whom he’d beaten the time before, turned the tables on him; as well as being found out by the greater test of stamina he also finished lame.
Gelino Bello fell in the Kauto Star when yet to be asked for his effort but had won his earlier novices at Wetherby and Exeter and the National Hunt Novices’ Chase looks his most suitable Festival target provided he remains over fences (has been given a Stayers’ Hurdle entry). Stage Star was beaten at short odds on his second start over fences but has accomplished simpler tasks at Warwick and Plumpton either side of that in good style and remains with potential. Complete Unknown already looks a better chaser than he was a hurdler and while he couldn’t follow up his debut success over fences at Ffos Las when going down to Galia des Liteaux at Warwick on Saturday, the winner looks a smart mare.
Monmiral hasn’t got his head in front over fences yet but it should be only a matter of time before he’s found a winning opportunity. He bumped into Jonbon on his chasing debut at Warwick and then found only exciting prospect The Real Whacker too good when favourite for the Dipper Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day.
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