He answers the big Aintree questions and Graham Cunningham settles on a 25/1 fancy for the Randox Grand National.
Aintree showpiece still a case of Poetry in motion
‘The National isn’t what it used to be.’
You’ll hear variations on this popular theme any number of times this week and it’s a view that has some merit.
Ten years have passed since the loss of Gold Cup hero Synchronised helped persuade Aintree it was time to swap their fearsome old fences for far more forgiving replacements.
Eight subsequent renewals have given us enough data to suggest the National is clearly a safer race now, with fewer fallers and fatalities than any similar period in the modern era.
And, as the National evolves, so does the race to spot useful new trends.
Some detect a shift towards youth because the last six editions have gone to horses aged eight or nine, while the growing Irish influence reached a humiliating peak last year when only one of the first eleven was trained in Britain.
But the day the National loses its wild unpredictability will be the day its mass appeal begins to wane. And, if anything, the new National is a trickier puzzle than the old one.
Remember Auroras Encore winning at 66-1 having been beaten a combined 123 lengths on his three completed starts in 2013? Or Rule The World charging home at 33s in 2016 having been beaten on all his thirteen previous runs over fences?
Unconsidered 100-1 shot Balko Des Flos gave Minella Times a real scare in last year’s race but there’s still little in a punter’s life to compare with snagging the National winner – so let’s hope the answer can be found again within the following questions.
IS THE NATIONAL COMING HOME?
It’s hardly thirty years of hurt but there’s a seven-year itch that needs scratching given that Many Clouds in 2015 was the last Aintree hero to be trained in England.
Yes, there was a famous Scottish winner in the interim thanks to One For Arthur in 2017 and a blank year in 2020 but you get the message. And the Irish grip in recent years has been more like a chokehold.
Some patriotic citizens seem psyched for another home win but consider this. The visitors saddled five of the first six for Tiger Roll’s first win in 2018 and four of the first five for his second in 2019. And then, with the talisman absent due to a Gigginstown hissy fit last year, they still laughed at the locals with ten of the first eleven.
That sort of grip is hard to loosen by relatively minor tinkering with ratings. Ireland will supply half the field for this year’s National including a host of leading fancies. And, after digesting all that, the question for those who think it’s coming home is simple: Still psyched?
CAN AINTREE REVIVE THE MINELLA LOVE AFFAIR?
Dear Minella Times,
It’s not you, it’s me. Correction, it’s you. I know you were clinical from start to finish under Saint Rachael last year but what have you done for me lately?
It’s not that most National winners struggle to win again. Nor is it that you will be racing from a 15lb higher mark this time, though that’s far from ideal. No, it’s what you’ve shown (or haven’t shown) in two runs since that glorious day twelve months ago.
I know you were in deep against Allaho and co in the John Durkan but seeing you turn a somersault when tailed off three out was alarming. And your laboured jumping before being pulled up at Leopardstown over Christmas wasn’t the Minella I once knew.
The bottom line, MT, is that you need to be better than ever to emulate Tiger Roll from a mark of 161. Shame on me for seeking out a new flame. But that’s what I intend to do.
WILL IT BE A CASE OF THIRD TIME’S THE CHARM FOR ANY SECOND?
Kyboshed by a Covid abandonment in 2020 and thwarted by serious interference when third in 2021, Ted Walsh’s gelding has been trained for this all year and showed he’s in good heart when nailing Escaria Ten in the final stride of the Bobbyjo at Fairyhouse.
But last year’s National holds the key to his chance. Some will feel Any Second Now was the moral winner - beaten a shade over eight lengths having lost that much and more when severely hampered when Double Shuffle fell at the twelfth – but I’m not so sure.
Any Second Now had to put everything he had into recovering so much lost ground and went to a gruelling place, jumping warily for much of the second circuit, as a result. He’ll need to be a hard nut to want to go there again. Add in the fact that he returns from a 7lb higher mark against a slew of dangerous rivals and the single figure prices look resistible.
HOW DOES THIS YEAR SHAPE UP FOR WELL HANDICAPPED HORSES?
Ratings are only one piece of the Aintree puzzle but horses who improve once the weights are out have a strong record, with Neptune Collonges, Tiger Roll and Minella Times winning from good marks and Sunnyhillboy, The Last Samuri and Any Second Now going close.
The list of handicap blots who failed to shine is also notable – Cloth Cap the latest example last year – and BHA assessor Martin Greenwood reports that those would are due to drop in the ratings exceeds the number who are ahead of the game this year.
“The handful that are well in include Any Second Now and Escaria Ten, who went up 3lb and 1lb for their runs in the Bobbyjo,” he says. “Fiddlerontheroof is 2lb well in after a good run at Ascot with Two For Gold 5lb well in for his excellent G1 second on the same card, while Eclair Surf and Fortescue are 4lb well in having crept in at the foot of the weights.”
WHO ARE THE ACES IN GORDON’S PACK?
The debate over whether it’s healthy for one trainer to have almost a fifth of the entire National field is a conversation for another day but Elliott has three Nationals to his credit and will fancy his chances of a fourth given the strength of this year’s Aintree team.
Escaria Ten clearly has much to recommend him as a lightly-raced stayer who lines up after an eye-catching second in the Bobbyjo, while Delta Work is a multiple G1 winner who follows a familiar Elliott route to Aintree having foiled Tiger Roll’s fairytale farewell in the cross country at Cheltenham.
But the depth in Elliott’s challenge shouldn’t be underestimated. Run Wild Fred probably ran into a good one when left behind by Stattler in the NH Chase at the Festival, while Mount Ida has an alarming tendency to jump right but has already offset that trait in one major handicap.
HOW ABOUT OTHERS WHO CAME UP SHORT LAST YEAR?
It’s tough to know what to make of Burrows Saint, who traded at 2.2 when travelling powerfully into the straight last year only to tire noticeably into fourth. He’s an Irish National winner, so it’s hard to think lack of stamina was the sole reason, but he checked out tamely in the Bobbyjo and that hardly counts as an ideal prep.
The venerable Blaklion and Discorama finished sixth and seventh respectively last year but they were beaten thirty odd and forty odd wickets apiece.
Cloth Cap hasn’t gone on since being pulled up three from home with a breathing issue as 11-2 favourite twelve months ago, while Anibale Fly pulled up last year but fared much better when fourth and fifth to Tiger Roll in 2018 and 2019.
WHAT ABOUT THE REST OF THE IRISH CHALLENGE?
It contains at least one very appealing candidate and several other legitimate contenders. JP McManus has added Enjoy D’allen to a team that already includes Minella Times and Any Second Now and last year’s Irish National third has proven stamina and a progressive profile over fences.
However, LONGHOUSE POET is the horse who keeps catching the eye every time I come back to this year’s National for the simple reason that he ticks so many important boxes.
- Age – at eight he’s approaching his prime and open to more improvement after just six runs over fences.
- Trainer – The canny Martin Brassil has had just three National runners. Numbersixvalverde won in 2006 before finishing an honourable sixth the following year, while Double Seven finished third when sent off joint favourite in 2014.
- Jumping – Aintree presents a new challenge but Longhouse Poet has developed a sound technique which has already withstood the heat of a high-class handicap.
- Form – That handicap was the Thyestes Chase. Brassil used the Gowran race as part of Numbersixvalverde’s route to Aintree and Longhouse Poet won it in tenacious style in January, travelling powerfully and jumping accurately under the up-and-coming Darragh O’Keeffe to see off a smart field who have franked his performance numerous times since.
- Price – It’s easy to make a case for those at the top of the National market but much harder to argue that they are overpriced at 8-1 or 9-1. But Longhouse Poet is almost twice their price when his claims look every bit as strong. Watch the video of his Thyestes win. It’s quite persuasive.
HOW DO YOU FOLLOW THE FIRST FEMALE RIDER TO WIN THE NATIONAL?
A first female horse to win the race since Nickel Coin in 1951 would be a good tale. And a bold-jumping grey always goes down well. But how about a bold-jumping grey who has returned to her day job better than ever after taking time out to become a mother?
Victory for Snow Leopardess would be pure Box Office and Charlie Longsdon’s mare has much more than romance going for her after winning three from three including a thrilling success over the National fences in the Becher Chase.
It’s hard to think of a horse more likely to catch the eye in running but Snow Leopardess has shown her hand to the handicapper with those three wins – and the realist/killjoy in me suspects she won’t be the best handicapped horse on show once things get serious.
BEST OF THE BRITS, THEN?
The Tizzards resisted a tempting engagement at Cheltenham with Fiddlerontheroof and the Stowaway gelding has much more in his favour than most judged on two fine efforts at Newbury and Ascot.
Fortescue was the horse who wore down Fiddlerontheroof at Ascot and he’s another with fair claims, while Two For Gold is in the form of his life and Kildisart is a dark horse having been given a gentle re-introduction after a long absence at Newbury.
But we’ve been here before. It’s hard to forget the image of the home team being left in a remote race of their own in the final mile of last year’s National and time will tell whether the plucky Brits can turn things around twelve months on.
HOW IMPORTANT IS A GOOD POSITION IN THE MODERN NATIONAL?
Important but not crucial is probably the most sensible answer. It’s often said that ‘you need to be handy’ nowadays but One For Arthur and Tiger Roll both crept into contention from off the pace and the ability to travel comfortably and jump economically remains every bit as important as track position on the first circuit.
For what it’s worth, this year’s race promises to be truly-run, as usual. It’s hard to know if we will see another Jett, who bounded well clear from halfway last year, but Run Wild Fred, Coko Beach, Good Boy Bobby and Dingo Dollar are among those who tend to get on with things and the bold-jumping Éclair Surf will certainly fire up the heat map if he adopts his usual pressing style.
FINAL VERDICT FOR THE 2022 NATIONAL?
Deploying the scattergun is the chosen method for many a National pundit but it’s hard to sound the trumpets afterwards when you’ve found the winner and made about 5-2 for your money.
And, while any number of teams will head to Aintree with high hopes again, I’m hoping it’s like watching Brassil on April 9th. The Kildare handler lets his horses do the talking and they tend to speak eloquently when he gets a good one.
From beating Monkfish on his Punchestown bumper debut to mixing it with Ireland’s elite novices over hurdles then turning away Run Wild Fred in his beginners’ chase, Longhouse Poet found his voice early and added an impressive new verse by landing a strong Thyestes.
It seems safe to forgive a subsequent defeat in a steadily-run G2 hurdle and focus instead on the way that Longhouse Poet travels, jumps and battles over fences. It’s easy to see him shortening up further from the current 16-1 on offer come National day. And it’s not hard to see him giving those who back him a tremendous each way run for their money.
1 Longhouse Poet
2 Escaria Ten
3 Fortescue
4 Eclair Surf
5 Enjoy D'Allen