Racing Tips Today: Best Value Bets for ITV Racing Saturday September 20
By Matt Brocklebank
Horse Racing
Sat September 21, 2024 · 2M ago
It's Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup day north of the border on Saturday and Matt Brocklebank picks out the value there and at Newbury.
- Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Value Bet tips are initially available to logged-in readers through Sporting Life Plus, before the full column appears on the main Sporting Life website and App 15 minutes later.
- Following all Matt's selections to recommended odds/stakes since the start of 2024 would have produced 141.70pts in profit (249pts staked, ROI of 61.50%).
Value Bet tips: Saturday September 14
1pt win Significantly in 1.30 Newbury at 20/1 (General)
1pt win Flash Bardot in 2.05 Newbury at 20/1 (General)
1pt win Two Tribes in 2.25 Ayr at 16/1 (William Hill)
1pt e.w. Aramis Grey in 3.35 Ayr at 40/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
Making hay while the sun shines
A typically fascinating blend of profiles come to together to contest Saturday’s Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup Handicap and underfoot conditions – set to dry out amidst warm and occasionally sunny weather right into the weekend – are going to play a key role.
The penalised Portland winner American Affair has been rapidly progressive this summer and looks to have exceptional claims again given he’s quite versatile trip-wise, although the 5lb extra he's forced to carry is actually 3lb more than he’s officially been raised for last Saturday’s last-gasp Doncaster win, so Jim Goldie’s horse is plenty short enough for me.
Richard Fahey's Ramazan has been running well pretty much all season and should do so again back here, while Rohaan looked right on the verge of an 11th career success when third from off a slow pace at Ascot last time and I’ve nothing against him either, other than that his price around 10/1 looks no more than fair.
The Gosden-trained Mostabshir had Group 1 pretensions at one stage and is completely unexposed as a sprinter on the back of his Stewards' Cup fourth, when admittedly quite well placed towards the pace on the stands' side as it turned out.
If there's one who could blow the race apart then it might well be him, but purely from a value perspective I’m naturally looking among the outsiders and ARAMIS GREY appears over-priced.
Probably better known as an all-weather horse, her turf record of two wins, three seconds and two thirds from just 13 attempts isn’t to be sniffed at either, and while she’s not had her head in front since last February, the grey hasn’t had many opportunities in races of this nature.
The stiff track and hurly-burly of an Ayr Gold Cup might just suit her down to the ground as she clearly needs to get there late in the day and - in theory at least - will have a strong pace to chase up the middle of the track from stall 13 as she's housed near enough to pace enforcers Sergeant Wilko (9), Jordan Electrics (17) and Lethal Levi (20).
There are others even closer to her like Glenfinnan (11) and Ramazan (14), who like to race prominently too so a central berth looks fine and Rae Guest’s mare – despite being aged seven – arrives at the very top of her game after a string of solid efforts.
Her close second to Buccabay at Haydock in June was right up there but last month’s neck third behind Elmonjed was arguably a new career best and she was unlucky not to win in truth having been interfered with at the start and then denied a clear run late on.
The winner went on to land the Constantine Handicap at the Ebor Festival, beating Strike Red, Commanche Falls, Dare To Hope and Jehangeer among others in opposition here, so a subsequent 1lb rise for Aramis Grey looks neither here nor there and another massive run would come as no surprise.
She probably wouldn’t be lining up in a more seasonally appropriate year on heavy ground, but it makes sense to have another crack with her and make hay while the sun shines – I hope connections are duly rewarded.
Spencer to strike in Silver Cup
TWO TRIBES has form which ties in with a couple of horses already mentioned running in the Gold Cup and Richard Spencer’s charge looks the one to be on in the Virgin Bet Ayr Silver Cup Handicap.
Totally ill-at-ease in the falsely-run, soft-ground Ascot race in which Rohaan caught the eye earlier this month, he was previously a decent fourth to Elmonjed in the Constantine and on that York form he’s got a major chance running off the same mark here.
He's only ever won a nursery but Spencer - already among the winners here this week - has held him in high regard from the outset (was due to run in the Windsor Castle last summer but had to be withdrawn at the start) and, encouragingly, he carried his form deep into last year when placed at Chelmsford and also at this corresponding meeting 12 months ago.
The Newmarket second in May when splitting James's Delight (now rated 110) and Shagraan (95) showed he’d trained on and although things haven’t quite panned out his way in a handful of starts since, he’s definitely capable of winning races off his current mark of 90.
All ground comes alike and I'm happy with the draw in stall 3 as there’s plenty of early speed among those drawn low towards the far side rail in the consolation race.
Ayr's opening Livescore Bet Daily Extra Places Handicap looks devilishly difficult and the horse that interests me most is Padishakh.
He's creeping down the weights having joined David O’Meara from Jean-Claude Rouget – via one run for Roger Varian – and the Balmoral Handicap entry sets one or two alarm bells ringing, but his form in France suggests he’ll be much more effective when the ground turns and he’s still just about one to watch for the time being.
Significantly over-priced?
The ground will be far more testing down at Newbury, having changed to soft after heavy downpours on Friday afternoon, and the wide-open Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes kicks things off.
Annaf gave SIGNIFICANTLY 12lb and a (narrow) beating in the Portland this time last year but I’m not sure there’ll be too much between them again off level weights this weekend and the latter merits a small interest at long odds.
After Doncaster, Significantly went and won the Ayr Gold Cup before finishing second to recent Betfair Sprint Cup hero Montassib in a York handicap, so it wasn't a flash in the pan by any means and while this year’s form suggests he's probably found his level, there are reasons to be a bit more hopeful here.
Firstly, he loves some ease underfoot (arguably more so than Annaf) but, more importantly, the race should be run to suit as he likes to chase a strong gallop and the likes of Democracy Dilemma, Desperate Herp and Adaay In Devon all vying for the lead could help tee things up nicely.
Significantly's two early-season efforts this year are best written off as trainer Julie Camacho’s yard was badly out of sorts at the time (better signs of late, not least a Yarmouth winner on Thursday) and his comeback run at York smacked of a horse in need of an outing as he was worked up beforehand and then raced too keenly out the back in a race dominated by the two horses who ended up finishing first and second.
Significantly looks a bit of a wild price all things considered, and I’ll take the quirky individual to spring a shock.
Nothing flash about Bardot bet
I'll give the Group 2 Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes a swerve but the other one to be on down south is filly FLASH BARDOT for Jack Channon and David Probert in the Dubai Duty Free Autumn Cup Handicap.
She won back-to-back handicaps in bad ground around this time last year, including one over a mile and a half at this track, and added to her tally on seasonal debut at Doncaster (soft) back in April.
She’s been below that level in four runs since and put in a particularly moderate display on heavy going at Hamilton last month but is back down the weights as a result and runs off a mark only a couple of pounds higher than for her spring success on Town Moor.
Anything like her best form would bring her well into the equation here as market leader Waxing Gibbous has gone up 8lb in total for her two latest defeats and looks one to be against this time.
Published at 1600 BST on 20/09/24
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