Today's tips: Racing preview and best bets
By David Massey
09:44 · SAT October 19, 2024
Our star duo of Rory Delargy and David Massey look ahead to Saturday's racing, with four selections advised on Champions Day.
Racing betting tips: Saturday October 19
0.5pts e.w Flora Of Bermuda in the 1.55 Ascot at 20/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4 min 14/1)
0.5pts e.w Checkandchallenge in the 3.15 Ascot at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3, min 50/1)
0.5pts e.w Mirsky in the 4.35 Ascot at 33/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral 1/5 1,2,3,4,5, min 28/1)
0.5pts e.w Lattam in the 4.35 Ascot at 20/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5, min 14/1)
"At 50/1 there are a lot of positives" | British Champions Day tips!
1:20 Ascot
We’re singing from the same hymn sheet here, as whilst neither of us can oppose Kyprios on form this season, this is a fixture that frequently throws up shocks that were hard to see coming.
Neither of us are keen on Trawlerman for varying reasons (this will be the slowest ground he’ll have faced in his career, plenty of pace on up front and he won’t get a lot of peace) but Al Nayyir makes plenty of each-way appeal around the 7/1 mark in a race lacking any great depth outside of the front four in the betting.
Whilst he might be a little flattered by his margin of victory in the Rose Bowl at Newmarket last time, that run confirmed he’s very much at home on soft ground, and with more rain due at Ascot this morning, this is going to be a real stamina test, which should suit.
In truth, there are several other efforts on his card that make Al Nayyir look a solid option here, notably his short-head second to Vauban in the Lonsdale Cup at York on debut for Tom Clover, and despite being with five different trainers since last spring, he has kept his form really well, with his only disappointment coming on his sole outing for Julien Carayon at Longchamp in May.
He had three months off after that run and arrives fresher than most for this test, which can be crucial as winter approaches and horses on the go through the summer can train off quickly.
1:55 Ascot
It would be easy to get wrapped up in the draw, which hasn’t been easy to predict on the straight track this season, but finding where the pace comes from can often lead you to where you ought to be and on that score, Art Power, who won this from stall 1 last year (when a low draw was thought to be a negative) could be the pace angle from stall 12, and we feel middle-to-high might have the advantage. That’s a worry for Montassib, drawn in stall 6, who probably only has the 7f/miler Audience to take him into the contest, and whether Audience has the speed to lead these has to be open to question.
Five of the last 11 winners of this contest had been beaten in the Sprint Cup at Haydock and that stat stands out as significant. Both Art Power and Kinross won this after racing on ‘Arc’ weekend, but the six weeks since Haydock is a nice break between races, while the stiffer track at Ascot can often see Sprint Cup form turned on its head. With that, we’ve two against the field, Rory fielding with Kind Of Blue and myself with Flora Of Bermuda, who caught the eye in a big way that day.
Kind Of Blue ran a cracker that day, going down by a head to Montassib, and that run merely maintained the progression he’s shown this season. The question is whether he’ll be able to show his form under slower conditions today, but sire Blue Point has a better strike rate on ground softer than good than quicker going, so there’s a reasonable chance he’ll be even better with some dig in the ground.
FLORA OF BERMUDA caught the eye travelling up strongly in the Sprint Cup, but got herself trapped behind Givemethebeatboys as that one weakened out of it, and by the time she was out in the clear the race was over. All the same, she ran on strongly under minimal pressure to finish a 3¾l fifth and gave the impression she’d have been a lot closer with a clear run. She goes well with plenty of cut, 1-1 on heavy ground according to Timeform descriptors, and she’ll not care how much rain falls this morning.
3:15 Ascot
Charyn is another one who has been on the go all season with only a short break, and that’s reason enough to desert him in the QEII, for all he’s performed with credit ever since landing the Doncaster Mile on the opening day of the turf season. I prefer Tamfana of those prominent in the betting, but with a distinct sense of déjà vu, I’m looking elsewhere for a betting opportunity.
So, it’s deja vu all over again for the Pointers here, with CHECKANDCHALLENGE making some appeal, much as he did when we tipped him up for this last year, and he squeaked fourth for us.
In fact, he’s been fourth in this for the last two years, and he seems to come good around this time of the year every year. He’s the sort to have you hitting your head against the wall somewhat, but more often than not he faces a very stiff task, as is the case again today. Gelded in the summer, the operation seems to have done the trick, Checkandchallenge coming back to something like his best form in the Strensall Stakes at York and last time out, finding only Skellett too good at Sandown.
The booking of Christophe Soumillon is another big plus point. Soumi has only ridden Checkandchallenge once before, and on that occasion the pair proved too strong for Facteur Cheval in the Prix Daphnis at Deauville, a run that looks better in hindsight, with the runner-up a Group 1 winner since and a good second in this race last term.
If we’re being realistic, he’s going to have to improve a chunk to win this, and probably rely on others to run below par, but on the likely quagmire this afternoon, stranger things have happened on this day. As such, playing him each-way only makes limited appeal but there’s nothing stopping you playing him place-only on this World Pool Day, or have him as part of exotics (the ever-popular Swinger makes most appeal). Having said that, the 66s around this morning has lured us in...
4:35 Ascot
MIRSKY almost did us a massive favour when second in the Clipper Logistics Handicap at York earlier in the season, looking for all the world like he was going to go past the front-running Thunder Run at the furlong pole but finding that rival in no mood to be passed on the day. The pair are once again drawn close to one another and Mirsky has a 3lb swing in the weights here, so on that alone is of interest, but he also ran better than a fifth here last time out would suggest, doing best of those drawn very high. Anything north of 20-1 makes him a bet.
Those on the stands side ought to do best, given where the pace of the pace is likely to come from, and so the other to make some appeal is LATTAM, who was runner-up in the Lincoln on seasonal debut this year and it’s also worth remembering he won the Irish version on his seasonal debut in 2023 (when with William Haggas), so the absence since March isn’t a concern, and straight-mile big-field handicaps on soft/heavy ground come as meat and drink to him. Stall 20 arguably means he could be best berthed of all.
Preview posted at 0940 BST 19/10/24
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