Live Racing Blog | Latest news, tips and chat from the Cazoo Derby Festival
Adam Kirby won his first Classic and Charlie Appleby his second as Adayar ran out a convincing winner of the Cazoo Derby at Epsom. Recap the action.
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1723: There's one more from Epsom and all of the evening racing to look forward to but I'm going to leave the blog here and join the team in tidying up the reaction to today's Cazoo Derby.
It was a clearcut success for Adayar and in a time that reads well but there's no doubt that a few of the principals underperformed.
That won't worry connections a jot but it's entirely relevant as the dust settles over the next 24/48 hours and minds start to shift over future targets and, no doubt, how strong the three-year-old colts are at Ballydoyle this season.
Perhaps something will come to light with Bolshoi Ballet, he did go out quite quickly and at least one pundit has suggested he didn't fail for stamina today.
Adayar looked smart though and that's all that matters as far as the Cazoo Derby is concerned and he is very much the one to beat in the St Leger.
Could he be a dual Classic winner by the end of the season?
1714: Dave Nevison believes an upset is not an impossibility but Group One Power remains very strong in the market at 11/8.
Just a handful left to go forwards.
Soto Sizzler reared as the gates opened and lost two or three lengths. That was unlucky. Autumn War had backed out just beforehand and they were waiting for a while.
Market rival Group One Power leads under Silvestre de Sousa and it's an uncontested lead. Red Force One and The Trader are content to track the pace without putting any pressure on it. They're at Tattenham Corner, it's time to get racing.
Group One Power still leads but Soto Sizzler emerges in second on his inside. He's got up against the rail. Out wide Midnights Legacy finishes even more strongly and Alan King's charge wins under William Buick.
As his name suggests, that's another winner for the remarkable, late stallion Midnight Legend.
Apparently connections have hopes that Midnights Legacy might replace his father in the paddocks. That success gives him a better chance.
He wasn't involved in the finish but Australis, who has shown his best on the all-weather, shaped quite promisingly in behind. That bodes quite well for his season.
That race was won in 2:38 and change whereas the Derby, over the same course and distance, was won in a time of 2:36:85.
1706: The runners are on their way to the 12 furlong start for the handicap but the Derby is still being discussed and Dixon's early impression is that Adayar 'would be hard to beat' in the St Leger.
Group One Power could be a well handicapped horse and he's priced accordingly.
Soto Sizzler was poor last time but he's got two wins and a second to his name at the track and David Menuisier and Oisin Murphy teamed up successfully at the track yesterday and Murphy has won on him before.
The second came behind Group One Power in the Great Metropolitan Handicap over C&D but he's better off at the weights accordingly.
Dixon and Luck both give Midnights Legacy a chance if you're looking for one at longer odds to take on the front two.
1655: There are still two races to come from the Cazoo Derby Festival and I'll certainly be here for the next of them which is under 20 minutes away.
Group One Power is a warm favourite but faces a live threat in course specialist Soto Sizzler.
It's 8/1 bar the pair.
Appleby has been speaking to Racing TV. There wasn't an awful lot to add to what he said to ITV with the trainer admitting that he suggested Adayar be saved for the Leger rather than the Derby only for Sheikh Mohammed to tell him to take his chance.
Adayar was sired by Frankel and it's a notable first success in the Epsom Classic for the stallion.
1643: I've just caught Angus McNae saying 'it was a really good time' but I missed what the winning time was.
That's something for another day for most I would think.
Presumably Bolshoi Ballet didn't stay as everything appeared to be going to plan for Ryan Moore but he just didn't pick up.
The view seems to be that Hurricane Lane didn't handle the track.
That's a huge run from the second but his presence will, for the time being, be used to hold the form down and it's not hard to subscribe to that view at present.
Bolshoi Ballet hit 2.04 and John Leeper 3.1 on the Betfair Exchange.
The winner is 8/1 for the Arc and 7/2 for the St Leger with Betfair Sportsbook.
A few words from Charlie Appleby: "Adam knows this horse better than most, he broke him in. It's just great for us. A huge team effort.
"It's all about His Highness and Godolphin and the whole team behind it all.
"We'll let the dust settle but we always thought it (the St Leger) was going to be his target.
"If I'd had my way he might have run in the Vase but we'll give that a swerve now!"
1632: Loading is underway for the 2021 Cazoo Derby.
John Leeper is one of the last to load.
THEY'RE OFF.
Gear Up and Youth Spirit prominent, John Leeper settled in last. Mac Swiney midfield. Bolshoi Ballet is prominent and wide in third or fourth. Hurricane Lane is just behind him. Then Third Realm and Mac Swiney. Approaching the final five.
Dettori begins to move. It's still Gear Up but Adayar goes on.
Oh my, a huge result for Adam Kirby. He wins by four or five from Mojo Star with Hurricane Lane third.
The winner was returned at 16/1.
He lost the ride on John Leeper earlier this week but he may feel a little bit better about that now!
He got a great split up the inside on the fresh ground and absolutely everything went right; there was late money for him and it proved to be spot on. He's comfortably reversed Lingfield form with Third Realm who may have made late gains into fourth or fifth - I'll try and confirm that - where he was in company with Mac Swiney.
An emotional Kirby tells Persad: "It's ups and downs, that's racing. When it comes to Charlie Appleby he's a top man and I can't thank him enough; he's a great trainer. Thanks very much for putting me on this lad."
1628: Two minutes to post time but the runners still making their way to the stalls, the jockeys understandably taking their time with an awful lot at stake.
John Leeper will be one of the last arrive with Dettori clearly having had to work to keep a lid on him. He's got a little warm down the neck and he's been met near the gates by, presumably, a member of Ed Dunlop's team who will lead him behind.
Dixon believes the first part of the race will be crucial to his chance.
There is more late money for One Ruler who is into 8/1. There's support for stablemate Adayar too. All three Godolphin runners have been backed. Intriguing.
1623: John Leeper threw his head around a little going out on to the track and was a bit keen but Dettori soon had him under control and the last I saw of him, he appeared to be going to post happily enough.
He would be a very popular winner but I think this is all about the Irish challenge with Bolshoi Ballet and Mac Swiney holding very obvious chances while Southern Lights looks capable of hitting the (extra) places at a big price.
1618: There was a springer in the market for the Cazoo Oaks but there's no sign of one emerging in the Derby market just yet and Bolshoi Ballet remains firm at11/8.
Support continues to come for Hurricane Lane at 5/1.
Aidan O'Brien is speaking to Matt Chapman who has asked him whether he likes ballet........
This is some of what he had to say about Bolshoi Ballet:
"Very happy with him, delighted with the two runs this year and everything has been well with him since. He's straightforward. He's never run any further than a mile and a quarter and you're never sure."
Hislop declares herself, like Dixon, to be a fan of Third Realm with both believing he'll be suited by the track.
The Lingfield Trial winner is proving to be a fairly popular each-way selection.
1608: "He looks great," Dixon says of Bolshoi Ballet as Aidan O'Brien saddles his colt in the centre of the pre-parade ring.
There are doubts about One Ruler's stamina but not for Hurricane Lane who is Luck's pick of the paddock.
He's been described as 'super relaxed and professional'.
Mac Swiney looks 'hard fit' and 'great'. He's just come into the paddock.
"Bolshoi Ballet looks great but there are others that impress me more physically," says Luck.
Dixon says he looks fine and he's struggling to pick up any paddock negatives.
That's just how you'd want it.
Apparently those connected to Southern Lights think he'll run well - remember those extra place offers if you like him. He's 'a big strong individual' they report.
Hurricane Lane and Mac Swiney standout for Luck who calls John Leeper 'a mighty looking horse, a beast of a horse' and Dixon agrees and goes on to describe him as 'a real athlete'.
But is he ready for this test?
Just 15 minutes to post time.
1606: Apparently the Dash wasn't the plan for Mokaatil with the rain leading to a late switch from Goodwood.
Trainer Ian Williams went on to say: "I thought there would be some younger better handicapped horses. A good performance by the horse but a great performance by the jockey.
"We've got two more to run today.
"Autumn War is in good form but I'm not sure how he'll handle the track and Ejtilaab is dropping back a furlong and a half which is a bold move but the ground might help him and hopefully he'll run well."
1555: William Buick is on board Hurricane Lane in the Cazoo Derby and has spoken to ITV Racing:
"He's progressed with every single start, he's got better and better. I think the ground will be similar to what it was at York, possibly a little more testing today. I think he'll handle it at least as good as most, if not better.
"Masar (won the Derby under Buick) was sharp and very good over a mile but this fellow is possibly a little bit more of a galloper. I think he'll stay the trip."
An interview with Michael Tabor is being shown now....there's some chat about Galileo and history. I don't suppose he'll say 'lump on Bolshoi Ballet' but someone has as the favourite is around 5/4 now. Talk of him going off at 2/1 which was bandied around this morning is wide of the mark.
"He'll be hard to beat I hope," Tabor says.
"The fact that we are running one is unusual and that must tell a story. I know we're favourite and that doesn't make us win but it obviously gives us a good chance.
"He's the best of our bunch."
1543: Nick Luck thought Only Spoofing was just about the pick of the paddock.
He has a 'massive sprinter's backside' apparently and Dixon agrees that he looked well but puts up Mokaatil at a price.
The field are behind the gates. Loading is only just underway with the clock ticking past post time but hopefully this experienced field will all go in fairly quickly.
Almost set for 'the fastest five furlongs in the country'. Luck has just said 'in the world'. Is that right?
Early pace down the centre with Recon Mission and Son And Sannie.
Victory goes the way of Mokaatil.
Success for Ian Williams and David Egan and Martin Dixon.
Only Spoofing, Stone of Destiny, Mondammej, Lord Riddiford and Recon Mission followed the 25/1 winner home.
Lord Riddiford got a bump from Ornate apparently and the Racing TV consensus was that he was a little unlucky and ran a blinder.
Egan, who was riding his first winner at Epsom, tells Persad: "It was as quick as I've ever been on a racehorse that's for sure!
"The key was to get him out of the gates and get a good position. He took me into the race nicely."
1533: Silvestre de Sousa now rides Stone of Destiny with Sunday Sovereign a non-runner.
Caspian Prince, winner in 2016 and 2017 is also on the sidelines but Ornate, who won the last renewal of this race in 2019, lines up again.
Andrew Balding says of Stone Of Destiny: "Luckily he's got a high draw which is a help but he's not the quickest of starters so he'll need all the luck he gets when the splits come."
Paul Midgley saddled the winner in 2015 and 2018 and he's represented by Son And Sannie who is among the outsiders.
He's only had half a dozen starts for the yard since switching from Ireland though so perhaps there's still time for connections to try and find the key to him and it wouldn't be the biggest surprise to see him run a big race for all that he'd have to improve on his recent efforts.
It's a little harder to weigh up with the non-runners but there seems to have been a decent level of support for second favourite Mondammej who has been as high as 16/1.
His jockey Cam Hardie has spoken to ITV: "I think the only worry really the last day was the ground. He's a horse with a lot of ability and we've always thought a lot of him.
"It's all cylinders go really on this stands' side rail. If he can back up a few of his runs like the York handicap where he was a little bit unlucky, he should have a great chance. Fingers crossed things can go our way."
1523: There is the World Pool "Dash" Handicap to go before we get to the Derby and what a devilishly tricky puzzle it promises to be as ever.
Sunday Sovereign was a leading contender but has joined the absentees leaving Stone Of Destiny and Mondammej at the top of the betting.
Marquand has just been speaking to Racing TV and there was a quick line at the end about Only Spoofing.
Marquand said that yesterday he was delighted with the draw but after the runner's came over to the stands' side yesterday and 'trashed the ground' he's less convinced; he's yet to speak to the trainer.
Richard Hannon on Oh This Is Us: "He deserves a Group race like this, he hadn't won one before today, he's an absolute star. We weren't sure about the ground. He's eight and he's run some fantastic races, he's just a star in every way. The more trouble he gets in, the more it suits him."
1511: Almost set, couple more to load for the Cazoo Diomed Stakes.
Marie's Diamond and Century Dream are the first two. Bell Rock, Oh This Is Us and Escobar just behind. Turning into the straight. Duke Of Hazzard goes for a brave run up the inside. There's no room there.
PHOTO. Century Dream and Oh This Is Us. It's the race regulars.
Bell Rock third, fourth Duke Of Hazzard who you would have to think was very unlucky as he picked up well when switched off the rail into the open.
First place.....number six Oh This Is Us.
Eight years of age and as good as ever, he has been ignored in the market and returned at 18/1.
Tom Marquand the man in the saddle, as he was when Oh This Is Us won at Ascot on his penultimate start, and he's spoken to Rishi Persad:
"What a champion. I think that's my seventh time winning on him. He sticks his neck right out, I didn't know for sure but I thought I'd just got up."
1504: Bell Rock has joined Century Dream at the top of the market and Hislop looks slightly surprised that Oisin Murphy didn't mention him in her recent interview with the jockey after the preceding race.
Matt Chapman is talking to a disappointed William Haggas who has taken Mohaafeth out of the Cazoo Derby.
"I don't really want to run in a race I don't think I can win. I'm sure it's right. This is a young horse with a lot of potential."
He is out because of the ground which Haggas described as 'dead not soft' and he doesn't believe his exciting prospect is capable of showing his best under such conditions.
A far more upbeat trainer is Ed Crisford who is looking forward to Century Dream:
"He seems in great form, he probably just needed the run in the Lockinge. Looking forward to it. The softer the better for him."
1454: The runners in the pre-parade ring are all nice and relaxed with nothing getting too warm at present.
Dixon quite likes Duke of Hazzard who is having his second start since a wind operation. The blinkers and tongue tie, absent on his reappearance, are back on while the man in the saddle is a certain Mr Dettori.
His return came in an Ascot race won by Oh This Is Us who is out with the rags at 16/1. He's been a grand servant to the Hannon team and went close in this race in 2017 and 2019. He's no back number.
Matt Chapman is talking to Paul Cole and kicks off with a question about Cole's Derby winner Generous before moving on to Duke Of Hazzard:
"He never gives me the impression he needs it (headgear) so first time out was a good time to experiment.
"I think he does need it. Ground possibly a little on the soft side but he's been working really well at home."
1445: More Group Three action up next with the Cazoo Diomed Stakes where your 9/4 favourite was beaten 20 lengths last time.
Of course, it's not as simple as that with Century Dream making his reappearance in the Group One Lockinge on testing ground. He won this race in 2020 (rearranged) and in 2018 and it's fair to assume that this will have been his early season target.
Bell Rock is close to challenging him for favouritism but I'm not quite sure where the improvement is going to come from. I thought he had a lot in his favour when winning at Newmarket and am more than happy to oppose him today.
I like Escobar at a price and (nominally I hasten to add) would look to get him onside, perhaps in forecasts with the jolly and Duke Of Hazzard. Apparently Escobar looks very well but Dixon thinks he's more at home in a big field handicap.
More from Murphy: "She's a beautiful mover and she went to post very chilled. Her lead changes enabled her to be at home on this track; gorgeous type, very athletic.
"Archie and I spoke this morning and she could go for the Duke of Cambridge next but I haven't spoken to him yet. She's just a beautiful type.
"I'm looking forward to Stone of Destiny. And Kimifive is handicapped to be bang there and the track will suit.
"If Bolshoi Ballet repeats his Leopardstown performance - and I think he will - then he'll be hard to beat."
He also gave a positive mention to Third Realm and blamed himself for Patient Dream's defeat in the opener which seems a little harsh to me.
1435: They're off.
Statement is towards the rear. Parent's Prayer leads. Lottie Marie second and Maamora has made a positive move on the outside. Statement moves well in the middle of the track but is now being asked to pick up and the response isn't immediate as the leader goes three clear.
Parent's Prayer makes all under Oisin Murphy and leads home the easy to back Nazuna and Statement with the distances about three lengths and the same. A little less between the first two and a little more from second to third as they play the slow mo.
The winner was returned at 4/1.
The first race was very dramatic and that was very simple. Jump, travel, kick, ease up.
The winning time was 1.44.25.
The winning jockey: "I'm thrilled for her owner. He's got a good racehorse. She's a beautiful mover, she was always going to be a group winner one day, she's strengthening up.
"It's drying, it's good to soft and it's brilliant to back here riding winners on Derby Day with a crowd."
Murphy also paid due credit to winning trainer Archie Watson who is enjoying a good meeting.
1427: Lydia Hislop is watching them go down to post.
Maamora is keen reportedly. Nazuna wears a red hood in the preliminaries to try and keep her calm on the way to the start.
Otherwise, it's just a run through the form and not too much to report. It's a fairly quiet market too with Statement 15/8 and still 4s bar.
Apparently Maamora scoped badly after Goodwood which offers her an excuse for that defeat.
Martyn Meade on Statement: "The Fred Darling was a great run and we always had a little bit of doubt as to whether she would get a mile.
"Looking back at the Guineas I don't really think that was a reflection of her. It didn't help the way the race unfolded but she didn't seem to be on form."
Statement is getting shorter all the time and there seems to be plenty of confidence behind her. She is the one to beat at the weights.
1414: The Group Three Princess Elizabeth Stakes (sponsored by Cazoo) is up next and the runners are in the pre-parade ring.
Statement ran well in the Fred Darling before failing to back that up in the Guineas. She heads the market as she drops in class and trip.
Dixon mentions Queen Kahlua as being a big price. She ran quite well on debut for Stuart Williams to finish fourth over six furlongs, staying on in a manner which suggested this longer trip would suit. That was only a Listed race but the winner was only beaten a length in the Group Two Sandy Lane Stakes next time so the form is solid enough and this only looks a fairly average race for the level.
Parent's Prayer is solid and has been beaten a little over a length on her last two starts in Group Three but that doesn't scream 'back me' to me and she's the 4/1 second favourite.
Nazuna wasn't sighted in the pre-parade ring by Dixon and Luck but the former was keen to see her in the flesh, commenting that she wasn't the biggest last year and he was wondering whether she has trained on. She can be backed at 9/2 alongside Maamora.
1408: A word from Turner: "I think he likes racing tight and challenging close to them so I think it motivated him."
She believes the ground is as advertised, namely good to soft.
The winning time was 2.09.78 which is four seconds above standard and points to the ground having dried out a little bit.
1356: Luck says: "There's some genuine heat in the sun, it really has warmed up in the last half hour or so."
I'm jealous.
Runners are all on the course and meandering towards the start.
ITV are interviewing Ben Curtis who rides King Frankel and after some chat about the Oaks and Derby he says: "He's done nothing wrong. Fingers crossed for a big run. Hoping to kick the day off well."
Not revelatory.
Loading quickly and underway a minute past post time.
King Frankel not that quickly into stride and he's last and not doing a tap. Zhang Fei leads King Zain. The pace looks steady. Patient Dream has settled nicely for Murphy as they pass the five furlong pole. The leaders have kicked down the hill around Tattenham Corner.
Patient Dream has no luck un running and can be given another chance. King Frankel stays on all too late in the day but does force a photo with Solent Gateway.
I thought Greatgadian had won and am still slightly bemused that he was only third.
The winner is Solent Gateway at 28/1. By a nose.
A dramatic start to proceedings. Apparently King Frankel reared in the stalls.
The winning rider was Hayley Turner and the trainer Tom Dascombe.
1348: "Greatgadian does look a little bit awkward under pressure but he's got potential from his mark," is the view of Dixon as he and Nick Luck cast their eye over the runners for the first at Epsom.
King Frankel was Dixon's idea of the winner.
He felt Patient Dream had been laid out for this race but this is a stronger contest than the one he won and that he will need to settle better to see out this longer trip.
Patient Dream is holding onto favouritism at 9/4 with King Frankel 5/2.
The Cazoo Derby is not the only Classic this weekend with the French Derby taking place tomorrow and John Gosden runs two, including Dante Stakes second Megallan.
Lydia Hislop reports Zhang Fei to be looking well and that Oliver Cole believes his new recruit has a lenient handicap mark. She also reveals that Andrew Cooper was tempted to change the ground from good to soft to good to soft, good in places but opted to wait until the first race was run.
1336: There's another non-runner in Epsom's first since I last looked at that race and it's another significant one as far as placepot or each-way backers are concerned as it reduces the field to seven which could be bad news for those who took the fancy prices about Zhang Fei, expecting the 'dead eight' to face the starter.
Yesterday's rain may not have suited everyone but Andrea Atzeni was quite happy to see it as he told Matt Chapman when talking about Third Realm.
"He's not a flashy worker but he gets the job done and the rain that came yesterday will have helped his chances. We're very hopeful for him.
"At the end of the day it's all about the afternoons. We've got horses that work well in the mornings and don't turn up in the afternoons, this one's the other way around. Let's hope he's good enough.
"If we get a clear run round, I can see this fellow running a big race."
1329: "It's difficult to find chinks in him. He gives every impression he's going to appreciate the mile and a half. The draw in stall nine is quite positive and he seems very versatile tactically.
"The time performance was good in the Derrinstown. It was impressive. There was a point in the Derrinstown he was explosive and did look top-class. There shouldn't be any excuses if he is of that calibre and I think he is."
Words there from Martin Dixon about the Cazoo Derby favourite Bolshoi Ballet.
Dixon throws up Adayar as St Leger horse for the end of the season and thinks that he may lead under an aggressive ride from Adam Kirby.
He doesn't like the draw for John Leeper and believes Frankie Dettori will have no easy task to both settle him and get a good racing position.
He concludes that he wouldn't be surprised to see Bolshoi Ballet produce a dominant performance but puts in a word for Third Realm.
1323: Doncaster's card starts with a 14 furlong handicap and the field are through halfway.
They are racing down the centre of the course.
Flash Point has travelled well for a long race but he's passed by several rivals inside the final furlong or so with Cogital and Clifftop Heaven sweeping past and the former, a tricky ride, took the honours for Jordan Williams.
The winner was returned at 5/1 and trained by Bernard Llewellyn.
They are at the post for the opener from Hexham while the ITV Racing coverage is now live as the build-up to Cazoo Derby Day heats up a little.
1305: George Boughey enjoyed an excellent day at Epsom yesterday and has a couple of runners there today too but his best chance of a winner, according to the betting, is Air To Air who has been backed into 13/8 from 4/1 in the finale at Doncaster where Jamie Spencer will be in the saddle.
Hugo Palmer has sent runners to Musselburgh and Town Moor and Oz Legend is another well backed runner at the latter track having finished a respectable fourth in the London Gold Cup (form that ties in with King Frankel in Epsom's first) last time; he's 7/4 from 7/2 but Sir Michael Stoute's Tawareeq has been the subject of a similar move so it may not be plain sailing.
William Haggas' attention may be firmly and squarely on Epsom but he has a fine strike rate at Musselburgh and Dhushan has been backed into odds-on to win the Edinburgh Cup while smart but frustrating juvenile Yazaman has accompanied him on the journey - both will be ridden by Danny Tudhope.
1251: There is some 7/4 about Bolshoi Ballet for the Cazoo Derby and it will be interesting to see which way he goes in the market over the next couple of hours.
The betting behind him has settled down to some extent with Hurricane Lane 13/2 and Mac Swiney 15/2 while Mohaafeth and John Leeper can both be backed at 10/1.
One Ruler and Third Realm have both attracted support and are 12/1 chances and it's 33/1 bar.
The action away from Epsom is already underway with the first at Tramore having gone to Henry De Bromhead and Racheal Blackmore. The openers from Listowel and Doncaster aren't too far away with a valuable card at Musselburgh starting a little later.
The 1505 at Doncaster caught my eye. Not only because it's a well contested handicap with a £25k prize fund but because Sam Hitchcott was riding a leading contender in Reverend Hubert.
Hitchott has enjoyed some good days in the saddle but has had just four rides this season and hasn't ridden a winner since 2017 which fairly astounded me. There's no doubt this is a tough, tough game for many and few would begrudge him victory this afternoon I'm sure.
1228: Ray Dawson enjoyed a decent 2020 in the saddle and things are going pretty well this season too.
He has a live chance in the Dash aboard Recon Mission although a draw in stall one is no positive (but has been overcome in recent seasons). Tony Carroll's sprinter is quick and won over course and distance in April from just 3lbs lower.
He didn't have a hugely successful four-year-old campaign but connections did let him take his chance in the Abbaye at the back-end of 2019 (he was over 100/1) and I wouldn't be completely surprised if he ended up in pattern races this autumn.
This race, not surprisingly, has been the aim since his reappearance and he appeals at a double figure price with some firms paying down to sixth.
The form claims of Dawson's ride in the Northern Dancer Handicap that follows the Derby are less obvious but I thought he was capable of outrunning his price of 33/1.
Autumn War has been kept busy on the all-weather since joining Ian Williams from Charlie Hills and won a couple of races in cheekpieces (absent today) but hasn't been out since the middle of February.
Williams saddled Byron Flyer to be second at a big price in the last running of this race (2019) and Autumn War ran well enough in similar races from around his current handicap mark (he's by no means well treated) to believe that he can make his presence felt if able to run close to his best on this return.
Plenty of ifs and buts but the front two in the betting aside, I didn't think there were many in the field with cast iron claims and Dawson finished second on his only other ride for Williams so I'm happy to take his booking as a positive.
1215: There are two significant non-runners from the second on the card which is rather a shame as I was quite keen on one of them.
Statement bids to boost the Guineas form in the Group Three Princess Elizabeth Stakes (sponsored by Cazoo) and she's the one to beat at the weights.
Nazuna isn't rated too far behind her (3lbs) but hasn't been sighted since the Breeders' Cup so has to prove that she's trained on while Maamoora is higher rated (by 2lbs) but has to concede 12lbs to the three-year-olds.
The latter was a beaten favourite at Goodwood and undeniably disappointing but she does have William Buick in the saddle and he'll know all about the job ahead of them as he has been on board Statement the last twice.
There are also two non-runners from the Cazoo Diomed Stakes which has reduced the each-way terms on offer which is frustrating as I thought Escobar was worth chancing.
Century Dream is a former winner of this race and there's every chance that he'll bounce back from his run in the Lockinge and justify his odds but Escobar has run some decent races in pattern company, notably when finishing third behind Space Blues in the Lennox Stakes at Goodwood.
I can see him running to a similar level this afternoon and that could be enough to make the frame as there are question marks over most of the field but he's a less appealing bet with only two places on offer. Perhaps forecasts might be the way ahead.
1208: Going update from Andrew Cooper via twitter:
"After latest walk of the course @EpsomRacecourse on @CazooUK Derby Day we will leave the going for now as Good to Soft. Currently 21 degrees and sunny (max 22?)."
The first race is still a little under two hours away so there's plenty of time for the ground to continue to quicken and the race times from the opening 10 furlong handicap and jockey comments will be eagerly awaited.
Niall Hannity says it 'will be no excuses ground' and he would have preferred it to be slower for his each-way fancy Youth Spirit.
1205: The Racing TV Team Tips pointed us in the direction of Rhoscolyn yesterday but today nearly everyone is focusing on the Cazoo Derby.
Niall Hannity: Bolshoi Ballet (Youth Spirit will outrun his odds and be placed)
George Baker: Third Realm (fantastic each-way chance)
Neil Philips: Mohaafeth
Dave Yates: Century Dream (Bolshoi Ballet in Derby)
Tom Stanley: Mac Swiney (very keen on two leading Irish chances but more juice in his price)
If you agree with Stanley, you may want to consider the Betfair special flagged up by Barry Orr and mentioned in the post at 1144.
1148: The opening World Pool At The tote Handicap has thrown up group horses in the time and the same is true of the London Gold Cup at Newbury.
King Frankel finished second in the latter race and is a leading contender here despite a 6lb rise in the weights. He's one of three runners for Mark Johnston.
He might reasonably have been expected to be shorter than 11/4 but the form of Oisin Murphy's ride Patient Dream could hardly be working out any better with five of those behind him at Epsom in April winning subsequently.
That was over a mile but this son of Al Kazeem should have no problem with, and could well improve for, the step up to 10 furlongs.
Greatgadian seems to be held in high regard and reportedly wasn't suited by the testing ground at Sandown last time while there's been a notable move for Zhang Fei.
There may only be eight runners but this appears to be a fairly deep race regardless.
Patient Dream has shortened up since I started this post some 10 minutes ago and is as low as 2/1 in places.
1144: There's more to the card than the Cazoo Derby and I will touch on the other races but there's another update from Betfair's Barry Orr.
"Bolshoi Ballet is 15/8 and on a little bit of a slide on the exchange. I can see him going off at around 2/1. Hurricane Lane 7.8 and has been very, very strong. Mac Swiney going in the other direction.
"There are some good specials on the Sportsbook.
"If you think Godolphin will win with one of their three, that's 10/3. An Irish 1-2 is 11/4. Bolshoi Ballet to win by 5+ lengths is 7/1."
1140: Martin Dwyer is in the Racing TV studio and thinks it could be a completely different track to yesterday with fresh ground for the Derby and the drying conditions.
"I wouldn't be looking for a soft ground horse," he says.
Andrew Cooper set out to walk the track around an hour ago so it shouldn't be too much longer until we get an update on the going and whether it has dried out significantly through the morning.
1133: Jim Bolger flagged up Mac Swiney as his Derby horse at a very early stage last season and it's reasonable to say that it was greeted with some scepticism.
That still seems to be the case despite his victory in the Irish 2000 Guineas and he's on the drift this morning with people seemingly keen to pin him down as a mudlark.
It's a slightly odd scenario with Mac Swiney easy to back on account of drying ground and Mohaafeth weak due to yesterday's ground. Perhaps it's not that simple.
Bolger doesn't believe that his colt is ground dependent despite two defeats on good ground and his victories on a testing surface (he did scope badly after his Derrinstown defeat so that run can be easily excused) and it would be dangerous not to give credence to his view at least.
I certainly think he will stay and his performance at the Curragh last time was an excellent one. The more he drifts, the more tempted I become to take a chance on his ability to handle the ground and his form entitles him to be one of the leading contenders alongside Bolshoi Ballet. The 8/1 seems insulting.
1114: Yates and Stanley are now discussing the 'rest' of the field and have started with John Leeper and his 'untapped potential'.
I'd be surprised if anyone could argue convincingly against that view but the crunch point, which they are now making, is whether this will come too soon.
There seems to be a consensus that people would be delighted to see him win and that he has the potential to do so.
Mohaafeth is now coming under the microscope and he was ridiculously impressive at Newmarket on his most recent start. The form of that race is way below the standard to win the Derby but he couldn't have done it any more easily and William Haggas doesn't have runners in this Classic for the sake of it.
His first two runners in the Epsom Classics - Shaamit and Dancing Rain - both won and his third, Vow, finished fourth in the Oaks.
Yesterday's rain wasn't in his favour but the conditions should dry out reasonably quickly and I'm sure connections won't be rushed into any decision in regarding his participation.
Third Realm didn't make his debut until November and didn't open his account until his second start at Nottingham in April. He took another big step forwards in beating Adayar at Lingfield in smooth fashion and the imponderable, as it is for many of these, is whether he has the ability to take the requisite step forwards and whether he is far enough forwards in his development to be able to do so this afternoon.
A couple of weeks ago Timeform's John Ingles took a look at what it takes to win the Derby and if you missed it first time around, I'd encourage you to have a read by clicking on the image above this post.
1105: The fairytale result for many would be to see John Leeper winning for Ed Dunlop under a certain Frankie Dettori.
He (the horse) has looked a very exciting prospect so far and he did well to win at Newmarket last time as he did a huge amount wrong in the race.
That may be testament to his ability and he's entitled to be learn from the experience but I'd be worried that this will come too early in his career for him.
The experience of Snowfall was pointed out in the aftermath of yesterday's Oaks and I think it will be too big an ask for John Leeper given how green he has looked in his career thus far.
Having said that, I'd thoroughly enjoy seeming him come home in front.
1058: The Dante Stakes has a fine reputation as a Derby Trial and Hurricane Lane retained his unbeaten record at York.
That was just his third start and he definitely shaped as though he would appreciate the step up to 12 furlongs.
The Frankel colt was outpaced when the tempo quickened at around the two furlong pole before gradually finding his stride and grinding out victory.
I had to ask myself whether his performance had been slightly overshadowed by the run of ante-post Derby favourite High Definition who was the focus of a lot of attention and I probably was guilty of that.
There was plenty of talk yesterday about how important speed is at Epsom and the fact that he did take time to hit his stride is enough to put me off his chance this afternoon, at his price of 13/2 anyway.
Stablemate One Ruler is expected to be the last off the bridle but the big question is whether he will stay the final two furlongs and we saw that Saffron Beach failed to do so in the Oaks yesterday but it's interesting that both Godolphin runners have been quite well supported so far.
1050: Epsom's clerk of the course tweeted the following 16 minutes ago:
6.4 @TurfTrax reading @10am @EpsomRacecourse. Our 5 year average for Good to Soft ground is 6.4. Walking now and going update to follow - remains Good to Soft for now...
The tweet was accompanied by a photo looking down the straight towards the stands which shine under a bright blue sky.
I'll keep an eye on his twitter feed for the results of his walkabout while no doubt, he'll be interviewed on Racing TV as soon as he's available.
1041: From the half an ear I had on Racing TV, I don't think Stanley and Yates have reached any definitive conclusions as they're moving on to talk about the Godolphin runners when they return but the latter is a fan of the favourite; whether that translates to wanting to back him at the price remains to be seen.
I've spent some of my morning watching replays of the trials and I thought Southern Lights could well have finished (a distant) second to Bolshoi Ballet in the Derrinstown but for the interference that he met.
The potential lack of pace could be a problem for a colt who may be more likely to end up in the St Leger but a number of firms are paying four places and Sky Bet five and I can see him hitting the frame.
He wasn't that well positioned at Leopardstown and it was only his third start and first outside maiden company and see no reason why he shouldn't take another big step forwards. I know the form isn't all that but that's reflected in his price.
1038: Here are some market movers from Sky Bet and a word from Paddy Power's Paul Binfield:
Sky Bet
1400 – Zhang Fei 12/1 from 25/1
1545 – Sunday Sovereign 3/1 from 9/1
1630 – One Ruler 12/1 from 18/1
1715 – Group One Power 7/4 from 5/1
1750 – Ejtilaab 4/1 from 11/2
Binfield said: “Unsurprisingly Bolshoi Ballet is pretty strong at the top of the market after his stable companion Snowfall hacked up in yesterday’s Cazoo Oaks and his Derrinstown victory looks one of the strongest pieces of form on offer, but we’ve also seen plenty of support for Hurricane Lane who obviously scored in the Dante in the colts’ equivalent of the trial Snowfall won at York.”
1026: Promising news for Value Bet and followers with the money for One Ruler and Zhang Fei as they are two of four selections for Matt today.
There's no shortage of tips, views and previews on the site and they can all be found via the links at the top of the page.
Tom Stanley and Dave Yeats are the two presenters currently previewing the action on Racing TV and they're starting with the Derby and the decision of Aidan O'Brien to run just one horse in the Classic.
Bolshoi Ballet was ridden forwards when winning the Derrinstown and showed a good turn of foot. He has been described as a straightforward and genuine horse so perhaps connections are quite hopeful that he'll be able to control his own destiny from, or close to, the lead.
1018: Betfair's Barry Orr is speaking to Racing TV.
"How short he (Bolshoi Ballet) gets is open to debate but it's shaping up to be a really good renewal.
"I think we went 7/1 from 33s and subsequently shortened her (Snowflake) into 5/1. We've yet to see Love this season but three-year-old fillies have such a good record in the Arc.
"He (Bolshoi) was as big as 2/1 on the exchange yesterday when the rain came but he's 6/4 on the Sportsbook. Hurricane Lane is into 6s. Good money for One Ruler, he was 25/1 yesterday. Mohaafeth is a negative. Paying four places on the Sportsbook is a big concession. We've seen good money for Gear Up as well, 28/1 is coming under pressure.
"Two non-runners in the Diomed so only two places on the Sportsbook but original places stand on the Exchange so three places there. Century Dream is 7/4 and Bell Rock 11/4.
"There's one (market mover) in the first race it is Zhang Fei for the Coles, was 33/1 and into 12s. In the Dash, Sunday Sovereign has been really strong, 13/2 > 4/1."
1007: A happy Cazoo Derby Day to you all.
It feels much more like a summer highlight with the sun beating down rather than the rain falling too.
Andrew Cooper spoke yesterday about how quickly Epsom dries out and with temperatures set to hit 25C or so and the Derby not being run until 1630, it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if conditions ended up on the fast side of good despite yesterday's unforecast amounts of rain.
There was almost 12mm of rain rather than the predicted 2-4mm and it was still drizzling at 6pm.
That has led to quite a few non-runners on account of the going (still good to soft) which surprises me a little, I would have thought connections might have been tempted for a race or two to be run.
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