Ten-year trends and statistics for QIPCO 2000 Guineas at Newmarket
Matt Brocklebank pores over the past 10 renewals of the QIPCO 2000 Guineas and highlights the key trends ahead of Saturday's feature.
Group One winner - 5/10
Half of the last 10 2000 Guineas winners had been successful at the highest level prior to claiming Classic glory, while in total seven of the recent sample group had been placed in Group One company.
So previous experience in the big league looks a good pointer and throws up some interesting angles ahead of the 2018 edition.
Firstly, two right near the top of the market who do not tick this particular box are Gustav Klimt and Elarqam, who have won at Group Two and Group Three level, but will move up in class on Saturday.
It’s also a negative for Expert Eye, who flopped when odds-on in the Dewhurst.
Like Expert Eye, James Garfield and Rajasinghe have raced in Group Ones but made little impact, whereas Roaring Lion, Masar and Cardsharp all have placed form at the top level thanks to a second in the Racing Post Trophy, and respective thirds in the Grand Criterium and Middle Park.
Saxon Warrior is the only qualifier in this section. He famously battled back to beat Roaring Lion on his first attempt in elite company in the Racing Post Trophy when last seen.
Three or more runs - 8/10
It seems experience can be crucial when it comes to the difference between Classic success and defeat, with only a couple of Guineas winners in the past decade achieving the feat after just two previous racecourse visits.
Two of this year's entry are attempting to follow the footsteps of Camelot and Makfi in that regard, and they are the well-fancied Elarqam, along with outsider Raid.
The mean average of runs Guineas winners had under their belt over the last 10 years is 4.2, though it's worth noting the modal figure is six, with Churchill, Gleneagles and Dawn Approach all winning at HQ following half a dozen starts, all at two (again, more to follow).
There are six this year who have had six goes already, namely Craven Stakes winner Masar, James Garfield, Headway, Tip Two Win, Nebo and Cardsharp.
Those to have had exactly four starts (closest to the mean) are Gustav Klimt, Expert Eye and Murillo, which leaves Saxon Warrior who has had three.
Prep race - 3/10
Prep races seem to have, by and large, gone out of fashion across the board in racing and far more horses are now being tuned up for their key targets away from the heat of battle.
Aidan O'Brien leads the charge and it's notable that none of his past eight 2000 Guineas winners had been seen at three before striking at Newmarket in the first Saturday of May.
Half of those pre-date the catchment zone for this feature, but his Henrythenavigator, Camelot, Gleneagles and Churchill are joined by John Oxx's Sea The Stars, Jim Bolger's Dawn Approach and the Hugo Palmer-trained Galileo Gold as Guineas winners to have come straight here.
If taken at face value, it's a negative for market leader Gustav Klimt, who won the Leopardstown trial last month.
Others to have prepped with a public run are James Garfield, Headway, Masar, Expert Eye, Roaring Lion, Tip Two Win, Raid, Nebo and Cardsharp.
Unusually, Murillo, Rajasinghe, Elarqam and Saxon Warrior make up just the four qualifiers in this section, with the final trio all winning first time out as two-year-olds. Rajasinghe is the only one to have won first time out as early as May.
Form at 1m - 4/10
Six winners had yet to race at the 2000 Guineas distance of a mile heading into the race, with Galileo Gold, Camelot, Frankel and Sea The Stars those to buck the trend.
Masar has unusually had four starts over at least a mile and every one of Saxon Warrior's three starts to date have come over the Guineas trip.
The two at the top of the market who look capable of significant improvement as they move up to a mile for the first time are Galileo colt Gustav Klimt and Elarqam, whose parents both won the Guineas (Frankel x Attraction).
They are both bred for the distance, and further, hinting strongly at further potential, which isn't necessarily the case with the less-heralded Headway, Murillo, Nebo and Cardsharp, who could conceivably all end up in the sprinting ranks by the end of the year.
CONCLUSION
Elarqam falls short on Group One form as well as the number of runs he's had but so strong is his potential moving up from seven furlongs to a mile that he simply has to enter calculations.
His trainer Mark Johnston is not renowned for leaving horses short of a gallop and the Frankel colt looks bound to be hard-fit for his seasonal debut.
Otherwise, the focus is unsurprisingly on Aidan O'Brien's trio of runners with SAXON WARRIOR afforded the vote.
He's got Group One winning form, takes the well-trodden Ballydoyle route having not had a prep and has the balance of enough experience, without being too exposed.
The possible sticking point is whether the antepost Derby favourite will be sharp enough to win a Guineas before he is stepped up in distance, especially having been solely campaigned at a mile last year.
However, despite his style of racing, Saxon Warrior's pedigree isn't absolutely laden with stamina. His dam Maybe won over six furlongs at two and she's out of a five furlong Listed winner, as well as being a sister to seven furlong winner Promise To Be.
Last 10 QIPCO 2000 Guineas winners
2017 Churchill
- Group One winner: YES
- Number of runs: 6
- Run at three: NO
- Form at 1m: NO
2016 Galileo Gold
- Group One winner: NO
- Number of runs: 5
- Run at three: NO
- Form at 1m: YES
2015 Gleneagles
- Group One winner: YES
- Number of runs: 6
- Run at three: NO
- Form at 1m: NO
2014 Night Of Thunder
- Group One winner: NO
- Number of runs: 3
- Run at three: YES
- Form at 1m: NO
2013 Dawn Approach
- Group One winner: YES
- Number of runs: 6
- Run at three: NO
- Form at 1m: NO
2012 Camelot
- Group One winner: YES
- Number of runs: 2
- Run at three: NO
- Form at 1m: YES
2011 Frankel
- Group One winner: YES
- Number of runs: 5
- Run at three: YES
- Form at 1m: YES
2010 Makfi
- Group One winner: NO
- Number of runs: 2
- Run at three: YES
- Form at 1m: NO
2009 Sea The Stars
- Group One winner: NO
- Number of runs: 3
- Run at three: NO
- Form at 1m: YES
2008 Henrythenavigator
- Group One winner: NO
- Number of runs: 4
- Run at three: NO
- Form at 1m: NO