Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe preview: Sosie, Shin Emperor and Al Riffa set to star

By Graham Cunningham

Horse Racing

Mon September 30, 2024 · 2M ago

The France Galop website is in no danger of underselling the 2024 Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

‘THE BIGGEST RACE IN THE WORLD!’ is the slogan to entice racegoers to Longchamp next Sunday but, with a nod to Steven Spielberg, it would be equally accurate to bill this year’s renewal as ‘ARC OF THE LOST RAIDERS!’

City Of Troy seeks pay dirt at Del Mar; Haggas feels the numbers don’t add up for Economics; the leaves came off White Birch well before autumn arrived; and Goliath, Calandagan and six-time G1 winner Rebel’s Romance are all persona non grata for possessing no gonads.

There's no such thing as a poor Arc, of course.

But this is surely the first Arc in history to be missing six A-listers who would all be clear top on Timeform ratings.

And, without the stayaway six, the global sextet who head the market with a week to go are extremely closely matched.

Emperor following in famous footsteps

Which previous raiders would be capable of breaking Japan’s Arc duck if teleported to the present in their prime?

Logic suggests that El Condor Pasa, who recorded a Timeform rating of 136 when run down late by the mighty Montjeu in 1999, would beat this lot good looking.

Deep Impact's 130 achieved when bustling up Rail Link and Pride in 2006 would take him very close this year.

Precious few of the class of ’24 will ever match the 131 that Nakayama Festa recorded when running Workforce to a head in 2010 and I suspect the wretched Orfevre - who gifted victory to 33/1 shot Solemia in 2012 - would trade at 1.1 or shorter in running before hanging like a gate again.

Shin Emperor, Al Riffa and Bluestocking

But the Land of the Rising Sun has endured a plain old time of it at Longchamp in recent years and it remains to be seen if SHIN EMPEROR is the one to end the Japanese drought.

Yes, he’s bred for Longchamp battle as a brother to Arc hero Sottsass and the TF rating he achieved (123) for a running-on third behind Economics and Auguste Rodin in the Irish Champions Stakes puts him bang in the mix.

Those who took a Parisian punt on him at 20/1 and longer before Leopardstown will be feeling delighted – or yorokonde – with themselves.

But I’m still not mad about Shin Emperor’s head carriage. And I’ve yet to be convinced he can do what the proven Japanese aces who came before him failed to.

Arc dream alive at 55

The other Japanese angle in this year’s Arc involves thirty years of hurt.

White Muzzle’s white muzzle had come agonisingly close to beating Urban Sea (later the dam of Sea The Stars and Galileo) under John Reid in 1993.

The Dancing Brave colt was strongly fancied to make amends for Arc virgin Yutaka Take twelve months on but he endured a torrid trip from way back when sixth behind Andre Fabre’s Carnegie, sparking a verbal volley from Peter Chapple-Hyam and a wariness of Japanese riders that persists in some quarters to this day.

Take missed another golden Arc chance aboard Deep Impact and his return to Longchamp aged 55, with relatively few major scores in recent years, is down to one short sentence.

"Take’s dream is my dream,” is the mantra that guides Japanese businessman Masaaki Matsushima, who has brought that dream a step nearer by buying into the syndicate behind Joseph O’Brien’s live longshot AL RIFFA.

It’s hard not to feel for Dylan Brown McMonagle, who has had to give way to a colleague 34 years his senior, but it’s not hard to think that Take’s Arc dream is still flickering.

True, Al Riffa found a winnable National Stakes on the last of three starts as a juvenile in 2022, but he chased home subsequent Arc hero Ace Impact at Deauville on the second of just two outings at three.

Joseph O’Brien’s colt spent the first part of 2024 under the radar but a fine second to City Of Troy in the Coral-Eclipse was a big step in the right direction and his first run over 2400m in the Grosser Preis von Berlin this summer saw him bound well clear of a couple of smart German rivals.

Fans of German racing won’t need reminding that Marienbard, Danedream, Torquator Tasso and Alpinista all used the GPvB as part of their road map to Arc success.

Al Riffa hasn’t hit the level needed of a normal Arc hero but his Sandown second and his Hoppegarten romp rank him right upsides all the Longchamp market leaders.

Put simply, the Arc bar is lower than looked likely three months ago and Al Riffa has reached a new high in the interim.

Several bookies still think he’s a 12/1 shot but, whatever your view on Take, he really ought to be shorter in a star-shorn year such as this one.

Long speed Sosie set for starring role

A trio of Group races run over the Arc course and distance three weeks before the big day ought to provide the perfect launchpad for Europe's greatest race, right?

Err, well not if you look at recent trends, which show that just two of the last ten Arc winners appeared on Trials Day (Treve and Waldgeist) with only the latter winning on both stages.

The market suggests it’s odds on that this year's Arc hero or heroine ran at Longchamp on September 15 but identifying the triallist who will blossom on the big day isn’t straightforward.

Rugged Prix Foy winner Iresine is another who can’t run next Sunday due to an absence of gonads and it’s hard to think Continuous, beaten into third at a shade of odds on, is ready to do much better better than when fifth last year.

The admirable Bluestocking was by far the fastest trial winner in getting the better of a sustained tussle with the upwardly mobile Aventure in the Vermeille.

Ralph Beckett’s filly looks sure to run her usual solid race and Aventure, a highly progressive Sea The Stars filly owned by the Wertheimer brothers, would be a fascinating runners if allowed to take her chance.

But I suspect that Maxime Guyon will be lobbying hard for Aventure to head for the Prix de l’Opera as a prime hope to leave him free to partner Prix Niel winner SOSIE for Fabre and the Werthheimers in the Arc.

Another late-maturing son of Sea The Stars, Andre Fabre’s colt was still learning his trade when third in the Prix du Jockey Club but he took care of good-class rivals like Illinois, Delius and Tamfana readily on his 2400m debut in the Grand Prix de Paris and it was a similar story in the Niel as he took command to win with his two ears pricked.

Guyon summed Sosie up neatly when interviewed by SSR’s ace reporter Katherine Ford by saying “he doesn’t have a really good turn of foot but he has long speed.”

That ability to sustain top speed for much longer than most should make him a huge danger to all on Sunday as Fabre seeks his ninth Arc success.

And, thirty years on from that turbulent day with Carnegie and White Muzzle, it would be fitting if the old French maestro and the venerable Japanese legend both play starring roles in the Arc Of The Lost Raiders.

Watson and Bradsell hold keys to the Abbaye puzzle

He’s trained by Watson and ridden by Doyle and you don’t have to have the deductive powers of Holmes to conclude that BRADSELL could put a red and white ribbon around the champion sprinter crown in Sunday’s Prix de l’Abbaye.

A dash of Sherlock-style shrewdness has been essential in trying to solve the puzzle of France’s premier sprint, which often throws up hard luck stories based on the draw, luck in running or a combination of both.

But the late Highfield Princess bucked the low draw trend when scoring from gate 14 last year and Bradsell heads to France with equally strong claims after landing the leading 1000m contests in Britain and Ireland with high-class displays of controlled aggression.

Believing gave Archie Watson's colt most to do in the Nunthorpe and Flying Five despite being drawn wider than ideal but the suspicion remains that George Boughey’s filly makes some of her own trouble by taking time to find full stride.

By contrast, Bradsell tends to break smartly before putting his rivals in trouble by reeling off several sub-10.5s furlongs while operating well within his comfort zone.

Early reports hint that Watson fancies a crack at the Abbaye if the ground isn’t too demanding and that his high-class juvenile Aesterius may well head straight to California for the Breeders’ Cup after his Flying Childers success.

Plans can change, as can the weather, but the one thing that can be said with confidence is that most of this year’s Abbaye contenders are distinctly lacking in genuine G1 potential.

Current forecasts suggest that Paris looks in for no more than a few showers in the week ahead. And, if that’s the case, then the 6/1 offered by several firms about Bradsell will be long, long gone by the time he bids to snag his third sprint major in six weeks.

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