Rory Delargy and David Massey are back with their unique take on the day's racing action.
Racing Betting Tips: Friday December 20
0.5pts e.w Patanita in the 12.45 Ascot at 100/1 (Bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4) – min 66/1
1pt win Western Zephyr in the 1.55 Ascot at 6/1 (Bet365) – min 11/2
12.45 Ascot – Class 3 (0-130) Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle 2m 5f 141y
This is absolutely loaded up with front-end pace. Take your pick from Yellow Star, Rebel Intentions, The Height of Fame, Stoner’s Choice and then there’s another four or five that like to press the pace. You can’t help but think this will be nicely set up for a finisher.
The most likely to benefit from this scenario is the favourite, Double Powerful, who will be held up out the back and who loves a good pace to travel off before being brought into play late. He’s up another 7lb for winning half a length at Cheltenham but whether that’s enough to stop him, given how this will pan out, I wouldn’t be certain.
The other that might benefit from being towed into a fast pace is PATANITA, who definitely has ability but also a nasty habit of cutting out late in his races, as was the case again when ninth of ten here last time out. That run was a lot better than it appears, only fading late, and he probably needed the run anyway, it being his first since April. He’s now had wind surgery, which should help him, and while he’d have been of more interest in a slightly lesser handicap, we can’t ignore him at 100/1.
1:55 Ascot – Class 3 Novices' Limited Handicap Chase 2m 167y
Iberico Lord’s jumping got better the further he went on chase debut at Kempton but he didn’t convince entirely as a chaser, and he’s essentially racing over the bigger obstacles as he’s become hard to place over hurdles, and given he’s been given his hurdles rating to work with here, he makes very little appeal at cramped odds.
WESTERN ZEPHYR should arguably be favourite here. He’s looked very polished as a second-season chaser, winning easily from the front at Carlisle on his reappearance and losing nothing in defeat when second to L’Eau Du Sud in the Arkle Trial at Cheltenham, sticking well to his task once headed. An easy lead looks very much on the cards here and he might be hard to peg back.
Ryan’s Rocket won well enough at Chepstow on his chasing debut but more of a concern is Fergal O’Brien’s form, which has dropped off in recent weeks. I’d not be totally dismissive of outsider Here Comes Georgie’s chances. He was impressive when successful on chase debut at Wetherby, jumping nicely in the main and finding plenty for pressure. Pat Neville is having a cracking season in his new premises and knows what it takes to win races like this, so he’s respected.
2.30 Ascot – Class 4 Handicap Hurdle 1m 7f 152y
Toonagh Warrior is interesting in handicapping terms having run well against Mr Hope Street - a winner again since - at Southwell last time, but that was over three miles, and this is a mile shorter. Golden Move still looks on a fair mark on Flat form and he did it cosily enough at Wincanton last time, but he’s well found in the market.
Byron Hill went the wide route at Carlisle last time and that might have cost him the ground he was beaten in the end. He was a ready winner the time before and his consistency alone brings him into what is, in truth, a wide-open heat. The winner of the Carlisle contest has scored again since, as has Heritier and the form looks very solid for the grade.
3.05 Ascot – Noel Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) 2m 2f 175y
I can’t for the life of me understand how the market makes Johnnywho so short here, when both Rare Edition and Personal Ambition have form of a very similar standard. The market leader didn’t overly impress as a chaser at Newbury, with others in the paddock looking to possess more scope, and he couldn’t get to grips with The Jukebox Man. He will benefit from a stiffer test than he had at Newbury, but this test could be sharp enough as well, and he’s heavily overrated by the market here in my opinion.
Rare Edition has Ascot chase form already, having finished second in a handicap chase here last time, jumping well again and only giving best late on. It shouldn’t be forgotten he was trying to give the unexposed winner over a stone that day, and he achieved more in defeat than Johnnywho did in the John Francome.
Personal Ambition is getting the hang of things as well, improving on his Uttoxeter effort to run fourth at Newbury, and he should be cherry-ripe now. I’d rather have that pair than the favourite at the overnight odds.
Preview posted 0930 GMT on 20/12/24
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