Cheltenham Festival Specials tip, Friday, March 12
3pts biggest winning SP over 40/1 at 2/1 (Sky Bet)
I do like having a look at those Cheltenham Specials the bookie chaps like to put out around this time every year. Most, encouraging you to back short-priced good things in enhanced multis, make all the appeal of standing down the back in the freezing rain to catch a glimpse of the Supreme field (some of you will, admit it) but every now and then, there’s a nugget to be mined. And I think I’ve found one.
Every year, there tends to be a few markets formed on what the biggest priced winner of the week will be. It’s usually 7/4 each of three - 33/1 and under, 33/1 to 40/1, and 50/1 and over.
So the first thing I did was to go back and have a look at how the last ten years have fared in terms of throwing up big-priced winners at the Festival.
What do the stats say?
6 of the last 10 years have thrown a 40/1 or bigger winner up, with three of those years producing a 50/1 or bigger winner. Three years produced nothing more than a 33/1 winner and in 2016 you had to wait until the Grand Annual until Solar Impulse won at 20/1, remarkably the biggest price at that year's Festival. They must have carried the bookies out on stretchers that year.
Hold on a darn tootin’ minute though. That was when on-course bookmakers were running the shows. Has the switch to industry SP this year made any difference to the returns?
You bet it has. Whilst the market is tighter than two coats of paint at the front end, the books are as loose as you like with rags. Allow me to show you some figures.
From March 7 2019 to March 7 2020, there were...
- 113 33/1 winners
- 28 40/1 winners
- 29 50/1 winners
- 14 66/1 winners
- 7 100/1+ winners
A total of 191 such winners.
From June 1 2020 (when racing resumed) to March 7 2021, there have been...
- 68 33/1 winners
- 65 40/1 winners
- 42 50/1 winners
- 26 66/1 winners
- 18 100/1+ winners
A total of 219 such winners, and in almost three months less time.
Great time to back outsiders
It doesn’t take a genius to work out that this is a golden age for those that back outsiders. It’s interesting to note that the 33/1 winners under the old SP system have now seemingly migrated to 40/1 and bigger winners too.
That, coupled with the statistics from the last ten Cheltenham Festivals surely make a 40/1 winner this year a very likely scenario (you can get 10/11 with Hills in their #YourOdds specials that happens) and a 50/1 winner similarly so. A couple of firms have priced it up in their Cheltenham markets, and Sky Bet’s 2/1 that there’s a bigger than 40/1 winner makes a lot of appeal. Don’t forget, 7/4 is the usual price for 50/1+ anyway, and as I have just shown with those figures, that’s at least 65% more likely this time around.
We don’t normally get stuck into short ones here on the Pointers but the odds here simply look out of kilter, and are to be taken advantage of whilst they are there.
- Published at 0935 GMT on 12/03/21
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