Racing analysis: Ben Linfoot on the Paisley Park v Thyme Hill rivalry

Big two light up stayers’ division

“He’s fine. His heart has reverted to normal of its own accord,” so said Emma Lavelle in the days after Paisley Park’s Cheltenham Festival defeat back in March. But there is nothing normal about Paisley Park’s heart. It cannot be normal. Otherwise he simply wouldn’t have got there in a pulsating Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot on Saturday.

This was the stuff. This was a horse bouncing back from a fibrillating heart problem. An irregular heartbeat that might’ve cost him a second Stayers’ Hurdle crown. That was only nine months ago. But he’s back, slogging his way to a last-gasp victory like a heavyweight champion in the final round. That takes heart and warms the heart in equal measure.

He had to do it the hard way, but the hard way has usually been the Paisley Park way. There was a moment around the home turn where he was squeezed for room by Roksana and was subsequently shuffled back, losing his position. I’d say that’s probably when he traded at his highest in-running odds of 65 on Betfair, but that was the beginning of his victory charge.

Aidan Coleman was slightly critical of himself afterwards for allowing himself to panic, but such feelings were not obvious to any of us watching the jockey on the TV at home. He pulled him wide at the top of the straight and asked for his maximum effort, which he got. Then he switched to the outside of Roksana and Thyme Hill after the last which seemed to propel his momentum.

For a man who had to wait an age for his first Grade One victory – it came on this horse in this race two years ago – he’s churning them out now. This was his third top-level win of the year following his Arkle on Put The Kettle On and Epatante’s recent Fighting Fifth Hurdle success, and he might not be finished yet if Nicky Henderson’s star mare reads the script in the Christmas Hurdle a week today.

As for Paisley Park, his next Grade One assignment will be the Stayers’ Hurdle at Cheltenham in March, via the Cleeve on Cheltenham Trials Day. He’s a best of 7/2 for the Stayers’ now, a clear favourite in what is shaping up to be a red-hot division, and he’s the current king, there is no doubt.

But.

Now we come on to Thyme Hill. He traded at 1.07 in-running and that tells you he looked the most likely winner at one stage in the race. That stage being from the fifth hurdle to the last 75 yards. He tanked through this, probably a little too keenly, but he would’ve won quite snugly but for the late charge of a revitalised champion.

Philip Hobbs’ horse has two years on Paisley Park. He’s had six hurdle races in his life, compared to PPs 14. He doesn’t have the same battle scars and he does have room for improvement. Namely settling a bit better, racing a bit lazier, but these are minor quibbles. He’s a top racehorse and a top stayer and he has the tools to win a Stayers’ Hurdle.

He’s a best of 9/2 for Cheltenham and the ups and downs of that track should suit him. Unlucky in that sizzling Albert Bartlett last season that is working out so well, he’s the young up-and-comer that Paisley Park will have to reel in up the hill in March. It’s 1-1 between the pair already and what an enjoyable saga it’s becoming. Bring on the third instalment.

It’s very difficult to pick between the two. They look so closely matched. Different traits for different straights. Paisley Park was going away at the end, but I can’t get away from the feeling that Thyme Hill was mugged and that if he had been challenged earlier he might well have knuckled down and found more.

With an eye on the future, it’s my natural position to side with youth and progression in this scenario, but it’s difficult to do so with conviction after such a brave and brilliant display from Paisley Park.

There was a third horse in the race that traded at under 2/1 in-running and that was Dan Skelton’s Roksana, who finished a two-length third. She was held-up in last and made the most of her 7lb mares’ allowance, but had to give way to the big two late on.

She’s relatively unexposed at the trip – this was just her fourth start over three miles – and was only just outmuscled by two top-class stayers late on. She’ll have the option of the Mares’ Hurdle again over 2m4f at the Festival, but she’s another player in the stayers’ division, and if Skelton opts for the shorter distance at Cheltenham there is always the three miles of Aintree after that.

Talking of hearts

A quick word on the training performance of the day – Stuart Edmunds’ work with Queenohearts who won the Listen To Paul Nicholls On Betting.Betfair Handicap Hurdle at Haydock off a 646-day lay-off.

There was some market confidence behind the seven-year-old mare as she was sent off at 5/1 and what a terrific performance she put in to battle to victory over three miles in Haydock heavy under Ciaran Gethings.

It was her first go at the trip and she clearly saw it out well, so it will be interesting to see what the handicapper does with her on Tuesday after she took this off a mark of 132.

Given she beat a well-handicapped Haydock specialist in Clyne with a good bit up her sleeve she could be set for a hefty enough rise, but she’s clearly got a touch of class and her progress throughout the season is worth monitoring.