ParisLongchamp Saturday preview: Graeme North tips

ParisLongchamp betting tips: Saturday October 5

1pt win Mount Kilimanjaro in 2.50 ParisLongchamp at 6/1 (General)

1pt win Caius Chorister 4.00 ParsLongchamp at 8/1 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Arc weekend is finally upon us and anyone who intends betting on one or more of the eleven Group races on offer across the weekend – or even the handicaps if they are your thing – ought to be aware of three things which might affect their final analysis.

Firstly, follow the official going report at your peril. Last year, the official going was given on both days as 3.3 or ‘bon souple’ which translates to the softer side of good yet the times were so fast that Timeform ended up calling the ground good to firm. Quite a difference!

The latest information available from the track on Friday morning before this column went to press was 3.7, or ‘souple’, which is a slower reading than last year. Given that the weather on Friday morning was sunny, however, and the track had received only 1mm of rain and no watering in the previous seven days on top of which the going stick reading returned by Turftrax had quickened up significantly from Thursday to Friday, particularly on the straight course, I wouldn’t be ready yet to start seeking out mudlarks.

And, secondly, the rail has been well out at Longchamp since racing resumed there in September so there is every chance there will be better and faster ground on the inside which promises to be a negative for those drawn wide.

The likelihood of an officially soft surface might have ruled Auguste Rodin out of the big race but his stable look to hold a strong chance of landing a treble on the opening day which in all honesty doesn’t look as interesting a card as Sunday but, that said, two horses appeal at the early prices and I’ll get around to them as I go through the card (or at least the pattern events and the two-year-old Sales contest) in racecard order.

The first race up on Arc Saturday is the Prix Chaudenay, a Group Two for three-year-olds over 3000m which has attracted eight runners including Illinois who was last seen finishing second in the St Leger behind his stablemate Jan Brueghel having earlier won the Queen’s Vase and been second in the Grand Prix de Paris as well as the Sky Bet Great Voltiguer.

That mixture of high-level ‘vitesse et tenue’ as the French call it, or speed and stamina as we know it, is a pretty potent mix in this grade and it’s no surprise he is 11lb clear on Timeform ratings given only one of his seven rivals has much as managed to win a pattern race and that only a five-runner affair at Group Three level. He’s deservedly a very strong favourite and ought to give Aidan O’Brien his first win in a race he hasn’t come any closer than third in this century albeit from just five runners.

At his odds (2/5) he doesn’t make any appeal as a betting proposition, however, and a more interesting puzzle is what might come second. Trafalgar Square is second best on Timeform ratings for all he’s not the most consistent, but he looked in good heart when running out a comfortable winner dropped in grade in a sales race at Deauville last time.

That race was at 2000m, however, and he’s never run beyond 2400m (won a Listed race here in April) so has questions to answer on that score, while third-best on Timeform ratings, Strassia, took an unexpectedly big step forward last time when winning a listed race at Saint-Cloud, albeit doing well to come from the rear in a slowly-run affair, when she had the reopposing Dollar Index behind her in third place.

Columbus, the other pattern winner, is a proven stayer and had Strassia back in fourth when winning a Listed race at Deauville in August before following up in what used to be known as the Prix de Lutece. He was able to track a very steady pace that day, however, and perhaps the horse who will show most improvement given a better pace than he has encountered so far is Shamarkand.

He was third in the Lutece having overcome a track bias when winning a Listed race at Vichy the time before but was too far back and only got into his stride close home. Mickael Barzalona rides him again and hopefully he'll know more about the Aga Khan homebred this time. I'd be interested in him in the 'without Illinois market' at 11/4 or bigger but there wasn’t a market offering that option at the time of writing.

The second race on the card is an Arabian event which doesn’t concern me so I’ll move swiftly on to the third which is another staying event, over 4000m this time, the Group One Prix du Cadran, and much like the Chaudenay this looks something of a penalty kick for the O’Brien yard with 2022 winner Kyprios 9lb clear of the home-trained Double Major. This race isn’t always the formality it appears - after all, Yeats failed to win it in three attempts – but Kyprios has won all his five races this season and looks as good as ever unlike two of his veteran opponents Coltrane and Trueshan whose best days are behind them.

On the contrary, Double Major, who won the Chaudenay at this meeting in 2023 before going on to score by seven-and-a-half lengths in the Prix Royal-Oak, the French St Leger, looked right back to his best last time in the Prix Kergolay at Deauville, winning by seven lengths despite the race turning into something of a sprint, which wouldn’t have suited him ideally, and he looks likely to follow Kyprios home. No bet for me, though.

An interesting handicap is up next with American Flag, the horse who started odds on for last year’s French 2000 Guineas, dropping into this grade for the first time after a disappointing 18 months since but Christophe Soumillon was unable to shed any light on his well-being when interviewed at Chantilly on Thursday so I’ll concentrate next on the Criterium d’Automne, a restricted sales race for juveniles, which also looks to have a good chance of going back to Ballydoyle.

The conditions of the race pretty much dictate that the standard of entrant isn't high, and some are coming here after just one run, but the chances of twice-raced MOUNT KILIMANJARO look better than anything else after finishing just behind dual pattern winners Scorthy Champ (now rated 113p) and Hotazhell (108) on his debut and then finishing third to the now-rated 109p Field Of Gold (who runs in the Group One Jean-Luc Lagardere on Sunday) in a race in which the winner, second and fourth all won next time out.

Those credentials look better to me than any other, for all he’s not run since July, with perhaps the best of the rest being the home-trained filly Relaxx who was third in the Group Three Prix Six Perfections two starts back. Mondo, who won at La Teste last time out, and Place Fontenoy, who was second behind Mount Kilimanjaro’s stablemate Lambourn in a Listed race at Craon last time out, look the best of the remainder. If he's fit and well, which presumably he will be given the prize on offer, 6/1 looks a decent price about Mount Kilimanjaro who’ll be suited by the step up to a mile.

The Prix Daniel Wildenstein up next looks a fiendishly difficult Group Two. Just 3lb covers seven of the eleven-strong field on Timeform ratings with the 2023 French 2000 Guineas winner and French Derby third Marhaba Ya Sanafi marginally the best of them. He’s won a Listed race on his reappearance as well as the Group Three Prix Bertrand de Breuil this season but arguably ran his best race when second to the subsequent Prix du Moulin winner Tribalist in the Prix du Muguet in May.

What the ground is like come 3.25 will probably be a pointer to his chance having found Deauville’s fast surface too quick last time when beating only one home in the Jacques le Marois but he has the beating just abouts of Caramelito to whom he conceded 2lb two starts back but now meets on level terms with a much better draw than his old rival too so long as the ground is suitable.

Cicero’s Gift is another bang in the mix on his best form if attitude and surface issues don’t get the better of him but, like the more progressive Caramelito, also hasn’t been done any favours by the draw having been allotted the outside stall. Make Me King and the German-trained Penalty are other older horses with a decent chance, while the three-year-olds Ramadan (one of those who let Tribalist get a long way clear in the Moulin last time) and Alcantor, who finished ahead of the poorly-drawn Ramadan in the French 2000 but hasn’t been seen since finishing sixth in the French Derby in June, are others who can’t be ruled out in a wide-open affair.

A total of 16 go to post for the second Group One of the afternoon, the Prix de Royallieu for fillies and mares over 2800m, which is the biggest field this century. That’s quite a significant statistic, as in all the years since 2000 the race has been run at Longchamp no horse drawn higher than eight has managed to win.

That would appear to make things very difficult for Timeform’s second and third top rated horses, Roi Boissonade who was fourth in this race last year from another nightmare draw in stall 12, and River Of Stars who hasn’t yet quite recaptured her 2023 form despite a Listed win at Pontefract and has fared worst of all in stall 16.

On the contrary, Lillie Langtry winner Term Of Endearment, who had River Of Stars back in third that day as well in fourth another mare who reopposes here, CAIUS CHORISTER, has drawn stall eight.

Term Of Endearment has won on both fast and heavy ground so has plenty going for her, but there are reasons to think Caius Chorister is a good bet to reverse the placings. She has the comfortably best form in the field with narrow defeats this year in the Sagaro Stakes and the Henry II Stakes and that’s no coincidence given that both those races were strongly-run affairs which is the key to her.

She won a Listed race at Saint-Cloud over this trip last October by four lengths after being sent straight to the front by Oisin Murphy, setting a searching gallop, and so long as her rider James Doyle plays to her strengths this time and not her limitations as he did at Chester last time when partnering her for the first time (he sat behind a modest gallop and got out-speeded by Absurde) then she has a much better chance from stall six than odds of 8/1 imply.

Sea Theme, who is by the stallion who has sired the winner of this race for the last two years, Sea The Stars, is respected after her good fifth in the Yorkshire Oaks last time and has already won in France this year and she makes more appeal than any of the five three-year-olds that are taking part, all of whom look much of a muchness, including the Lillie Langtry sixth Grateful.

Caius Chorister looks a good bet to me, however, given I’d have put her in at 5/1.

The final Group race of the day, the Prix Dollar, a Group Two over 1950m for three-year-olds and upwards. Three of the younger generation have been declared including a pair, Jayarebe and Almaqam, who met last time in the Prix Guillaume d’Ornano at Deauville won by Economics.

Jayarebe got the better of that particular battle under an enterprising ride and will probably do so again given this course configuration promises to suit him better than his old rival who takes a while to hit top stride, and I fancy he’ll beat the other representative of his generation too, First Look, who ran very well when second in the French Derby but looked slightly amiss to me last time ten weeks on from an unsuccessful trip to Royal Ascot behind Jayarebe in the Hampton Court where he seemed to find the very firm ground too fast for him.

Whether he’ll beat at least one of the smart quartet of older horses, however, I’m not too sure. Birr Castle is the least talented of those but Calif, Anmaat and My Prospero all have similar chances on the best of their form.

French-trained Calif concedes weight all round by dint of a win last time out in a German Group One where he beat Fantastic Moon who bids for Arc glory on Sunday and that form looks strong given four of the eight that followed him home, including Fantastic Moon for whom the trip might have been a bit short admittedly, won next time out.

My Prospero won on his only previous trip to France, in the 2022 Prix Eugene Adam, and finished third the same year in the Champion Stakes but he hasn’t looked quite so good since albeit he won the Winter Hill at Windsor last time.

Anmaat is also lightly raced, having had only six starts in the last three seasons yet has won five of them including this race in 2022 as well the 2023 Prix d’Ispahan, and he came back from 15 months off to beat Certain Lad in the Rose of Lancaster on his reappearance.

Tactics may well be important here given how Longchamp has been riding since the course reopened for action in September, generally favouring horses up with the pace, so Jayarebe might prove hard to catch but I’m not persuaded enough to recommend a bet.

Preview posted 1210 BST on 04/10/2024

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