Paddock clues from Newmarket following Future Champions Weekend

Kempton clues

It must be said that I don't often put my hand up when it comes to covering nine-race evening cards on the all-weather at this time of year; floodlit paddocks aren't ideal for observation, you understand. However, last Wednesday's card at Kempton was well worth the trip to Sunbury, with plenty of interest in the novice races.

Pride of place goes to Detain, a good-topped son of Wootton Bassett, who followed up a debut win here in August with an impressive wide-margin victory in the second division of the seven-furlong event. He'd recorded a noteworthy effort on sectionals on debut and ran to a useful timefigure in following up. Starting off its best prospects on the all-weather has been a tried-and-trusted route for the Gosden yard, and Detain, who holds a Futurity entry, is another following that path.

Although Detain's race looked on paper a little less deep than the other division, there were a couple of newcomers that shaped well and further back a runner to note for the switch to handicap company.

Fourth home Ar Rayyan, a debutant from Ralph Beckett's yard, is a strong, good sort and very much a useful three-year-old prospect. He did well to get involved at all after blowing the start, his effort just telling late on. He looks guaranteed to win races at this trip and further.

Ar Rayyan was just edged out of third by the athletic Best Rate, another to miss the break. As is often the case with runners from the Hannon yard, Best Rate was starting off over a trip that is towards the upper range of his stamina, judged on pedigree. That he was doing his best work late on had more to do with his needing experience than suggesting stamina.

The eye-catcher in the race was Blue Train, who had shown limited ability on debut, then got stuck in the mud when down the field on his second start. Withdrawn from a small-field race at Southwell the previous evening (reason given 'other'), Blue Train was sent off at 125/1 at Kempton, but he showed much more promise than previously. Poorly placed after being dropped in from a double-figure stall, he met some trouble in the straight and was spared a hard race when it was clear he wasn't going to land a blow.

Blue Train still showed just modest form, earning an initial BHA mark of 62. He's a good-topped gelding, better looking and better bred than that mark would suggest, and he's very much one to bear in mind once he switches to handicaps.

The first division had also gone to the previous winner in the line-up, Yankee Dude following up from a victory at Lingfield on his second outing. He's a well-made colt, with the physique to progress for a while yet. In terms of stamina, he's quite hard to read, by Starspagledbanner out of a sister to the Irish Derby winner Trading Leather. However, he was on his toes (in a red hood, obviously) beforehand and showed a good turn of foot to take control, so he may prove more speed than stamina.

The newcomer I liked the most in the field was Travel Agent, a strong son of No Nay Never. Rather like Ar Rayyan, he did well to show as much as he did after falling out of the stalls (and drawn 14), his effort just fading late on. Travel Agent is open to considerable improvement.

Other newcomers to note from the race include the good-topped Cy Twombly, General Admission, an athletic son of Kameko, and Cancel Culture. The last-named looked nowhere near ready, so it was a surprise that he showed as much as he did.

Future Champions?

The rest of the week revolved around Future Champions Weekend at Newmarket. With six pattern events for two year olds, there were, as usual, plenty of pointers towards next spring's classics. Whether we saw a Guineas winner, I'm not so sure.

The main event, the Dewhurst Stakes, went to Shadow of Light, who was following up a win in the Middle Park two weeks previously. Shadow of Light was only the second colt to complete that double since 1982, his presence (supplemented) in the Dewhurst field something of a surprise after the Commonwealth Cup had been named as a target after his victory in the Middle Park.

Shadow of Light is bred to stay a mile and after his gutsy win on Saturday, a return to Newmarket for the Guineas in the spring is wisely now on the agenda. The Dewhurst was a messy race, with the five runners in two groups wide apart, but Shadow of Light left the impression he did well to win, the way things unfolded, even if he didn't have to repeat his Middle Park form.

Shadow of Light's task was made much easier by the late absence of the impressive Acomb Stakes winner The Lion In Winter. He'd suffered a bruised foot that will keep him out for the rest of the campaign, which meant his stable-companion Expanded went from being a supporting act there for experience after just a maiden win to being the understudy cast in the lead role.

Expanded must have delighted connections, knuckling down well to get the better of the stronger-travelling Ancient Truth before the winner, from the other group, came to nail him late on. Expanded is not the finished article and is likely to stay at least a mile and a quarter, so that he ran to such a high level on just his second start is really encouraging.

In the race before the Dewhurst, the Autumn Stakes over a mile, Expanded's stable companion Delacroix had got the better of Stanhope Gardens late on. This is a Group 3 that regularly punches above its weight and that may well be the case again, the form shown by Delacroix good enough to have got him in the mix in the Dewhurst. He holds an entry in the Futurity and would be bidding to follow Ancient Wisdom, who completed the Autumn-Futurity double in 2023.

The third pattern event on Saturday, the Zetland Stakes, went to Starzintheireyes. He was definitely the strongest stayer in the line-up, relishing the step up to a mile and a quarter, though whether he is the best prospect in the race I'm not so sure.

Starzintheireyes wasn't winning anything until the final furlong, the in-running market telling the story, both the runner-up Green Storm and the short-priced favourite Shackleton trading below 1.50. Green Storm looked to have the race in the bag approaching the final furlong, but it had been well run and he started to wander as the exertion told, caught in the final 50 yards.

Both Green Storm, who has bags of scope, and the tall, well-made Shackleton have much more about them physically than the size-smaller Starzintheireyes, and may well make more progress from two to three than the winner.

Friday's card opened with a maiden fillies event. At a fixture where Godolphin is one of the headline sponsors, it's not surprising that Charlie Appleby targets this race. Having landed a division with a well-backed newcomer in each of the last two years, he repeated the trick this time with Verse of Love who won impressively enough for some bookmakers to offer quotes for the Guineas.

Verse of Love, a scopey daughter of Siyouni, clearly has oodles of potential, but this looks ordinary form for the track and suggesting she's a Guineas filly at this stage seems premature.

As it happens, the Appleby yard sent out a bona-fide Guineas prospect in the Fillies' Mile later on the card. Desert Flower made it four from four with an impressive and improved performance, running on softer ground than previously. As in the May Hill at Doncaster on her previous start, Desert Flower was chased home by January, though her superiority over that filly was greatly increased.

Desert Flower's victory marked her down as a serious challenger to the Cheveley Park winner Lake Victoria, so far as the Guineas is concerned, though the latter has a narrow edge on form to date. Both are good-looking fillies with smashing pedigrees and whichever way the Guineas goes, they should both make an impact next year.

Desert Flower was quoted for the Oaks as well as the Guineas after her win, which perhaps isn't surprising for a Fillies' Mile winner, though her pedigree suggests serious doubts that she will stay a mile and a half. She might end up at Epsom, particularly if beaten in the Guineas, but she'd make limited appeal if she does.

Incidentally, Aidan O'Brien ran three fillies in the Mile, all of them out of racemares rated at 120+ by Timeform, Ballet Slippers (Magical, 128), Dreamy (Tapestry, 123) and January (I Can Fly, 122). Meanwhile Lake Victoria is out of the crack sprinter Quiet Reflection (126). He ran two in the Oh So Sharp Stakes, with his first string Ecstatic out of the 120-rated Magic Wand.

The Oh So Sharp winner, the unconsidered and seemingly exposed Merrily, is out of Caponata, rated a mere 114. Merrily has been credited with an improved effort, though she'll need to find another 10 lb or more to match her dam's rating. The Oh So Sharp, on the same card as the Fillies' Mile, tends to be a second-division contest and might be better moved elsewhere in the calendar. Though with the Rockfel at the Cambridgeshire meeting, perhaps this is just surplus to requirements.

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