Oaks and Derby tips: Fran Berry with the view from Ireland including City Of Troy and Ylang Ylang
Leading form expert Fran Berry provides his thoughts on the key Irish contenders ahead of the Betfred Oaks and Derby at Epsom.
Massive week for Ballydoyle
It's a huge, huge week, as it is every year for the Ballydoyle team, but maybe more so than in recent years at least, when you take it in the context of how the spring has gone for them in general.
No Classic win as of yet for Aidan O’Brien this year and what happened in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket and the Irish version at the Curragh, the colts have come up a bit short so far, although River Tiber did run a promising race at the Curragh last Saturday.
Classic season rolls around very quickly and we're now straight into Epsom. Betfred Oaks favourite Ylang Ylang did perform creditably in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket and it was an eyecatching run in respect of the Oaks given she travelled well, got badly outpaced on the downhill run to the Dip, then had to switch under Ryan Moore before finishing off well.
It was a bunched finish that day but she did win the Fillies’ Mile as a two-year-old and it looked like every day she ran she progressed and looked like she’d get better as she goes up in distance. The run in the Guineas confirmed the promise of what’s to come stepping up this season.
She’s drawn on the outside in stall 12 with Ryan on again and she looks a very uncomplicated daughter of Frankel who does things in a good manner. And as we saw last year, when she does knuckle down, she can find plenty.
Ylang Ylang should be in her comfort zone over this trip in what looks an open race. This filly has done it and got the T-shirt at Group 1 level.
Rubies Are Red is the O’Brien second-string and she's an interesting one being a maiden. O'Brien won the Oaks with the maiden Forever Together in 2018.
Rubies Are Red was beaten by Galileo Chrome on very testing ground first time back but there was plenty of promise and on the back of that connections decided to go to Lingfield for the trial there.
It was a pretty remarkable run – she must have been 10 lengths or more off the pace a couple of furlongs out and while outpaced at a key point on what appeared to be very quick ground, she ate up the ground and once she got organised the last furlong was good.
She was hanging quite markedly and looked all at sea but when the penny dropped she did finish well and she’s bred to get better as the year goes on, being a sister to Found. It’s looking like it might be on the soft side, at least for Friday, so she’s got her conditions, but will need to be a lot more organised.
You’d like to think that on softer conditions she might be more adept and will be able to travel better for longer.
Weld filly looks the main danger
Ezeliya’s form is there for all to see as last year she beat a filly called Wendla who came out and won a Guineas trial this spring in Group 3 company.
This season at Leopardstown, it was a really, really good return to action in the Salsabil Stakes at Navan when beating Purple Lily.
She travelled strongly throughout and tracked the eventual runner-up before picking up really well inside the final furlong. She only won by half a length but I think she was value for a bit more given she was very weak in the market on the day.
I think she was only Dermot Weld’s second winner of the season and the yard’s horses are rarely at their peak around that time of the season. I’d imagine she can only improve off that run and the fact connections are pitching her in here and travelling to Epsom – D K Weld doesn’t really have runners outside of Ireland unless he thinks they’ve come forward and are going to be really competitive.
I do think her stepping up in trip is going to be a good fit. Purple Lily probably ran a bit better than the finishing position when fifth in Sunday’s Irish 1,000 Guineas and overall I think Ezeliya is open to a lot of improvement. It’s also good to see the Aga Khan colours back at Epsom.
Noel Meade’s Caught U Looking was beaten a couple of lengths in fourth behind Ezeliya and if you look back at last year’s Fillies’ Mile won by Ylang Ylang she was only a 4/1 chance at Newmarket after winning a Curragh Group 3 on her previous start.
She never really struck me as a very strong stayer, even though she’s a daughter of Harzand out of a Mastercraftsman filly, but the ground will be suitable. She’s a likeable filly, I just think there are others open to a bit more improvement than her at this stage.
Take on Troy with promising stablemate
The Betfred Derby has seemed to revolve around City Of Troy for months now but the 2000 Guineas was very disappointing and in my heart-of-hearts, do I think he’ll bounce back? In a word, no.
All through his quality two-year-old campaign he never really struck me as Derby horse. In my mind, I just felt if all went well for him as a three-year-old then it’d be the Guineas, possibly Royal Ascot, if not the Coral-Eclipse and then possibly the Juddmonte International and onto the Irish Champion Stakes.
I never really had it in my head he’d end up at Epsom and over the Derby distance, for all that the talk with the good O’Brien two-year-olds at the end of the year is about a possible Triple Crown bid – that seems to be rolled out every year.
It's just hard to make any excuses for the Guineas run in Newmarket, it was just way below par. We all saw Auguste Rodin bounce back from a really bad run in the Guineas to go and win the Derby in really good style when he had the conditions, was stepped up in trip and had the benefit of a run, but I never had City Of Troy as an Epsom horse.
I’m fascinated to see how he runs on Saturday – especially after seeing the Coolmore work-morning videos on social media. Footage of City Of Troy and Los Angeles emerged the other morning and visually it did look like Los Angeles was the far more impressive.
It's hard to know how fast the lead horses went initially but I thought Los Angeles was the far more impressive, he was eating up the ground in comparison to City Of Troy for me. The market might tell its own story on Friday evening and into Saturday but for me, it’s got to be Los Angeles.
I was mad about him when he won his maiden at Tipperary last September, the form of which worked out well, and he went and won his Group 1 under Christophe Soumillon in France, keeping on well.
In the parade ring at Leopardstown he did look unfurnished, he looked like he was well but carrying conditions and in need of the run fitness-wise. It was a steadily-run race but he picked up well and went and put it to bed. He can only improve off that up to a mile and a half for the first time at Epsom.
Dallas Star was very, very well ridden on the day to win the Ballysax first time out in tough conditions, and he did stay on very well. He seemed to know his job, was very comfortable on testing ground, and he made full use of that.
At the time there was a theory that Aidan O’Brien’s were definitely worth taking on very testing ground, and perhaps that transpired as Illinois stepped forward to be second to Ambiente Friendly in the Lingfield Classic Trial.
Dallas Star is an interesting one and has a forward style so if he’s not pressed too hard early on then he could outrun his odds, but I do think ground on the easier side would play more to his strengths.
Published at 0752 BST on 30/05/24
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