Aidan O'Brien looks certain to saddle his 12th QIPCO 2000 Guineas favourite on Saturday and David Ord takes a look at his record with market leaders in the Newmarket Classic.
Played 11. Won 4. Enough to keep you in the Leeds United manager's job for two months, and Aidan O'Brien’s record with favourites in the QIPCO 2000 Guineas.
Not quite as strong as I’d suspected when I began researching this piece – and of those vanquished only one met with defeat at the hooves of a stablemate.
A few of those beaten went on to carve out glittering careers – others were never to win again, some were sprinters, some were middle-distance horses but they all started favourite on the first Saturday in May.
Aidan O'Brien
- 7 beaten 2000 Guineas favourites
- 4 winning 2000 Guineas favourites
- Level stakes profit backing all to £1 = +1.88
1999 - ORPEN 7/2 (15th of 16 behind Island Sands)
APOB struck with his first Guineas runner - King Of Kings in 1998 - but Orpen failed to add to the tally the following season. A well-backed 7/2 market leader, he became stirred up in the preliminaries and never ran his race. Winner of both his starts at two over six furlongs (including the Morny at Deauville) – he was never to win again. Third in the Irish 2000, where he settled much better, he was ninth in the St James’s Palace at Royal Ascot and retirement beckoned after finishing last of ten in the Prix Maurice De Gheest at Deauville.
2000 - GIANT’S CAUSEWAY 7/2 (2nd to King’s Best)
Ah, the Iron Horse. One of the flagbearers for the great trainer and a remarkable racehorse but on this sunny spring day he had no answer to King’s Best’s searing turn of foot. We only saw the winner once more, when pulling up lame in the Irish Derby, but the runner-up went on to prove himself one of the toughest and most reliable top flight performers of recent years. Wins in the St James's Palace Stakes, Eclipse, Sussex Stakes, Juddmonte International and Irish Champion Stakes spoke volumes for his toughness and constitution. He bowed out with a heroic second place in the Breeders' Cup Classic, going down a neck to Tiznow after a Churchill Downs stretch battle that is forever etched in the memory.
2002 HAWK WING 6/4 (2nd to Rock Of Gibraltar)
Ooh Hawk Wing. Gorgeous Hawk Wing. Strong travelling Hawk Wing. It wasn’t to be in the 2000 Guineas – or the Investec Derby. And for that I blame Aidan O'Brien. Fancy having the audacity to have Rock Of Gibraltar and High Chaparall in the yard at the same time as this bronze (well, bay) Adonis. And yes his CV was to only include two wins post-Newmarket – the Coral-Eclipse and Juddmonte Lockinge – but he always looked the part and travelled like the real deal.
2003 HOLD THAT TIGER 4/1 (17th to Refuse To Bend)
Favourite all winter for this and clung onto the position despite a significant day-of-race drift but never threatened to land a blow. He was never to win again and was retired after two runs in the fall (as they call autumn in the States).
2004 ONE COOL CAT 15/8 (13th to Haafhd)
A fourth market leader in five years for the master of Ballydoyle – and a fourth successive loser. He was found to have an irregular heartbeat afterwards with something clearly amiss and it was a return to sprinting that saw him resume winning ways in a Group Three at the Curragh. He looked unlucky when third in the Coolmore Nunthorpe at York but was never to win again, retired after sustaining an injury in the build-up to the Abbaye at Longchamp.
2006 GEORGE WASHINGTON 6/4 – WON
Winner, winner, chicken dinner as some people on twitter say. I don’t think Aidan did but the way Gorgeous George dispatched subsequent Investec Derby hero Sir Percy was a joy to behold (unless like me you’d backed the runner-up). He was to only win once more, the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes later that season, and tragically broke down in the Monmouth Park mud at the Breeders' Cup the following season. The 2006 European Horse Of The Year was put down after suffering multiple injuries including an open fracture of the cannon bone in his off-fore fetlock.
2010 ST NICHOLAS ABBEY EVS (6th to Makfi)
Dominated the market but not the race, never finding the necessary speed to cope with these milers on quick spring ground. However, to say he restored his reputation is something of an understatement. A testament to his trainer's genius, he went on to win six Group Ones including back-to-back Coronation Cups and a Breeders' Cup Turf at Churchill Downs, barely missing a top flight dance in between. Sadly he died in January 2014.
2012 CAMELOT 15/8 – WON
A mile was always going to be at the bottom end of this fellow's stamina limitations and the moment he crossed the line a neck ahead of French Fifteen talk of the Triple Crown was mooted – only to stall at the final hurdle. That three-quarters of a length defeat at the hooves of Encke cost Camelot a place in racing folklore – and a statue at Ballydoyle – but on Guineas day he proved a mile-and-a-half horse can get the job done in the first colts' Classic – providing there isn't a crackerjack miler in there.
2015 GLENEAGLES 4/1 – WON
He didn’t dominate the market – but did the race, Ryan Moore’s mount producing a sparkling turn of foot to win by two-and-a-quarter lengths from Territories. He added the Irish 2000 and St James’s Palace to his CV but after a four month break returned to the fold with tame efforts in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes and the Breeders' Cup Classic. However on the first Saturday in May he was electric.
2016 AIR FORCE BLUE 4/5 – (12th behind Galileo Gold)
The outstanding juvenile of 2015 he was expected to be pick up where he left off here but it wasn’t to be. Under pressure at halfway, he was one of the first beaten and while Massaat – who he thumped in the Dewhurst – was chasing home Galileo Gold the inquest into the son of War Front’s performance began. O’Brien initially blamed himself but subsequent events were to show his charge hadn’t trained on.
2017 CHURCHILL 6/4 – WON
Twice a Group One winner at two, hee picked up where he left off last May, keeping on well to fend off Barney Roy and win by a length. He followed up in the Irish equivalent but wasn’t to win again – the pick of his subsequent efforts being a runner-up spot behind Ulysses in the Juddmonte International at York.
Related links
- Latest Sky Bet odds and offers
- Latest racecards and video form
- Aidan O'Brien: Fate of the favourites
- Sky Bet Price Boost: Guineas double
- 2000 Guineas: Matt's Stats guide
- 2000 Guineas horse-by-horse guide
- 1000 Guineas horse-by-horse guide
- Pedigree Pointers: 2000 Guineas
- Key talking points: 2000 Guineas
- Alex Hammond: On the Guineas
- Ed Chamberlin: On the Guineas