Martin Mathews previews the final round of the Sony Open in Hawaii where two players on the cusp look worthy of Sunday investment.
Golf betting tips: Sony Open, final round
2pts Joaquin Niemann to win Sony Open at 9/2
1pt e.w. Kevin Na to win Sony Open at 7/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4)
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
We’ve reached the 54-hole stage of the second leg of the PGA Tour’s ‘Hawaii swing’ and there is a certain element of déjà vu about the leaderboard as the man who sits at the top of affairs, Brendan Steele, was in this exact same position at this stage 12 months ago.
On that occasion, having held a two-shot lead with two to play, Steele lost out in a play off to Cameron Smith after bogeying the 17th and failing to birdie the par-5 18th, and the obvious question is how will the Californian who last tasted victory at the Safeway Open in 2017 be effected by that experience as he bids to become the first player on the PGA Tour to win an event the year after losing out in a play off since Ryuji Imada achieved the feat at the 2008 AT & T Classic.
Steele - a three-time Tour winner - has been flawless from tee to green so far this week and, having opened with rounds of 65 and 66, he really put the peddle to the metal on Saturday, carding a career-low, bogey-free, nine-under round of 61 on his way to an 18-under total, and a two-shot lead.
On a day which saw Waialae CC produce the lowest single-round scoring average on a PGA Tour course since 2003, Steele wasn’t the only 61-shooter as his score was matched by Kevin Na, who sits in a tie for second place with Joaquin Niemann who posted a ho-hum 63 - by comparison - on Saturday.
If recent event history is anything to go by we probably don’t need to look too far beyond this trio as eight of the last 10 winners have sat in the top three positions through 54 holes, and on five occasions over this period the leader at this stage has got the job done.
Looking at the three, preference has to be for Joaquin Niemann. As those who read my own column will know, I was on board the young Chilean last week from the outset and he was outstanding on Sunday as he charged through the field with a final-round 64 before ultimately falling short in a play off after failing to birdie the final par-5 18th.
After opening up this week with a 62, Niemann talked about how he had sat down with his team, including his psychologist, for a few hours and talked through the events of the week, focusing not just on the play off loss but his performance as a whole across the four days, which obviously offered huge positives, and clearly it has resulted in him getting his mindset right coming in to this week.
I will readily admit that I was one at the beginning of the week who chose to swerve the 22-year-old this time around as I felt he would struggle to pick himself straight back up after last Sunday. I was clearly wrong.
Niemann has been playing really solidly for a while now, only finishing outside of the top-25 on one occasion in seven starts so far this season, and with his only PGA Tour success to date coming on the other Seth Raynor design used on the circuit alongside Waialae - The Old White, home of The Greenbrier - he makes plenty of appeal at 9/2.
Returning to the man at the top of the leaderboard, Brendan Steele, and as a three-time Tour winner his chances should not be dismissed lightly and from a positive point of view he can call on the fact that he won the first of his two Safeway Open titles the year after he lead the event through 54 holes before fading badly with a 76.
On that occasion, though, Steele was the hunter not the hunted as he began the final round trailing by four strokes, and when you put this alongside the fact he has a 1-5 career conversion record when holding the 54-hole lead, he is easy enough to oppose.
Another factor against Steele is that he has the time honoured issue of ‘following up a low one’ as he looks to back up Saturday’s 61, and this is something that also applies to the third man who will join Steele and Niemann in the final three-ball on Sunday - Kevin Na.
Na, who can also boast a Greenbrier trophy in his cabinet, has turned himself into a clinical winner over the last three years, adding three further PGA Tour titles to his previous lone success in 2011.
The Las Vegas resident has been in superb shape from tee to green this week and he gained just under five strokes in this department on Saturday and, remarkably for someone who shot 61, it was actually his putter which held him back. This can be seen from the fact he missed five birdie putts of 10.5ft or less in the round.
While my inclination is toward Niemann prevailing, the layers are offering four places each-way so with Na available at 7/1 I'm happy enough to add him to the staking plan as well.
Looking further down the pack and with low scores out there this week you certainly can’t dismiss the possibility of someone reproducing the kind of magic Steele and Na had on Saturday to pinch the trophy.
Of the five players on 15-under, the two who make most appeal are Russell Henley, who has been knocking on the door of a fourth PGA Tour title for a few months now, and Peter Malnati, who deserves huge credit for turning the ship around on Friday after being plus-five through seven holes.
Followers of Ben Coley’s pre-tournament column will be hoping his three selections - namely Daniel Berger, Marc Leishman and Keith Mitchell - can all push in to the frame at least from their current position of 14-under and tied ninth, particularly the latter who was 350/1.
However, with the wind forecast to pick up a fraction more to make scoring slightly tougher, I'm happy to stick with the final three-ball and take Niemann or Na to prevail in what promises to be a fascinating final day.
Published at 1000 GMT on 17/01/21