Sporting Life
Matt Temple-Marsh picks out his best bets in the touchdown markets
Matt Temple-Marsh picks out his best bets in the touchdown markets

Free NFL betting tips: Value touchdown scorers for Week 13

By Matt Temple-Marsh
NFL
Sun December 06, 2020 · 4y ago

NFL expert Matt Temple-Marsh is searching for more value and has three recommended bets in the Week 13 touchdown markets.

Recommended bets: December 6

1pt Jarvis Landry anytime TD in Titans v Browns at 15/8

1pt Michael Pittman anytime TD in Texans v Colts at 15/8

1pt Taysom Hill TD brace in Falcons v Saints at 13/2

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Tennessee Titans v Cleveland Browns

We finally saw Cleveland’s passing attack again, with no rain or strong winds holding them back. Baker Mayfield airmailed some easy touchdowns, but on the whole he looked competent.

The star was Jarvis Landry, who caught eight passes for 143 yards and a touchdown. Since OBJ’s injury, Landry has averaged a 29% target share in this offence, as their top option.

The Browns face the Titans, who have allowed 177 catches to WRs this season (third most in the NFL). They have conceded 2006 yards and 11 touchdowns to WRs, yet Cleveland’s premier pass catcher is 15/8 to score.

This price is very generous, and we can expect the five-time Pro Bowler to find the end zone.

Chicago Bears v Detroit Lions

Backing Trubisky may be alarming, but the Lions are awful.

The reason behind this bet is they cannot stop the run – they’ve conceded 21 touchdowns to running backs in just eleven games?! The second worst is 16, so they’re clear at the top.

Trubisky may not be a running back, but he is a sound runner. He’s averaging 8.3 yards per carry this season, and has seven career rushing TDs. Ideally you’d want to back Chicago’s running back, but Montgomery just doesn’t fill me with confidence.

He’s run the ball consistently poorly this season, and has just three touchdowns in ten games – Matt Nagy doesn’t trust him in scoring opportunities. Detroit’s poor run defence shows their defensive line and line backers have difficulties tackling the runner – so Trubisky should be able to find holes to squeeze through.

Minnesota Vikings v Jacksonville Jaguars

Kirk Cousins is back to his productive best, with eleven passing touchdowns in his last four games.

Kyle Rudolph saw his best game of the season last Sunday, as he caught seven passes for 68 yards. Irv Smith is set to be out on Sunday, as the Vikings face the porous Jaguars – so Rudolph should maintain this volume.

The Jacksonville D has given up nine touchdowns to TEs, no other team in the league has more. At 2/1 I like Rudolph to go for six.

Houston Texans v Indianapolis Colts

I spoke about Pittman last week, who disappointed. He had just two catches, but on a positive note he did see nine targets. He clearly has the trust of Phillip Rivers, and that volume will continue into this matchup.

The Texans have allowed 15 touchdowns to WRs this season, ranking as the third worst in the league to the position – and they’ve just lost #1 corner back Bradley Roby for the season.

Expect to see a bounce back game from Pittman, against a soft Texans defence.

Atlanta Falcons v New Orleans Saints

Love him or hate him, Taysom Hill has four rushing touchdowns in his last two games. He’s virtually killed Alvin Kamara’s productivity, but the Saints’ won’t care if it translates to wins.

He’s carried the ball twenty times for 93 yards in the past two weeks, giving himself seven redzone touches, five of them with just goal to go. He’s near unstoppable at the goal line, and has a strong matchup against the Falcons.

Atlanta have conceded more rushing TDs to QBs than any other team, and Hill bagged a brace against them two weeks ago.

Posted at 1835 GMT on 04/12/20

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