Newmarket Tips Today: Best Value Bets for July Festival THursday
By Matt Brocklebank
Horse Racing
Thu July 11, 2024 · 4M ago
Matt Brocklebank tipped winners at 66/1, 22/1 and 12/1 during June - don't miss his July Festival selections for day one at Newmarket.
- Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Value Bet tips are now available to qualified, logged-in readers through Sporting Life Plus, before the full column appears on the main Sporting Life website and App 15 minutes later.
- Following all Matt’s selections to recommended odds/stakes since taking over the column in June 2020 would have produced over 230pts in profit.
Value Bet tips: Thursday July 11
1pt e.w. Zabriskie Point in 3.00 Newmarket at 12/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt win Maxi King in 3.35 Newmarket at 33/1 (bet365) - 28/1 General
2pts win Al Musmak in 4.45 Newmarket at 7/1 (General)
Hot on the heels of Royal Ascot and taking place on a completely different course configuration, the July Festival can often leave punters scratching their heads at results and, after the thick end of 30mm of rain fell in 24 hours straight after Thursday declarations were made, it's safe to suggest I'm expecting one or two shocks at Newmarket this week.
The first race to tackle on day one is the Princess Of Wales’s Stakes, in which Hamish might look fairly bombproof to some given his incredible consistency and the fact William Haggas’s horse appears to have his ideal underfoot conditions. Above all, he’s a genuine class act and his form is just way superior to that of his rivals here – Timeform have him 6lb clear on their weight-adjusted figures.
However, I thought he had a really tough race in the Coronation Cup last time, going to the well once more in an ultimately futile bid to bridge the gap on Luxembourg, who had got first run around Epsom.
A carbon-copy performance in this Group 2 will surely see him home in front, but there must also be a realistic chance Hamish recoils at least a touch from such a huge effort, and I won’t be surprised at all if the eight-year-old finally puts in a rare low-key run, especially as it's his first visit to this unique course.
Behind him, the feature race seems wide open. Giavellotto is a quality stayer but tends to save some of his best form for York, while he’s not really at home on softer ground either, something that can also be said of likely front-runner Outbox, who has been on his travels to Denmark and France since making a winning return on the Rowley Mile, where he beat Time Lock.
Harry Charlton’s mare certainly handles some cut but she’s beginning to look a shade over-rated and typically wins when facing opponents of her own sex, while fellow Juddmonte representative Arrest, the St Leger second last autumn, is now very one-paced and has yet to show a whole lot of spark in two starts so far this season despite a respectable second at Chester last time.
As a result, the outsider MAXI KING looks worth an interest back on soft ground.
According to Timeform, it was good to firm at Newbury and Royal Ascot for his last two races and I don’t think we saw anything like the best of him as a result.
The son of Belardo had previously looked a much-improved horse when winning handicaps at Ripon (heavy) and Newmarket (good), the latter achieved in decisive fashion off a mark of 90, beating Real Dream and subsequent winners Relentless Voyager and To Catch A Thief.
It’s a world away from Group 2-winning form, admittedly, but this is a very capable horse with only eight turf starts to his name so he’s not the finished article yet, and he’ll presumably sit nice and handy early on - or maybe even take it to Outbox - and considering the conditions, I can see him hanging tough for a lot longer than the market suggests he might.
AL MUSMAK is another being underestimated on the day and while the Listed Edmondson Hall Solicitors Sir Henry Cecil Stakes isn't on ITV, it probably should be and I'll make an exception on this occasion.
Roger Varian had really high hopes for this colt at the start of the season and while he immediately failed to live up to the hype (sent off 4/1) when last of seven behind runaway winner Economics in the Dante Stakes at York, it was a tough comeback assignments in fairness to the horse.
He went on to post a far more encouraging effort in the Hampton Court Stakes at the Royal meeting, looking well set to play a leading role on the turn for home before he ran out of gas.
Whether it was another spin that was still needed fitness-wise, or the 10-furlong trip that caught him out, I’m not so sure, but he’s not one to be ignoring on the back of that display and dropping back to a mile here could be the making of him.
His juvenile form from last year, featuring seconds to Rosallion at Ascot and Ghostwriter in the Royal Lodge, plus a Listed Haydock win from Macduff, is excellent in the context of this race and I’m convinced the son of Night Of Thunder is going to relish conditions.
We don’t know that for sure yet, although the ground was riding soft (according to Timeform) on his debut last summer and plenty of his sire’s progeny love it, so I’m confident it won’t be a negative.
Al Musmak is definitely the value call against market leaders Kitty Rose and the twice-raced Lead Artist.
The Bet Boost At bet365 Handicap is the most appealing each-way punting race of the day and it’s not hard to see why the flying filly Woodhay Wonder is near the top of the market.
She has developed something of a love-affair with Newmarket, having won here last August and three times on the Rowley Mile as well, and ran another excellent race when beaten a length and a half into fourth in last month's Palace Of Holyrood House Stakes. She's never been risked on ground worse than good, though, so has to be opposed (if lining up) this week.
There are a couple from the same Royal Ascot race who merit a mention and they are Thunder Blue, who would look a big player in this on quicker ground, and Two Tribes, who will probably be a bit happier back over six furlongs and could still have more to offer having bumped into the prolific James’s Delight on his comeback run in May.
However, at the odds and with the ground firmly in mind, it’s worth chancing the reappearing ZABRISKIE POINT.
His trainer Charlie Hills won a valuable pot at Sandown over the weekend with the returning Cicero’s Gift and might be able to pull off something similar with this son of Blue Point, who has been gelded since we last saw him in action.
Zabriskie Point was competing at Group 3 level on the Rowley Mile that day and was well stuffed by Alyanaabi and company but that didn’t look a true reflection of his ability as he’d previously shown a good attitude in coming from a fair way back to finish fourth in a nursery at York, and then won a Thirsk novice under a penalty in September.
He cut a pretty smart figure in North Yorkshire, handling the soft ground with aplomb (it was quicker when he won on debut last spring) and ultimately giving 6lb to a couple of rivals now officially rated 80 and 79.
He’ll need to step up again to defy his current mark of 93 and this arguably looks a baptism of fire for his three-year-old debut, but Hills wouldn’t be throwing him in quite so deep if he didn’t think he was up to it and this race has, incidentally, been won by some fresh horses in the past, including Pass The Vino, who defied a 121-day layoff in 2019 and Progressive Rating, who hadn’t been sighted for 266 days before winning first time up in 2020.
Published at 1600 BST on 10/07/24
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