Newmarket Tips: Best Value Bets for ITV Racing Friday September 27
By Matt Brocklebank
10:20 · FRI September 27, 2024
One bet at a double-figure price for our value-seeking expert at Newmarket on Friday - check out the latest preview.
- Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Value Bet tips are initially available to logged-in readers through Sporting Life Plus, before the full column appears on the main Sporting Life website and App 15 minutes later.
- Following all Matt's selections to recommended odds/stakes since the start of 2024 would have produced 145.70pts in profit (254pts staked, ROI of 57.36%).
Value Bet tips: Friday September 27
1pt win Francophone in 2.25 Newmarket at 14/1 (William Hill)
NRs likely at HQ
Day two of the Cambridgeshire meeting features four decent races on ITV3 although I fear the official line from Newmarket on Thursday morning that stated the weather will include “the odd sunny spell but with the threat of further showers” might be underplaying things slightly.
Some forecasts are suggesting not far off wall-to-wall rain on Thursday evening right through to race time on Friday so we could ultimately be dealing with deep conditions and some even smaller fields than those first presented after declarations.
Who knows how many will stand firm for the Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Joel Stakes but Task Force is untried on anything worse than good ground and Lead Artist was taken out at Goodwood on account of the soft so perhaps only three or four if the weather predictions are proved right.
The Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Rockfel Stakes looks a bit dicey too as Aidan O’Brien might choose to swerve the option with one of his (Ecstatic has a Japanese sire while Bubbling is by No Nay Never) and Ed Walker’s Troia was a non-runner when the ground turned foul at Goodwood last month.
Troia, a daughter of Kingman and half-sister to a couple of winners, did look a potentially above-average filly when skipping to victory in a Newbury maiden and I’d be keen to see her again but can’t really recommend a bet despite the big prices being dangled at this point.
Johnston filly Franco fancied
I’ll skip the televised opening Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai British EBF Rosemary Stakes too and instead focus on the Princess Royal Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Stakes in which last year’s winner Time Lock tops the market.
She should be OK on the ground and is dropping from Group 2 level so looks the right favourite but, winless for 12 months, I’m happy enough to oppose her at the odds.
The strong-travelling Mistral Star is a threat back here and would benefit from a decent gallop being set but I'm not sure they'll overdo it on that score if it’s put down a load of rain and FRANCOPHONE might have an advantage tactically providing she's sent on.
I've been desperate to see this Study Of Man filly over a mile and a half since the Musidora when she finished second to Secret Satire, but a subsequent good-ground win over 10 furlongs in the Height Of Fashion presumably convinced connections to stick at the trip.
A shot at the Group 1 Pretty Polly at the Curragh looked a shade optimistic and so it proved, Francophone missing a beat at the start before racing too keenly and having nothing left to give late on – effectively running her race completely back-to-front.
It was back to the drawing board after that and she had six weeks off but I took plenty of positives from her comeback run at Salisbury last month. Racing over 10 furlongs again, the ground was plenty quick enough and she was only fourth in the end but did look more herself than in Ireland and was boxing on – beaten just three lengths – at the line (replay below).
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Given her way of going, and the way the course was riding on day one, I'd be amazed if Joe Fanning doesn’t just allow Francophone her head (as he did a couple of times last term) and send her straight to the front here, especially considering it's something the veteran rider has done countless times with great success in the past on this particular track.
Whether she sees the new distance out fully remains to be seen but I can envisage her racing a lot more efficiently again if dictating the pace and, considering her breeding, I’m fairly happy to risk her coping well enough with a bit of cut underfoot despite the two turf wins to date coming on ground Timeform have described as good and good to firm.
Published at 1600 BST on 26/09/24
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