It's bet365 Craven day on Thursday and our Matt Brocklebank has two tips for Newmarket, plus one on the mares-only card at Cheltenham.
- The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Value Bet tips are now available to qualified, logged-in readers through Sporting Life Plus, before the full column appears on the main Sporting Life website and App one hour later.
- Following all Matt’s selections to recommended odds/stakes since taking over the column in June 2020 would have produced over 167pts in profit.
Value Bet tips: Thursday April 18
1pt e.w. North View in 1.50 Newmarket at 11/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt win Lagonda in 2.05 Cheltenham at 16/1 (bet365, 14/1 General)
1pt e.w. Popmaster in 3.00 Newmarket at 22/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4, 20/1 General)
Another winner for in-form Walker?
Newmarket’s Craven meeting closes with another competitive and high-class card, the feature Group 3 Connaught Access Flooring Abernant Stakes scoring highly on both criteria.
Commanche Falls tops the Timeform (and official) ratings among the 14-strong field and he was beaten just a head in this race last year by Garrus. Michael Dods’ horse hasn’t had a prep run this time around, though, and the trainer – who tends to have them cherry-ripe for York’s Dante Festival in May – has had just three winners (39 starters) during February, March and April. He’s maybe best watched for now.
Richard Hannon’s Shouldvebeenaring does have an outing under his belt and it was a promising one too, the four-year-old beaten just two lengths when third in the Listed Lady Wulfruna Stakes at Wolverhampton last month.
He’s got to be respected, along with Karl Burke’s pair Spycatcher, who does go exceptionally well when fresh, and the Cammidge runner-up Marshman, who now sports a first-time hood to go along with the tongue-tie worn at Doncaster.
But at longer odds, I’ll bet POPMASTER outruns his price.
This is the six-year-old’s first every start in a Group race, but he deserves a crack at it based on last year’s improvement at the back-end of the season and Timeform have him joint third-highest on their adjusted figures, so he’s anything but out of place in such company.
It’s also not hard to see Popmaster’s high-class handicap form – and experience – standing him in very good stead in this big-field scenario as he loves having a strong pace to sit behind and should get that here courtesy of Washington Heights, Garrus and Marshman among others who like to go forward.
The grey son of Gutaifan was in danger of becoming a frustrating animal after being chinned (by Rohaan, no less) in the 2022 Wokingham, but he appeared to find another level last summer, pushing the thriving three-year-old Quinault close at Ascot before winning Newbury’s Listed Dubai Duty Free Cup Stakes from Aldaary (officially rated 113 at the time) and Al Mubhir (105).
He confirmed that level of performance – and arguably improved on it in defeat – when beaten a nose by Atrium under a 6lb penalty in the Howden Challenge Cup back at Ascot in early-October, and he’s evidently versatile when it comes to ground conditions.
He’s perhaps more of a seven-furlong horse now, on the face of it, but has claimed five of his six career wins over this shorter trip and he bolted up on his last run over six last summer.
Interestingly, Billy Loughnane was on board that day and returns to the saddle for the first time since (Tom Marquand required for Tiber Flow) and while Popmaster has often needed a run or two to put him right in the past, I’m willing to roll the dice on that score with trainer Ed Walker in such good form, including a 20/1 winner here on Tuesday.
Take a View in sprint handicap
Walker’s Tuesday winner was Watcha Matey and his juvenile form from last season ties in closely with NORTH VIEW, who looks the one to be on in the opening bet365 Handicap.
Trained by Peter Chapple-Hyam, North View missed a few engagements last season, including when getting loose ahead of his intended debut on the July Course here in the summer, but he didn’t do much wrong when he did make the track, posting three creditable efforts over distances between five and a half and seven furlongs.
The seven seemed to really stretch him on his second run, the son of Expert Eye moving smoothly to the lead with a couple to run before being outstayed by the aforementioned Watcha Matey, and that came on the back of an encouraging debut third in an Ascot maiden won by subsequent Acomb Stakes winner Indian Run, who ended his campaign (well) behind City Of Troy in the Dewhurst.
North View made it third time lucky when taking advantage of a soft opportunity at Bath when last seen in September, but he’s seemingly been allotted a workable opening mark (80), especially considering Watcha Matey won by over two lengths off 79 in midweek.
North View from a really good family – the dam is a half-sister to top-notcher Fallen For You – and I like the look of him sneaking into this off a low weight as Chapple-Hyam clearly could have looked for a lower-grade contest to start his horse off in if he felt he wasn’t up to holding his own at this level.
Lagonda can bounce back at a price
Festival winner Golden Ace is obviously the star on show on Cheltenham’s mares-only card but that’s a no-bet race and I’d rather take a chance on the well-treated LAGONDA re-finding her form in the Sporting Agenda Challenger Series Mares’ Chase Final Handicap Chase.
She’s been fairly hit-and-miss since joining Venetia Williams from the point-to-point scene – hence the big price - but isn’t fully exposed as a staying chaser, having won a maiden hurdle over this sort of trip at Chepstow 12 months ago.
That victory came on the back of a comeback run at Newbury and I’m hoping she can leave last month’s relatively tepid Doncaster effort (her first outing for 54 days) well behind now she’s been given a proper chance by the assessor.
Her best performance for Williams came in a handicap chase at Exeter last February, beaten just a head by Lazy Sunday with six lengths back to the third, and he’s able to run off just a 1lb higher mark on Thursday.
There aren’t many genuinely progressive ones in this and I reckon Lagonda is a little underestimated as the outsider of the field.
Published at 1600 BST on 17/04/24
TV bundle giveaway
We're giving away a smart TV as part of our Ultimate Sports Fan competition.
To enter, simply answer the question below and one lucky winner will be selected at random.
For full details, click here.
Key terms and conditions
- 18+
- Sporting Life account required
- One entry per person
- Eligibility restrictions apply
- Further T&Cs apply
WATCH: PREDICTING THE WORLD SNOOKER CHAMPIONSHIP
More from Sporting Life
- Racecards
- Fast results
- Full results and free video replays
- Horse racing news
- Horse racing tips
- Horse racing features
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Football and other sports tips
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.