Our experts Ben Linfoot and Matt Brocklebank take an early look at next month's valuable Newbury Handicap Hurdle following the entries this week.
The Newbury Handicap Hurdle, 3.35, Feb 8
Who wears the JP McManus white cap at Newbury?
Ben Linfoot: Three interesting chances for JP in this and I reckon the unexposed mare Joyeuse might sport the first colours. She’s had just the four runs and only three in the UK for Nicky Henderson, but she improved from Ascot to Cheltenham where she travelled strongly over 2m4f last time. She was beaten into second and that was in mares’ handicap company, while the subsequent form of those in behind hasn’t been up to much, but she is your typical lightly-raced lurker that does so well in this sort of race.
That’s not to say JP’s other two won’t have a say. Impose Toi would be dead interesting dropped back to a trip he’s massively unexposed over – he’s had just the four runs in two-mile hurdles – but he is scheduled to run in the Lanzarote over 2m5f at Kempton this weekend, if the meeting beats the big freeze, which is an indication of the route Henderson is thinking with him. He could ultimately be a Coral Cup horse.
And then there’s last year’s winner Iberico Lord. He’ll be 10lb higher this year after a likely aborted novice chasing campaign, but you wouldn’t put a line through him just because he didn’t enjoy chasing last time. It’s a strong hand for McManus as you’d expect in a race he’s won three times.
Matt Brocklebank: Iberico Lord didn’t just win the race last year, he did it with a fair bit in hand, giving 5lb to L’Eau du Sud who is obviously a very smart horse based on his novice chase form this time around. Go Dante was six lengths further back in third and he won the Imperial Cup on his very next start so I don’t think this year’s rating of 144 is completely beyond Iberico Lord. He’d probably need heavy ground again though as he’s best with plenty of cut.
Impose Toi likes a better surface which might bring him into the equation but the way he won over the extended two miles and four furlongs here in November left the impression he’d be more likely to go up to three miles than drop back to two any time soon.
I’m not convinced Joyeuse is quite there yet in terms of jumping experience and she’s plenty to find on the book to win a race of this nature, so I’d be with the 2024 hero among this lot but don’t fancy any of them all that strongly in truth.
Have you a couple of horses that are on your shortlist?
BL: While Henderson trains the JP trio I like another horse from Seven Barrows, Bo Zenith, who caught the eye on his stable debut at Cheltenham in December. That was his first run for 610 days having previously been trained by Gary Moore, but he kept on so well from off the pace for third he’ll have gone into many a notebook. Up 3lb to 138, he was placed in a Grade 1 at Aintree as a juvenile and there could be more to come from him.
Talking of Gary Moore, you simply have to respect his runners in this race given he has won it three times and his sole representative Hansard is at least shortlist material. He also returned from an absence – 370 days in his case – in December and he too ran an eyecatching race in fourth at Kempton, shaping as though the run would do him good (full replay below). I’d say it would, as he usually comes on for his first run, and Moore used the same Kempton race as a springboard for Violet Dancer’s success in the Newbury contest 10 years ago.
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MB: Oh Ben. You took the words right out of my mouth. And I swear it's true, I was just about to say I love Hansard.
I thought I had the price of the Festival when tipping Hansard at 25s for last season’s County Hurdle, especially once the rain arrived, but he was unfortunately a late defector and must have had an issue as we didn’t see him again until Kempton over Christmas. I won’t go over all of the above again but fair to say he ran a lovely prep and I just think Newbury suits him much better, having won last season’s Gerry Feilden.
Closer to the top of the market, how can the eye not be drawn to Charles Byrnes’s Brave Troop in the Paul Byrne silks?
His initial hurdles form of 007F clearly resulted in him being let into handicaps with a crazily low mark (95), since when he’s two from two after deeply impressive wins against some admittedly moderate rivals at Thurles and Navan during November and December.
The BHA haven’t published his rating over here just yet (weights released next Wednesday, January 15) but if it’s below 135 then I can see this rapidly progressive six-year-old shooting to the top of the market. In fact, he looks the one worth chancing at 12/1 antepost.
Who makes most appeal of those priced around 25/1 and bigger?
BL: You can get 33/1 in a place about Favour And Fortune and he’s a handicap hurdler worth sticking with. Alan King’s seven-year-old had a setback at the start of the season and he came back earlier than expected in the Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle at Ascot on December 21 where the ground went against him. He ran okay in sixth despite being beaten a long way, shaping well enough to think he’s got another big handicap in him at some stage.
Favour And Fortune might need better ground and could be one for the spring, but he’s got all the tools to land another valuable pot when things drop right and if there’s any ‘good’ in the description at Newbury he becomes a player.
MB: I couldn’t totally dismiss a horse like Tellherthename who is 25s with a few firms. He was kicked into touch by Sir Gino in the Fighting Fifth but that debut for the O’Neill’s was a bit of a baptism of fire and we now know a lot more about what he was up against in Newcastle.
It didn’t really work out for this horse at Ben Pauling’s but they were intending on running at Newbury last February before taking him out due to the testing conditions and he obviously wouldn’t want a bog.
He’s still very lightly raced, though, and looked a promising novice at points last year so maybe a mark of 137 underestimates his potential a little bit.
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