Free racing tips: Betting advice from leading tipster Rory Delargy

Recommended Bets: November 30

1pt e.w. The Throstles in 5.50 at Wolverhampton at 33/1 (minimum 16/1)

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Class Drop For New Yard

There is no doubt in my mind that Super Julius is a horse to keep a beady eye on this winter having dropped sharply in the weights after a handful of below-par runs. Those efforts have been at Dundalk for trainer Shane Donohoe, for whom Super Julius won twice last year, but he ended 2019 looking a little jaded, and a few spins at County Louth’s premier Polytrack circuit failed to elicit any improvement. That’s hardly surprising, however, as in three runs at the track in 2019 he managed to beat the sum total of two horses. Those poor efforts didn’t stop him winning twice and finishing second three times in raids across the Irish Sea later in 2019, and the handicapper has given him a massive chance by dropping him to a lifetime basement rating of 60.

This 5f handicap is the weakest Super Julius has ever contested, and his new trainer, Chelsea Banham, has a positive record with horses having their first run for her, albeit based on a limited sample, and I’ll be surprised if she can’t get this speedy sort back into the winners’ enclosure at some point this winter. The only sticking point is that his last race was back in March, and he’s never won after a break, and his chances depend on whether he’s been intensively prepared to take advantage of his lenient mark, or whether this will be a sighter for another day. I’ll be watching the market closely.

Well-treated Course Specialist

There are two horses which catch the eye in this extended nine-furlong handicap at Dunstall Park, with both boasting decent records at the track. There is not a great deal of pace in evidence, and what there is may well come from Grant Tuer’s Guvenor’s Choice, who won over the slightly shorter trip here two starts back, and ran well off his revised mark at Kempton last time. He’s arguably a little better at the mile and half a furlong distance here, with both his wins coming at that trip, but he’s been placed a couple of times over C&D, and could get a fairly soft time of it if going forwards, and that would give him every chance of lasting home.

The other horse who appeals, and who gets the vote after some discussion with Mr Massey (he’s only allowed to say “over my dead body” so many times), is The Throstles. The five-year-old has a course record in Class 5/6 contests of 416111, which improves to 111 over C&D, and he has fallen below his last winning mark. His trainer Kevin Frost has not been in great form as a rule, but he did provide this column with a winner in our first week with Geography Teacher, and he went very close to a 33/1 winner with Epaneema here a few days ago.

The Throstles comes here on the back of two poor runs, but he didn’t take to blinkers at Newcastle last time, and that run is written off in isolation. He ran very well with cheekpieces fitted when third in the Leger Legends race at Doncaster in September, and he now has that headgear refitted for the first time since. He does come with risks attached given his profile, but his course record makes him of obvious interest at a biggish price.

Posted at 1800 GMT on 29/11/20

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