Lydia Hislop's Road to Cheltenham: Thursday selections

JLT Chase

A scenario to consider is that clerk of the course Simon Claisse might decide to water the New Course on Wednesday night, meaning the ground on this day might perversely be softer than it was on the Old Course on Wednesday.

The favourite in this race is marmite. Yorkhill has the capacity to blow his rivals away, such was the impression he made when winning the Neptune last year but he could also mess up big time via jumping left at any stage or with clumsy early leaps, such as those over the first three obstacles in his Leopardstown schooling session.

The first fence comes up fast here and it could be game over straight away. Equally you wouldn’t put it past him losing his position and yet still looming up round the home turn – a small field helps. It seems he justifiably has a reputation for brilliance and ignorance in equal measure back home in Ireland. That makes him a hard horse to play for or against.

Lovely honest little Top Notch is the obvious chief rival. His confidence has grown in front of our eyes over fences and his best form over hurdles – his Fighting Fifth second, his Champion Hurdle fifth, even his Morebattle win – is superior on paper to that of Yorkhill, even if the latter horse held the greater potential after his Neptune triumph.

I fear there might be a tipping point with Top Notch, that negotiating these large fences at a good pace set by the likes of Politologue and attended by Disko could force an uncharacteristic error and unravel him. I hope not. He has smart Festival form and watered ground would be of benefit to him.

As for those rivals mentioned, the stiff final hill could quell Politolgue who isn’t the most convincing killer of a race, although he jumps superbly and a first-time hood helped on his most recent start. Disko seemed to thrive under aggressive tactics at Leopardstown last time but his overall form says he’s not averse to taking a lead. He’s improving.

Another to consider is Flying Angel, who rediscovered his chasing thread when winning at Warwick last time out. Last term’s Imperial Cup winner also ran well at the Festival when second to Ibis Du Rheu in the Martin Pipe. It might be that he's out-speeded on drying ground even at this trip.

Kilcrea Vale had been backed in recent days, correctly suggesting that he might head here rather than waiting for Aintree. He’s got untapped potential and coped with going left-handed last time out.

Selection:

Back Disko each-way at 5/1 bpg

Money Back as a free bet with Sky Bet if your horse loses on this race!

Ryanair Chase

Drying ground is a double-edged sword for Un De Sceaux: it places more emphasis on speed over a trip he’s unproven in Britain or Ireland but also demands clean jumping at pace. Connections are justified in their belief that he’s advantaged by soft going, which slows down his rivals.

He arrives here fresh from a career-best effort in the Clarence House when he settled better than can be the case but victory over 2m5f in a French Grade Two hurdle, where they go so steady that raiding horses can outstay their domestic form, is no more than encouraging for this task.

The 2015 winner Uxizandre is another horse with robust Grade One form. He was flattered by his proximity to Un De Sceaux over a trip short of his best last time due to being removed from the heat of that race by then-rider Barry Geraghty due to being too keen and reckless at his fences early on. He then made a belated but taking move late when it was pretty much all over.

Yet whatever the detail, this was an encouraging comeback from almost two years on the sidelines. He made all when providing Sir Tony McCoy with his last-ever Festival winner. It’s unlikely Mark Walsh will employ the same tactics with front-runners Sub Lieutenant and Josses Hill in opposition. But he is likely to seek to get rolling from about four or three out. The cheekpieces being refitted is a positive.

Reformed snooker table Josses Hill has jumped less woodenly this season but he is nonetheless vulnerable to unraveling against such a brilliant jumper as course debutant Sub Lieutenant. He does have a good record here overall, if you overlook his difficult second season over fences.

Sub Lieutenant is to be respected – he might even have beaten Gold Cup hope and subsequent Irish Gold Cup winner Sizing John in the Kinloch Brae had the omission of the final fence placed an extra emphasis on stamina and removed the opportunity for the runner-up to use his chief weapon. He surely must run well.

Talking of the Gold Cup, thankfully Gigginstown haven’t switched Empire Of Dirt to the Gold Cup (although he was still declared for that race). Far from being a “glorified handicapper” – as memorably termed by owner Michael O’Leary when excoriating BHA chief handicapper Phil Smith for his reading of Don Poli’s form – he is a progressive chaser that would have been worth his place in Friday’s main event.

You can argue that he has improved for a step up in trip this season but he did win over this shorter course-and-distance at last year’s Festival and seems to have put behind him the propensity to throw in the odd blunder. His tactics are ideal for this likely strongly run race and he should thrive.

Vaniteux unseated his rider at the second last when apparently trying to put it to Douvan in last year’s Arkle but his overall profile suggests he’s not really a fighter. A drop in trip will help Alary, who travelled and jumped well prior to suddenly plunging through the third last at Exeter last time. Colin Tizzard firmly believes he’s a smart horse but he hasn’t shown it over here yet. Aso is outclassed.

Selections:

Valseur Lido: advised 31/12/16 at 12/1 each way [NR]

Sizing John: advised 19/01/16 at 8/1 NRNB win only [NR]

Empire Of Dirt: already advised 08/03/17 at 9/2 NRNB win only 

 

Sun Bets Stayers’ Hurdle

It’s hard to pick holes in Unowhatimeanharry. He’s a course-and-distance Festival winner already, tactically versatile and capable on a variety of ground. Even the loss of Barry Geraghty isn’t a negative because he appears such a straightforward horse and Noel Fehily rode him last season anyway.

He has beaten all the main domestic challengers: 2015 winner Cole Harden in the Cleeve Hurdle when conceding 8lb, the recently switched novice West Approach and Ballyoptic via various form-lines and Lil Rockerfeller in the Long Walk Hurdle.

West Approach was flattered to get so close in the Cleeve, albeit he did get further behind than ideal in the early stages – Ruby Walsh said he fell asleep on him – and is still improving. He has place claims.

Cole Harden should last longer on better ground but I don’t buy that the inside of the track where he raced on Trials Day was as much of a disadvantage as it often is. Although Warren Greatrex was rightly pleased with what he saw, I suspect his horse will only narrow the margin of his defeat at best.

Ballyoptic is interesting, in that his reported breathing operation goes some way to explaining an out-of-kilter indifferent run in the Cleeve. Exhaustive splicing of various angles of a fog-shrouded Long Walk lead me to believe he would not have been beaten Unowhatimeanharry had he stood up at the last – but he wouldn’t have been far behind.

That same race suggests Lil Rockerfeller is overpriced. There was no fluke to that nor to his finishing runner-up to Yanworth previously. There are two negatives, however: after being driven along throughout in so many previous outings, he has shown flashes of ennui of late and he did have a setback that caused him to miss the National Spirit. That said, arriving fresh at the Festival could perversely be a positive for him.

The Irish contingent appears to be headed by Shaneshill, who’s peaked at the Festival for the past three years but does have the propensity to throw in the odd chance-ending blunder. Paul Townend knows him well, however, and has got the best from him in the past.

Stablemate Clondaw Warrior might also runs but his stamina for the task is doubtful so Ruby Walsh has chosen Nichols Canyon, whose recent work has clearly convinced trainer Willie Mullins to let him take his chance despite a largely indifferent season.

Mullins spoke of “changing a few things at home” to try to spark a revival in this horse so his participation should be judged significant. I doubt Nichols Canyon’s stamina for the task, exacerbated by his tendency to adjust right at his hurdles, however.

Snow Falcon isn’t a forlorn hope – he was conceding weight when beaten by Shaneshill at Gowran last time and was still going well when falling three out against Unowhatimeanharry in the Long Distance Hurdle. But that habit of dragging his back legs through his hurdles is too often in evidence.

It would have been more encouraging for 2014 Champion Hurdle hero Jezki’s claims had he built on his comeback success at Gowran last time but he would have hated the heavy ground. He should probably stay this trip, though he beat suspect stayers over three miles at Punchestown two Aprils ago.

This stiff finish doesn’t suit Zarkandar, whose success last time you suspect was merely a final hurrah.

Selections:

Vroum Vroum Mag: advised 02/02/17 at 7/1 NRNB each way [likely NR]

Back Ballyoptic each-way at 14/1 bpg

Trull House Stud Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle

In what will hopefully be Willie Mullins’ final move in Guess Who this week, the much-entered mare Let’s Dance confronts her stablemate Airlie Beach here and seeks to land a €50,000 bonus for her yard's staff. Both boast graded wins over geldings this season.

Airlie Beach has the superior form at two miles whereas a step up in trip was material to deriving improvement from Let’s Dance, who also finished a good fourth over this course and distance in the Triumph last year. Let’s Dance justifiably boasts the higher rating but can she reproduce that level of form at the trip? That makes her stable-companion the play at the prices.

Both the improving Coillte Lass and La Bague Au Roi will enjoy the ground and should run well, although the latter might lack a touch of speed. That concern applies to the likeable Barra also. Asthuria has talent but needs to sort her jumping out.

Selection:

Back Airlie Beach to win at 3/1 bpg

 

Other races

Premier Bond has taken well to fences and has untapped stamina that the Kim Muir should bring into play. He likes a sounder surface and although he was below his best when running here over hurdles, his Catterick success says that undulations per se are not an issue.

The supposed ‘plot’ horses Mall Dini and Squouateur head this market. A step up in trip and a sounder surface will help the former, but he has been sent off the beaten favourite on his last four starts and a supposedly transformative tongue-tie was of no benefit the last twice.

The same two benefits will also help Squouateur, who was staying on when seventh in last year’s Martin Pipe, and looked an eye-catching long-term handicap chase prospect at the start of the season. However, his jumping has become suspect.

Selection: Back Premier Bond each-way at 14/1

Prices correct at time of publication - 1500 on 15/03/17