Lydia Hislop rates each horse's chance in the Grand National, from takeaway merchants to road runners, and comes up with a 1-2-3-4-5-6 for the Aintree spectacular.
2018 Randox Health Grand National: A Pinsticker’s Guide
Ratings:
- 5 stars – I don’t know what I did with my life before I started running
- 4 stars – I’d describe my cost-per-gym-session ratio as ‘a bargain’
- 3 stars – I can take the stairs for two floors and still speak
- 2 stars – I ran ten metres for the bus on Monday. Felt sick for two hours
- 1 star – I receive the majority my Christmas cards from local takeaways
BLAKLION: 5 stars
Cruised through last year’s National, a tad too unfettered, until interference at the second last accelerated his surrender to stronger stayers. Better than ever this season: in particular, a nine-length Becher Chase saunter. Jumped with uncharacteristic caution in Haydock’s quagmire last time but since had a breathing operation. Forgive that blip and he has strong claims.
ANIBALE FLY: 5 stars
Arrives from a career-high third in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, albeit never getting remotely involved with the two principals. Advantageously weighted on that form. Generally much improved this season. Totally unexposed as a stayer. Prone to the odd mistake. Versatile regarding ground. Very interesting.
THE LAST SAMURAI: 3 stars
Second in the National two years ago but listless when only 16th last year. In good heart lately: chasing home Blaklion at a respectful distance in the Becher, holding his own in graded company and most recently third in the Cheltenham Festival’s Cross Country event, a highly creditable first spin over such fences. Expect a worthy showing. Wears first-time tongue-tie.
VALSEUR LIDO: 1 star
Triple Grade One-winning chaser but has been unable to recover his best form since missing a year due to injury. Regressed with each start this season albeit highly tried. Evidently well handicapped on his best form. Doubtful whether racing over nine furlongs further than before will relight his fire.
TOTAL RECALL: 3 stars
Transformed since joining Willie Mullins this season, winning three times over fences and hurdles – including the Ladbrokes Trophy. Earned a last-minute place in his trainer’s Cheltenham Gold Cup squad but had already felt the turn of the screw when crumpling at the third last. Not the ideal prep for a horse targeted at this race all season. Unexposed as a stayer.
ALPHA DES OBEAUX: 2 stars
Chief bridesmaid to Thistlecrack during that horse’s pomp as a staying hurdler but never reached the same heights over fences. It’s unlikely to happen now. Has potential for marathon trips but too high-mettled to enjoy the pre-race razzmatazz and a shade delicate these days. Prefers a sound surface. Tongue-tie removed but cheekpieces remain.
PERFECT CANDIDATE: 1 star
Back to his doughty best when scoring at Cheltenham last November but nothing like as good in two starts since, albeit unsuited by a standing start at Sandown and too highly tried last time. Raced prominently until weakening six out in last year’s National, soon pulling up. Hard to envisage better. Visor applied again.
SHANTOU FLYER: 4 stars
Career-best second last time out in the Festival’s Ultima Handicap – and he might have won bar for fluffing the last fence. Probably already struggling when hampered at the 18th in last year’s National, ultimately pulled up. Gets the testing ground he needs this year. Unexposed at marathon trips. Only lacks an enlivening headgear switch.
TENOR NIVERNAIS: 1 star
Never got involved when finishing 17th in last year’s National yet was also in better form going into that race. Out of sorts this season. Best form remains when racing right-handed but even Ascot didn’t spark a revival last time out. Gets his required testing ground. Unproven at marathon trips.
CARLINGFORD LOUGH: 4 stars
Five-times Grade One winner, twice triumphing in the Irish Hennessy. Now a veteran and distinctly short of his peak this season. Has dropped in the weights, however. On a flat track that will suit and over an unknown trip that promises to, he’s overpriced.
TIGER ROLL: 3 stars
Triple Cheltenham Festival winner after adding last month’s Cross-Country to his previous 2017 NH Chase and 2014 Triumph Hurdle successes. “A little rat of a thing” according to owner Michael O’Leary but often makes up with heart what he lacks in hands. Unexposed at four miles and beyond. Versatile ground-wise. Needs not to take an early dislike to the task.
REGAL ENCORE: 2 stars
Bestowed the Grand National with the favour of enjoying himself this time last year, staying on for eighth without getting truly involved. No guarantee he’ll be up for it again in 2018. Very capable staying chaser when in the mood, posting a career high at Ascot last time. Otherwise prone to error and bouts of disengagement.
VIEUX LION ROUGE: 3 stars
A regular feature over these fences, out to make it third time lucky in the National. Briefly threatened before the penultimate flight last year, plugging on for sixth. Suspicion is this trip stretches him. Ran dully behind Blaklion in December’s Becher Chase, perhaps due to heavy ground. Better behind Regal Encore last time. Worthy but opposable. Cheekpieces reapplied.
CHASE THE SPUD: 3 stars
Likeable mud-loving thorough stayer. Won last season’s Midlands Grand National and improved again when winning at Haydock on his seasonal debut in November. Has gone missing since, however: pulling up in both the Welsh Grand National and Eider Chase. May be a known known to the handicapper.
WARRIORS TALE: 3 stars
Improving chaser, owned by Trevor Hemmings – one of the National’s biggest fans, having won the race twice before with Many Clouds in 2015 and Ballabriggs in 2011. Unexposed or unproven as a stayer, depending on your point of view. Well treated at the weights. May not want it too testing. Not dismissed.
SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT: 2 stars
Zestful chaser who had to run last month in order to qualify for this race, having been previously sidelined since last March. Respectable return, given extreme weather affected his homework. Likely to come on for that run. But four miles stretched when third in the 2016 Scottish Grand National. Must prove he’s even as good as that nowadays.
GAS LINE BOY: 3 stars
Fell at the first in the 2015 National but had just moved smoothly into contention at the second last when knocked sideways by Cause Of Causes 12 months ago. Since won the Grand Sefton over a short course of these fences. Well up to snuff at Sandown last time but no longer advantageously handicapped.
THE DUTCHMAN: 3 stars
Improved on his third start since joining Colin Tizzard this season when winning the Grade Two Peter Marsh Chase in January. Sank into Haydock’s quagmire last time out – or else hadn’t quite recovered from his previous exertions. Untried at extreme distances. First attempt at the National fences.
PLEASANT COMPANY: 3 stars
Travelled well in last year’s National until stumbling badly second time around at Valentine’s Brook (fence 25) and then having nothing more to give from the second last. He arrived in far better form last year, though, having won the Bobbyjo Chase whereas he’s failed to make any impact on either start this term.
UCELLO CONTI: 3 stars
Not done with when blundering badly and unseating his jockey at Becher’s second time around (fence 22) last year. He also made errors and faded to a distant sixth in the 2016 renewal. His second to Anibale Fly over Christmas shows he’s still capable of a shout but he pulled up in the Thyestes last time. Erratic.
SAINT ARE: 2 stars
Officially contracted to appear over the National fences whenever possible. Second to Many Clouds in 2015 and third behind One For Arthur last year – travelling and jumping well, then markedly outpaced before rallying late. Now 12 years of age, he won’t be getting any quicker. Pulled up on both starts this term, perhaps facing unsuitable tasks. Blinkers back on.
RAZ DE MAREE: 4 stars
Veteran marathon runner. Back to his best, winning the Welsh National last time out and feasibly weighted on that form. Unseated his rider at the 17th in last year’s National after swerving to avoid a faller at Becher’s first time round (fence 6) but completed in the 2014 edition. Underfoot conditions to suit.
I JUST KNOW: 3 stars
Career-best effort when upped to 3m6f at Catterick two starts ago and may be capable of more as a stayer. Ran creditably over hurdles last time, too. Suited by testing ground. Makes his debut over these fences and likes to lead so quite a task to pull that run style off here. But no forlorn hope.
VIRGILIO: 2 stars
Suited by a flat track and well handicapped on his best form of last term but has run poorly on both starts this season. Untried at marathon trips but has stamina potential. Twice withdrawn on soft ground of late. Tackles these fences for the first time. Has undergone corrective wind surgery.
BAIE DES ILES: 4 stars
Well suited by a thorough test and back to near her best when third in the Punchestown National Trial last time – a race she won in 2017. Finished with more stamina to give when fifth in last season’s Welsh National. Very much suited by testing ground. A definite player.
MAGGIO: 3 stars
Finally gets to line up for the National as a 13-year-old. Made an error at the first fence in the 2015 Topham and never subsequently involved, albeit he completed. Scored a home run at this meeting 12 months later. Sidelined for pretty much a year prior to three below-par efforts this season. May be versatile ground-wise. Untried beyond 3m2f.
PENDRA: 3 stars
A virtual recluse these days, venturing out only twice since finishing tailed off in the National two years ago. One of those sightings was a career-best second in the 2017 Kim Muir, the race in which he performed creditably this year – showing up well until mistakes crept in and weakening markedly after the last. Corrective wind surgery since. First-time tongue-tie. Underestimated.
BUYWISE: 1 star
Fashioned a career out of collecting parts of various fences to take home with him but capable on his day, as demonstrated when winning a veterans’ chase at Sandown in January. Otherwise soundly beaten this term. Lost touch on the second circuit in the 2016 National. Probably weighted up to his current ability.
CHILDRENS LIST: 3 stars
Started his season well with a best-yet second in a small-field chase at Limerick. Pulled up after weakening quickly late on in Punchestown’s National Trial last time out, possibly finding the ground too testing. Unexposed as a stayer. Making his debut over these fences.
LORD WINDERMERE: 1 star
Much-decorated chaser, winner of the 2013 RSA Chase and an inferior edition of the Cheltenham Gold Cup a year later. Made little impact in three starts over these fences, pulling up in the 2015 National and falling in last December’s Becher. Briefly threatened before petering out for a well held seventh 12 months ago. His mark appears to overestimate his current ability.
CAPTAIN REDBEARD: 3 stars
Mud-loving chaser. Managed only a well-beaten sixth over a short course of these fences last December. Improved since, both in victory and defeat at Haydock. Kept his eye in with a best-ever hurdles performance last time to boot. Gets his ground and likes a flat track. Not entirely dismissed.
HOUBLON DES OBEAUX: 1 star
Made belated headway for tenth in last year’s National but this small-scale chaser was never truly involved. Won a veterans’ chase at Sandown in November. Has since run honourably but without honours. Retains the blinkers added at Ascot last time. Worthy but readily opposable.
BLESS THE WINGS: 2 stars
Versatile veteran. Tripped and fell in the Festival’s Cross Country event at Cheltenham last month. Never a factor in the Irish Grand National earlier this month – a race in which he’d finished second the previous two years. Completed in the 2015 Topham. First sight of these fences since. His light may be dimming.
MILANSBAR: 3 stars
Back to his best in first-time blinkers when winning Warwick’s Classic Chase in January under Bryony Frost, who’s back on board here. Since a decent runner-up for the second time in the Midlands Grand National. Adept in testing conditions. Making his debut over these fences. Place chance if finding an early rhythm.
FINAL NUDGE: 4 stars
In good and consistent form this season, including when third in the Welsh National and even better fifth at Sandown but didn’t get competitive at the Cheltenham Festival last time. Still unexposed at marathon trips. Reapplied cheekpieces likely positive. Handles testing ground.
DOUBLE ROSS: 4 stars
Good completion record over a short course of these fences, finishing fifth in both the 2014 Topham and 2015 Grand Sefton. Saddle slipped on his only attempt at the National, causing him to pull up two years ago. Good enough to be third in the 2016 Hennessy but well below that form since. Glimmer of promise when fourth in the Kim Muir last time.
ROAD TO RICHES: 1 star
Top-class chaser three seasons ago, winning two Grade Ones and not beaten that far in Coneygree’s Gold Cup. Lost his way over the past two terms, with various aids applied to spark revival. Retains a tongue-tie here. Pulled up in Punchestown’s National Trial last time. Not an obvious marathon runner.
THUNDER AND ROSES: 2 stars
Won the 2015 Irish Grand National and fourth two years later. Unfortunate to lose his rider at the ninth last year, jumping cleanly only to be body-blocked by a loose horse. In nothing like comparable form this season, failing to complete the last thrice. Reapplied cheekpieces need to wind back the years.
DELUSIONOFGRANDEUR: 1 star
Consistent performer, with evidence of some improvement of late. Capable in testing ground. Finished tailed off in the Edinburgh National two starts ago, suggesting (not for the first time) that extreme trips may be slightly beyond him. Likes to force the pace – a tough gig in this race.
WALK IN THE MILL: 3 stars
Improved for being upped to three miles this season, running particularly well when third behind Gold Present at Ascot in December. Pulled up in very heavy ground at Haydock last time. This ought not to be quite so testing in terms of underfoot conditions. Trip a total unknown, though. Not dismissed.
Scan results
1 Anibale Fly
2 Blaklion
3 Shantou Flyer
4 Baie Des Isles
5 Double Ross
6 Raz De Maree