Lydia Hislop Road to Cheltenham Gold Cup tips

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JCB Triumph Hurdle

With no rain having yet fallen during the Festival and not forecast to arrive until late on Friday, if at all, favourite Defi Du Seuil’s price is getting less appealing all the time. That said, Cheltenham’s clerk of the course Simon Claisse put down 10mm of water on Wednesday night so we’re not talking lightning ground – and haven’t been all week.

There’s no doubt Defi is the right favourite given his unbeaten run of five over hurdles – the last four of them in the UK and including a wide-margin success in the Finale – but drying conditions place an unwelcome emphasis on speed. His connections have been hesitant to assert he’ll be as effective as on softer ground.

The credentials of Leopardstown winner Mega Fortune also greatly rely on him getting some cut as that was one of the factors – along with first-time cheekpieces and a more assertive ride – that enabled him to register the best Irish juvenile form-line.

Conversely, the chances of Charli Parcs would be enhanced if the ground continues to dry. He had initially shaped as more of a Supreme type but he got outpaced in a steadily run race at Kempton last time. He was starting to rally when falling at the second last – and unfortunately counting Barry Geraghty out of the Festival – and opinions are divided on what would have happened had he stood up.

Given Master Blueyes went on to win by 11 lengths, it’s hard to be adamant Charli Parcs would have triumphed. The winner was travelling strongly at the time and moved through the race more smoothly. However it could be that a flatter track suits that horse best, albeit he too will be fully effective on this going. The ground will be a negative for Evening Hush, though.

Clearly it’s not ideal that Charli Parcs has taken a tumble immediately prior to tackling the Festival but it’s noteworthy that Henderson hasn’t flinched from aiming him here and has always been certain that he is the yard’s Triumph hope. Given stablemate Divin Bere ran Flying Tiger so close under top-weight in the Fred Winter on Wednesday, that line of thinking appears valid.

The chances of another of JP Mcmanus’s candidates, Landofhopeandglory, also rely on quick going because otherwise his peers have simply superseded him. I suspect the latter is the case.

One of those peers is Bapaume whose improving profile and possible ground versatility suggest he’s a place player. Stablemate Dandy Mag is a half-brother to Vroum Vroum Mag and lacks experience but he’s open to plenty of improvement and should enjoy the ground.

The interference Ex Patriot caused to Dinaria Des Obeaux probably did cost her the race at Fairyhouse, so the Irish stewards were correct to reverse the placings when they met at Fairyhouse. This stiffer test will help the mare.

Solder In Action’s chances rely too heavily on his Flat rating and latest win in a one-sided Doncaster affair. Doughty Coeur De Lion could outrun his odds and even Landin is not without talent, although this is flying far higher than I’d envisaged. I found UK debutant Magie Du Ma impossible to assess with any confidence, frankly.

Selection:

Back Charli Parcs at 4/1 bpg

Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle

The late decision to switch West Approach to the Stayers’ Hurdle means I’m no longer kicking myself for not playing at bigger odds before NRNB kicked in… But it does remove one of the more solid players from a race that tends to require a hardy perennial rather than a lightly raced flash-pants.

Wholestone undoubtedly falls into the former category and his jumping does seem to have got better but the low sun meant there were fewer hurdles to negotiate last time and quicker ground might expose old habits.

The hugely experienced Penhill has a similarly suitable profile, this being his eighth start and having had 18 previous outings on the Flat. He’s unexposed at the trip but I wonder whether he’ll hang in there when things get tough.

It would be wrong to accuse Death Duty of being a flash-pants. This nimble-jumping horse has got enough experience but he’s stepping up in trip for the first time (albeit he’s bred for it) and is unproven on a sounder surface. His form, good though it is, doesn’t entitle him to be quite so short.

Improving Monalee finished almost four lengths behind him at Navan last December but has already improved for a step up to this trip, could improve further in the prevailing conditions and is a solid each-way prospect for the yard that saddled the super Champion Chase winner Special Tiara.

Death Duty would have beaten Augusta Kate anyway when they met at Naas in January over 2m4f and she fell at the last, having wanted to hang right when asked to challenge. (To some extent it’s a shame stablemate and this column’s 33/1 shoot Kemboy didn’t run here rather than in Wednesday’s Neptune because he got outpaced there, but it’s probably better for his long-term progress that such an inexperienced horse doesn’t take part in this slog.)

The World’s End impressed when winning at Haydock, thumping a horse that had previously run the improving Constantine Bay close at Doncaster. If he’s tough enough at this stage of his career – and he has at least had four hurdle starts – then he’ll be a major player.

Outsiders worth noting are Tommy Rapper, who ran well against Neptune third Messire Des Obeaux at Huntingdon but needs to brush up his jumping, and Elegant Escape, who wouldn’t have handled soft ground last time and shaped as if needing further in the Challow.

Any Drama’s Market Rasen success in February merits him consideration but the lack of rain is a concern – as it is for the hugely likeable Ami Desbois.

Selections:

Kemboy: already advised 02/02/17 at 33/1 each way [NR: switched to Neptune]

West Approach: advised 08/03/17 6/1 win NRNB [NR: switched to Stayers’ Hurdle]

Back The World’s End each-way at 10/1 bpg

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Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup

As one racing philosopher regularly observes, there will be No Hiding Place in this year’s Gold Cup. It will be strongly run from the outset courtesy of Smad Place, Bristol De Mai and Native River and then the pace will be turned up to eleven from around four out.

The likes of Sizing John and Outlander are going to need to stay. The latter might well do, having won the Lexus (albeit a steadily run version) but there must be doubts about the former, whose Irish Gold Cup success owed much to its sedate pace and his turn of foot.

More Of That has divided opinion. When he unseated Mark Walsh at the last behind Sizing John, many believed he would have played a part in the finish. It was certainly his best effort since his early novice-chasing days but I’m not convinced he’d have made an impact. He needs to prove a hard-run 3m2f is completely up his street also but his connections’ confidence is notable.

Ruby Walsh will want to bring Djakadam’s stamina into play from some way out. The Fellow provides a comforting precedent for those who say a horse twice beaten in a Gold Cup can’t win it – and the 1994 hero was also fourth on his third attempt for good measure. More important is Djakadam’s maturity and the clean run Willie Mullins has enjoyed with his preparation.

This time last year, he was rushed here after falling in the Cotswold Chase in January and missing work due to requiring stitches. Analysts rightly point to how bullish connections nonetheless were beforehand and cite switching of Vautour to the Ryanair as proof of the Mullins’ camp belief in Djakadam back then. They argue the ‘clean preparation argument’ is revisionism.

However, that bombshell change of heart might also have been dictated by stamina concerns for his more vaunted stablemate and even a yard as clinical as Mullins’ can, with the Festival looming, persuade themselves their horse is thriving. It is a fact Djakadam had suffered a setback and missed some work – and that can count for lengths in any Festival race, let alone a Gold Cup.

My live-stalker feeling on that day was the spark I’d expected was lacking. I’ve watched the race again (again, again) more recently and it struck me that he actually ran a whole lot better than I’d recalled. And there is no Don Cossack in this year’s edition. I’m as sure as I was four months ago that he’ll win.

If you fancy Cue Card, you’re hanging your hat on last term’s form including when still travelling well as he checked out at the third last in this race – and his clock-supported Betfair Chase romp. His authoritative Ascot success has far less substance but it was better than his King George trouncing by stable companion Thistlecrack, when ridden to the winner’s tune and returning home with a problem. I don’t think stamina is an issue but age might be.

Until proven otherwise, I’m wary of Native River on an undulating track. He’s undoubtedly improved this season but still moved better at flat Newbury than he did at Chepstow. I can’t forget how he was being urged along from as early as the sixth fence in last year’s NH Chase.

Champagne West is another who’ll be trying to force the pace, for as long as his jumping will allow him. Minella Rocco is another horse whose best form could get him involved but whose jumping frailties make him vulnerable. He does have the services of Noel Fehily and he at least is surefooted. Trainer Jonjo O’Neill has opted for cheekpieces rather than first-time hazard lights.

The likeliest of the big-priced horses to out-run his odds is Irish Cavalier, for whom soft ground would have been anathema on his last three starts. He was held up too far off the pace to get involved in this race last year.

Selection:

Djakadam: already advised 15/11/16 at 12/1 each way

Other races

When North Hill Harvey was raised just 8lbs for his Greatwood success, his trainer Dan Skelton recalibrated to target the County Hurdle instead of the Champion. He might have hit the frame in the Supreme last year – strong form, as has been proven thrice over this week – but for getting the second last all wrong. It’s not an original tip but I like him.

I’m keen on Willie Mullins' Battleford in the Martin Pipe. He ran well against solid Albert Bartlett hopeful Monalee when clearly in need of a left-handed track at Clonmel last time. It was a similar story when filling the same slot behind The Storyteller at Thurles the time before. As last year’s narrow Bumper runner-up, he’s also proven at the track.

In the Grand Annual, I’m keen on Velvet Maker to provide a second Festival winner for Barry Connell, Alan Fleming and Denis O’Regan following their Close Brothers Handicap success with Tully East.

Velvet Maker was only 12th in the same race last year but he had a bit too much use made of him in a race that turned out to be dominated by patiently ridden rivals. That was also only his third start over fences and he appears to have been laid out for this.

Selections:

Back North Hill Harvey for the County Hurdle each-way at 7/1 bpg

Back Battleford for the Martin Pipe each-way at 8/1 bpg

Back Velvet Maker for the Grand Annual each-way at 14/1 bpg