Today's tips: Racing preview and best bets
By David Massey
09:52 · SAT September 21, 2024
Rory Delargy and David Massey look ahead to today's racing and they've got three selections on the card at Ayr.
Racing betting tips: Saturday September 21
0.5pts e.w Rock Opera in the 2.25 Ayr at 16/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 Sky Bet, min 14/1)
0.5pts e.w Perfect Part in the 3.00 Ayr at 18/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4, General, min 14/1)
0.5pts e.w Orazio in the 3.35 Ayr at 14/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6 Bet365, min 12/1)
0.5pts e.w Captain Pickles in the 2.30 Chester at 20/1 (min 18/1)
"Sneaks in here off a good mark, she's a wild price" - Weekend Preview: Ayr Gold Cup & Mill Reef
1.15 Ayr
We took a look at the consistent Apiarist here, as his form this summer entitles him to plenty of respect, but his hold-up style may not be suited to Ayr, and we're happy to wait for another day to row in with him.
We were very keen on Mirsky at a big price at York last time out and he duly ran his best race for David O'Meara, looking the likely winner at the furlong pole but finding Thunder Run in no mood to be passed. All the same, a terrific effort and one that he achieved by racing near the pace, which we feel will be advantageous here.
The handicapper has raised him a couple of pounds and Danny Tudhope, taking over from Mark Winn in the saddle essentially means he's 5lb higher today, but this is a less competitive event than the York one, and he can come out on top this time.
2.25 Ayr
Finally ROCK OPERA gets a bit of luck with the draw and as long as he can avoid another slow start, which was his undoing in the Great St Wilfrid at Ripon last time out, looks the each-way suggestion for the Silver Cup.
After catching the eye at York back in July, when he made all his ground up on the unfavoured stands side of the track, he again fared poorly with the draw at York a fortnight later, but it didn't stop him hitting the frame. He again ran with great credit in a Racing League handicap at Windsor on next start, doing best of those held up off the pace to finish a close fourth. The draw gods have finally smiled upon him though , bestowing him with stall 4 which, on recent historical evidence in the race, looks an ideal place to work from. He can finally repay our faith in him.
3.00 Ayr
Rory was quite taken with the step forward PERFECT PART took in the Lowther last month and she looks overpriced to continue that progression today.
She's just a very likeable filly that tries hard and doesn't panic when she gets outpaced, as was the case at York early on, but she put her head down and ran all the way to the line to be beaten 3 1/2 lengths by Celandine. She will get a bit further in time but should get this run to suit today, and can get involved in the finish.
3:35 Ayr
It looked, on the evidence of yesterday, that a low draw was again something of a necessity for the big-field handicaps at Ayr today and that, of course, brings Rohaan into the equation.
Beaten under two lengths in this from an 8lb higher mark last season, and that from arguably the worst of the draw, he’s pulled stall 8 out the bag this time and has shaped better than the result on both his last couple of runs, a slow pace against him at Ascot last time. That won’t happen here, and granted luck in running, should go close.
His price looks the right one, though, whereas we think ORAZIO looks a couple of points too big, and we’ll make him the bet.
He went off one of the favourites for this last year but again, was scuppered by a high draw, although he wasn’t beaten all that far at the death. His fast-finishing Wokingham third shows he still has what it takes at this level to win one of these when it drops right, and you can forgive a poor effort last time as he simply didn’t stay 7f. As with Rohaan, he’s fared better with the draw this time, with stall 3 ideal, and although he can blow out without warning, we feel conditions are ideal today, and is worth a bet.
At a whopping price we gave old Pointers friend Tinto a look too; he’s probably blown his chances of winning by picking up a penalty for winning a lesser race at Thirsk last time, but he can operate around Ayr, as demonstrated by his second in the Silver Cup last year, and from stall 5, it isn't impossible he could outrun his huge odds.
2.05 Newbury
Some rain would be welcome for Ithaca's Arrow (and, hurrah!) but good ground would be fine regardless, and Dominic Ffrench Davis's progressive 4yo can win again.
Useful over hurdles, he's maintained that form back on the Flat and after just getting touched off at Goodwood last month, made no mistakes at Chester a week ago, pulling well clear of his opponents the further he went. This is undoubtedly a tougher contest but he's at the top of his game right now, and this step back up in trip can only be a positive to his chances.
The 16s that was around yesterday was value; he’s shortened up markedly now the rain has come, and he’s probably somewhere near his bottom price as we go to press, but we do think he’s a strong selection.
2.40 Newbury
A tough contest in which there's probably not a bet, but a mention for Mustazeed is necessary given his course form here, including his second here yesterday, as the further rain that’s fallen is very much in his favour. He's developed a few ideas of his own as he gets older but is still capable of a good run when it all comes together, as was the case at Ascot in July when a solid second to Fantasy Believer, and he just needed a few more strides yesterday and he’d have forced his head in front. This is tough race for him to be tackling and the quick turnaround would be a new question, but he'd be worth a second look if he took his chance.
3.15 Newbury
Purely on the figures Star Anthem has a bit to find, but it's not hard to think that had he raced more this season, having not been seen since his staying-on 2l eighth in the Coventry back in June that he'd be somewhere among the likes of Shadow Of Light and Symbol Of Strength on the ratings. Indeed, form lines through Cool Hoof Luke give him a similar chance to that pair today, and yet were getting a considerable bigger price about his chances.
Clive Cox has won this with Harry Angel and Wings Of War in the past decade, and it might be of some relevance that he brings Star Anthem back after a break for a race the yard have done well in previously.
2.30 Chester
CAPTAN PICKLES has, on the face of it, been disappointing on his last two starts but the drop back to 5f was all against him last time and this 7f looks a much more suitable trip for him to try.
There was plenty to take from his first two starts and his fourth to Big Cyril on his debut at Ayr couldn't have worked out much better, with second home Uncle Don impressive when beating Big Mojo at Beverley next time and third Eve's Boy taking a good novice event at Ayr on Thursday. He is worth another chance to show he can get back on track.
Preview posted at 0950 BST 21/09/24
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