Today's tips: Racing preview and best bets
By Rory Delargy
Horse Racing
Mon November 25, 2024 · 3h ago
Our star daily duo of Rory Delargy and David Massey look ahead to Monday's racing.
Racing Betting Tips: Monday November 25
1pt win Es Perfecto in 3.10 Kempton at 100/30 (Ladbrokes, bet365) - minimum 3/1
2.50 Ludlow
Backing Kim Bailey’s handicap chasers returning from a break in the autumn is as solid a system as there is in jumps racing with the exception of following a similar approach with Venetia Williams, and Bailey has a couple of such horses who should take the world of beating on Monday.
The bottom line is that since 2018/19, backing all of Bailey’s runners in handicap chases who have been off the track for 100 days or more has produced 99 bets and a remarkable 24 winners for a profit of £520 to £10 stake.
The first of Bailey’s two runners who fit the bill for backers is Mr Grey Sky, who encounters ideal conditions. The 10-year-old won on his first two starts last season and has dropped back to that last winning mark after a couple of defeats. He is at his best when dictating, and has an obvious chance of doing so here, with only Keep Running likely to go forward with him.
It’s very hard to get away with from his claims in a race which is considerably less competitive than the handicap ceiling would suggest, with Mr Grey Sky topweight with a rating of 120 and four of his rivals are coming off heavy defeats and the race is further weakened by the defection of Dr T J Eckleburg who won a slog in the mud at Haydock on Saturday, but would have faced a tougher task under the 7lb penalty.
It’s a shame he’s come out as it means that Mr Grey Sky, who was a generous 3/1 overnight, is now a 6/4 chance, and we generally don’t stray so short with our recommendations.
3.10 Kempton
Bailey is again represented by the topweight in this contest, with The Edgar Wallace the mount of stable jockey of Tom Bellamy who may have had the choice between the two mounts, although his decision to go to Kempton rather than Ludlow may simply be because Bailey has three runners here and only two at the Shropshire venue.
The Edgar Wallace also has in common with Mr Grey Sky the fact that he’s the most likely front runner in a small field where the ability to dictate could be a big advantage and he also won his first two starts last season before the handicapper had his say. He’s still 5lb above his last winning mark, but ran very well to be a close second to Cheddleton at Newcastle in February (pair well clear) from 1lb higher and his current mark looks fair on balance.
There is one better handicapped and also capable of going well fresh here, however, and The Edgar Wallace may have to play second fiddle to ES PERFECTO, who was twice placed behind Ginny’s Destiny off higher marks in his first season over fences but can resume off a lower mark than for either of those efforts despite running only one poor race last term, that coming on his final start at Sandown.
As well as his two runs behind Ginny’s Destiny at Cheltenham, Es Perfecto also caught the eye in a televised novices’ handicap chaser here on Boxing Day, finishing best for third behind Blow Your Wad having been given a lot to do. He can make amends with Alan King’s horses tending to be well tuned up in the autumn.
Published at 0928 GMT 25/11/24
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