Live Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe meeting blog from ParisLongchamp: Video replays, reaction, tips, bookmaker offers and more
Alpinista won the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe for Sir Mark Prescott and Luke Morris at ParisLongchamp. Recap the action.
All times BST, please refresh for updates
That's all folks
1600: I'm away to help the team on the desk who have plenty of reaction to write up over the next couple of hours so don't go too far.
Please keep your eyes on the site for the race reports, reaction and Ben Linfoot's analysis of the key events; it will be a 'must read'.
Thank you for your company over the weekend, I hope you've had a good one. Cheerio.
Prix de l'Opera Longines
1548: They are on their way to post for the Prix de l'Opera which will be the last race on the blog.
We will be providing reports as soon as possible on the Abbaye and Foret that follow that with all hands on deck.
Teddy Grimthorpe is being interviewed and is hopeful Nashwa will handle the ground but offers the usual caveat that 'it's not a given'. I think she wins and so does the market which has her at 2/1, a fair bit shorter than she was this morning. There's money for Above The Curve who is 4/1, the same price as La Parisienne.
We're at post time and will be underway in a minute or two.
The principals aren't very well drawn here so that is a negative. I'm interested in My Astra as an each-way player at 15/2; her second to La Petite Coco in June reads well enough and I presume she's been waiting for this sort of ground ever since.
Tuesday has been rejected by Ryan Moore and is out at 12/1. Not many left to load. They're underway. Doyle takes Nashwa forwards and she may even get across to the lead. I don't think she's used up too much energy in getting there. Tuesday gives chase but is trapped wide. A few in behind seem keen enough so hopefully Doyle is controlling this race.
Into the straight. The jockeys getting serious and Nashwa is a length up but hasn't shaken Tuesday off. The closers are coming. She's been mugged by Place Du Carrousel.
A 66/1 winner for Fabre and Barzalona.
A close third was Above The Curve with My Astra fourth. Heartbreak for Doyle and Nashwa but delight for Fabre and the bookmakers.
Reaction to the Arc
1526: Advertisements give us all the chance to catch a breath but we should have more reaction over the coming minutes before attention turns to the Opera and Nashwa.
You've got to enjoy the reaction from Sir Mark's travelling head lass (below) although it's a shame the tweet doesn't carry the audio that was, erm, audible when they showed the clip on the telly. I've replaced that tweet with another version of the same.
We're going to be short of reaction for the time being as coverage has ended, to my surprise, on ITV Racing and Sky Sports Racing have had to switch their cameras to the 1528 from Uttoxeter. They should be heading back to Paris fairly soon though as there are only three to jump and will hopefully have all the interviews lined up.
The favourite has obliged in Staffordshire but there the similarities end.
I never picked Luxembourg up but he was seventh, one spot in front of Broome, and I wonder if he was feeling the effects of the hard work that he put in ahead of Leopardstown.
Sky are back at Paris after a couple of necessary diversions, here's Morris: "Things went lovely, they've gone a good strong gallop up front and she ran very nice and smooth. She's a remarkable filly, whatever the ground, she's so versatile and so tough.
"From stall 6 it made life a lot easier, I got a lovely smooth trip into the race and I couldn't believe how well she was travelling, I kept taking her back. She towed me to two out in front and was very tough when I needed her. It's the pinnacle of my career and an unbelievably special day.
"Sir Mark's had an unbelievable effect on my career, I joined him when I was only 22, and I'm so lucky and so thrilled to ride for him."
Vadeni's trainer Jean-Claude Rouget was one of the first to congratulate Prescott apparently, putting an arm around his neck; that's a nice touch having just seen your runner chinned in the season's biggest race.
Disappointingly Sir Mark's reaction (above) was rather more restrained than that of Annabel Willis (below).
It's a great day
1515: "It's a great day," says Sir Mark Prescott.
"It caught me out really (the emotion of it), just a marvellous day."
I couldn't believe how well Alpinista was travelling when she took up the running.
Watching the replay I think Westover was sixth home for those betting each-way with Sky Bet but that is unofficial.
Alpinista is just making her way back into the winner's enclosure and Morris throws his whip and goggles to young racing fans who are running alongside (on the other side of the rails); those are mementoes that will stay with them.
Kelly catches up with Sir Mark on Sky Sports Racing: "It's just a wonderful change to have one who can really go. She's been perfect. It's just gone perfectly."
Morris has won two Abbayes and now an Arc, that's a pretty fine return for a jockey who wouldn't make many people's top tens of those currently riding.
Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
1504: The runners have paraded in front of the stands and are making their way to post.
Mulrennan says 'you wouldn't look past Onesto for an each-way bet' which I thoroughly concur with. He's a couple of points shorter at 9/1 than he was this morning. Kieran Shoemark is in the ITV Racing studio and believes that Rob Hornby will be happy enough with the way Westover has gone to the start.
O'Brien is on Sky Sports Racing and says of Luxembourg 'physically and mentally we think he's ready for a hard race today'.
They've started to load, it's time to sit back and enjoy one of the great spectacles of the year.
Titleholder has the early lead. Mishriff and Grand Glory are the last two. Alpinista and Westover share fifth, both well placed. Torquator Tasso is further back and trapped wide, they are quite well strung out. Vadeni needs room trapped against the rail as is Onesto. Alpinista into third in the straight and she seems to be going well, Vadeni follows her through and here comes Frankie.
Alpinista got the perfect ride from Morris and the perfect trip round. That was brilliant.
Vadeni closed right up near the line for second with Torquator Tasso third and connections will be bemoaning their draw. Al Hakeem was fourth with Grand Glory running a blinder in fifth.
Can Alpinista hit the heights?
1453: The grey mare is just 7/2 with some firms and there's plenty of support for Sir Mark Prescott's runner as the jockeys emerge from the weighing room.
She's good, it goes without saying, but she hasn't really captured my imagination as the television pictures show it chucking it down in Paris. The jockeys might prefer that their attendants were carrying brollies rather than placards showing their name, ride and colours.
Just for a bit of fun, here's my Arc 1-6: Vadeni, Onesto, Luxembourg, Alpinista, Bubble Gift, Torquator Tasso
I was talking to Ben Linfoot this morning and he was telling me he was far from convinced by the Irish Champion Stakes form and the market has sided with his selection (and you can listen to the case he makes on a tweet posted earlier in the blog), Alpinista.
Chapman has just pointed out that no winner has won the Arc on their first attempt over a mile and a half since 1990 and 25 have tried and failed. That's bad news for Vadeni but then again, we're due one aren't we?
Sir Mark Prescott is with Persad and repeating some of the same lines that he rolled out on Sky Sports Racing a while back.
"I would be disappointed if I didn't look like winning with a furlong to run but something a bit stronger and a bit bigger might just get through it better," he says.
When asked about the biggest danger just prior to that, he replied 'anything that can plough through the ground'. The testing conditions aren't deemed to be in Alpinista's favour. Do you want to be on at 7/2?!
Go West young man
1444: Westover's trainer Ralph Beckett is the latest to be interrogated by Persad.
"I think it's (the ground) in pretty good shape, it's fresh ground and it's going to be slow but I'm sure it will be fine for him," he said.
"It's great that he's got here for a start after Ascot, we're here and in good shape so looking forward to it. He's got to have a chance if the same horse shows up (as at the Irish Derby) and we're right about him handling this ground. We'll work our way into the race and work it out from there.
"His work at home has been good and he's had an away day. He's travelled over here well and I think we're in good shape."
Westover is currently around 10/1 in a market which appears to have a touch of the Grand Nationals about it with most of the leading contenders tightening up a little bit. That's with the exception of Luxembourg who has been deposed at the top of the betting by Alpinista although he is still 9/2, a price that he was available at as favourite this morning.
The good news is that some of the outsiders have been pushed out again to balance the books and there is some 40s about Bubble Gift although not with any firms paying down to fifth (or sixth, Sky Bet).
Good vibes
1437: There's a line in the above preview which reads:
"But jockey Kazuo Yokoyama sounded like a man content with his lot after he exercised Titleholder at Chantilly on Wednesday. He said the horse felt good on the ‘very soft’ strip of turf and ‘didn’t have any problems going through it.’ "
Titleholder is not the only Japanese challenger of course and you can read more about all of them on our pages as well as in the article above while Kevin Blake made a case for Do Deuce on one of the Betfair Racing tweets that I posted this morning.
Not that many Europeans make the reverse trip although Broome and Grand Glory did so last year, contesting the Japan Cup in November and that race closes in a couple of days' time.
Broome could only finish eleventh behind the brilliant Contrail in Tokyo but Grand Glory ran well in fifth. Neither runner is expected to trouble the principals this afternoon although it's worth remembering that Grand Glory was only beaten in a photo in the Prix de l'Opera at last year's Arc meeting.
She still has stamina to prove over this trip though.
Dreams can come true
1419: The Japanese attempts to win the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe have certainly captured my imagination and they have gone agonisingly close in the past.
El Condor Pasa was famously beaten by Montjeu in 1999 while Deep Impact, whose significant presence is still being felt on racecourses around the world thanks to his progeny, finished a close third to Rail Link in 2006 before being disqualified.
I was all over Orfevre who looked all over the winner in 2012 but Soumillon may well have hit the front too soon on the quirky individual who was no match for the brilliant Treve 12 months later; there was no disgrace in that.
Titleholder adds a welcome layer of intrigue to this compelling race and I hope he posts a big performance. The ground is the big unknown but, clutching at straws, I note that his dam-sire is Motivator and we all know that a lot of Motivator's progeny enjoy it when the mud is flying.
I did see one comment yesterday (about Verry Elleegant) that ParisLongchamp is not the easiest course to ride for those without experience of it and it will be a big test for Kazuo Yokoyama who is the latest in a family dynasty of top-class jockeys.
Connections are leaving no stone unturned in their bid for the Arc and Yokoyama did fly into Paris for just 24 hours last month in order to familiarise himself with the track.
Jim Crowley has just won the Arabian World Cup about 2/1 favourite Lady Princess (did she win at Glorious Goodwood?) to earn a big payday. What a career Crowley has had since switching his attention to the flat from the sticks.
Japan's Title?
1410: Persad has spoken, with the help of a translator, to Toru Kurita, trainer of Titleholder: "We had a great trip to get here and it seems like he has really settled in well. We are very happy to be here. He actually performed really well on the soft ground in Japan but we don't know how he will act on it in France.
"Tactics-wise, we don't have to lead, we just have to get into a good rhythm. It's not necessary to lead."
Persad is keeping busy and has collared Frankie Dettori: "This is my 31st Arc so I know exactly what can happen and you just have to be ready for it. My main priority is to get a clean break so you don't have to go too wide round the first turn.
"His form is there for everybody to see, the draw in 18 doesn't help but I wouldn't swop him for anything else.
"Not just the crowd but as a professional it doesn't get any better than this. You're in the room with jockeys from all over the world and you get a sense of the atmosphere and the buzz."
While Persad was interviewing Dettori, Kelly was talking to Christopher Head on the other channel and you can watch that interview via the tweet above.
Between now and the Arc is the Qatar Arabian World Cup and this Group One, I think I heard someone say earlier, is the most valuable race on the card. It's not a race I looked at last night though.
Rose blossoms
1400: Hindsight suggests that Tigrais' presence in the opener against the colts was indeed a pointer to the chance of Blue Rose Cen in the Boussac.
The fillies' Group One has been won by some very smart performers who have gone on to record greater feats at three and hopes will be high that Blue Rose Cen can follow in their steps after that very convincing display. She's a daughter of Churchill who is also represented on this Arc day card by Vadeni in the feature.
It doesn't look terribly easy to make up ground but Aspen Grove did make up a number of lengths in finishing seventh and her run can be upgraded.
It was a first Group One winner for Christopher Head and Kelly has spoken to his recently retired father Freddie, who was understandably delighted for his son: "I'm very happy for him, he's done very well.
"She's a very good filly. We are very happy. I suppose she loved the ground to win like that. She's a very good filly and has always been very consistent."
Qatar Prix Marcel Boussac
1340: This is a Money Back race with Sky Bet and you can find a direct link and Alex Hammond's fancy on the tweet below the Lagardere post.
This has an open look to it but Habana would be an each-way play for me at 6/1. I touched on her earlier this morning but it looks significant to me that Wohler is prepared to have a crack at this prize.
Kelina brings a big reputation to the races and there's some money around for Blue Rose Cen whose trainer, Christopher Head, ran Tigrais against the boys in the opener. Those three are the runners I'm concentrating on.
Fozzy Stack supplemented Aspen Grove after her Group Three success at 66/1; she had previously run no race when a long way behind Never Ending Story who also lines up after meeting some trouble in running in the Moyglare. Persad caught up with her trainer Aidan O'Brien.
"We've been very happy with her since then and have always thought this race would suit her well," he said.
"Hopefully she will run a good race. Physically she is improving and we think she is."
O'Brien expects her to be suited by this mile on soft ground. He was then asked about Arc favourite Luxembourg:
"Good, we trained him hard for the Irish Champion so we haven't trained him as hard as this but we're very happy with what he's doing. He has form with ease in the ground. Hopefully he might be able to work it out. I would have thought that he would come forward a bit for Leopardstown again, we always thought a mile and a quarter plus would help him but you're never sure of any of those things."
Wed is proving easy to back but Ardent is heading in the other direction as she bids to provide Fabre and Barzalona with a quick double. Around half the field are in the gates, not long to wait.
Kelina is quickly into stride but taken back into fourth with Ardent in second. Shalromy leads with Blue Rose Cen third. Habana has been short of room according to the commentator, they head for home. Blue Rose Cen leads and is three clear, she's running on strongly and looks smart, the rest finish in a heap.
Blue Rose Cen was returned at 9/2 under Aurelien Lemaitre.
Gan Teorainn was second at 40/1 with Never Ending Story third but it was Blue Rose Cen first and the rest nowhere.
More from Morris
1338: Persad caught up with Alpinista's jockey, Luke Morris, who told him:
"I caught up with a few of the lads who rode in the first and they felt the ground wasn't as bad as expected.
"Ryan Moore said it's nowhere near as bad as last year and obviously there's a fresh strip down on the inside.
"I've got huge confidence in the filly and I'm sure she'll run a big race; her whole year has been campaigned around here and I'm very hopeful.
"As Sir Mark said, every run she has had she has got a little bit better and I'm hoping that we haven't got to the bottom of her yet because she probably does have to improve again a little bit to win."
Open renewal
1326: There's an open renewal of the Qatar Prix Marcel Boussac next as they're betting 4/1 the field.
It's raining again at ParisLongchamp which is bad news for those there. There will be some reaction to the first race upcoming shortly.
Fabre and Barzalona are represented by Ardent in the Boussac and she bumped into Kelina on debut and was sent off the 27/10 favourite; she was beaten four and a half lengths into third but got the job done next time and it wouldn't be the biggest surprise to see her close the gap.
Ardent is a general 9/1 chance with Kelina at 4s.
There are pictures of the presentations at the moment and there was a small smile from Fabre as he was handed a trophy, it's all in a day's work.
Here is the trainer: "We always felt that he had the ability but he failed to settle. He settled well today. He's good looking, well bred, good horse."
Fabre told Kelly that the Group One at Doncaster (I forget what name it goes by now) is an option for Belbek which would see him attempt to stretch his stamina out to a mile.
Kelly asked if the Breeders' Cup might be on the agenda but I didn't get the impression that Fabre was very keen on that option. It was a 'win and you're in' race.
Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere
1305: Martin Kelly and Laurent Barbarin are in the paddock for Sky Sports Racing and the latter likes the look of Shartash who he says is relaxed and 'like a little ball of muscle'.
Shartash won the Railway Stakes but has been found out in Group One company twice since and, for all that he may have the odd excuse, it's not a profile that makes any appeal to me at 13/8.
I'd rather lay him on the Betfair Exchange than pick one to beat him, particularly with the absence of The Antarctic taking the field down to seven runners from eight. There aren't any out and out no-hopers amongst his rivals with the longest priced of them, Belbek, a 16/1 chance.
Murtagh has spoken to Rishi Persad on ITV Racing and the tension is mounting: "It's exciting and nervous," he said.
"It's something I've dreamt about (having a runner for The Aga Khan at this meeting) and I hope everything goes well now. I've a good feeling inside. He's a horse that we thought was pretty sharp early, he's more relaxed now but seven furlongs here is a test and that is the only worry, he's got a good turn of foot so if we can get there and produce it at the furlong pole then he'll be there.
"This race was always on my mind."
Adele Mulrennan isn't convinced about Shartash as the ITV team discuss the action from their studio at Ascot (I think). The runners are circling at the start with loading just about to begin. Almost set. They're off.
Shartash settled in fifth, on the outside so with plenty of room. They fan out across the track and it's close at the head of affairs with victory going to Belbek from Gamestop and Breizh Sky.
The outsider of the field wins at 16/1 for Andre Fabre and Mikael Barzalona. They have recorded their sixth and fourth wins in the race respectively.
Chapman highlighting that Tigrais lost her race at the start, it was an incident I missed but I think he said that she ducked, presumably as the stalls opened.
The heavens have opened
1250: So says Alex Hammond on Sky Sports Racing and she asks Jason Weaver what effect that will have on the ground. It may just freshen conditions up and make it a little easier to get through as we often hear that drying ground can become tacky and holding. We shall see.
They've just shown an interview with Alpinista's trainer Sir Mark Prescott who said: "It's taken 53 years to get one here so I'm going to enjoy the day.
"I think every race she has run for the last two years she has improved a little bit so the big question is whether there is anything left. Quicker would have suited me better. They say it's good to soft and I'm going out to have a look but she will run."
He deflected all questions about how she has travelled over to Travelling Head Lass Annabel Willis and she said of the apple of her eye: "She's been very well, taken everything in her stride; she's well travelled as you know. She's got the hang of it now and is well used to it; I'm happy with how she's travelled."
They are showing pictures of the course now and it looks horrid although when they switch back to the studio it doesn't look anywhere near as bad and Martin Kelly also appears to be dry in the parade ring as he interviews Drew Fleming, CEO of the Breeders' Cup. Umbrellas are visible in the background as racegoers watch on though.
Can't see the Foret for the trees?
1238: Awful wordplay aside and the Qatar Prix de la Foret Presente par Education Above All appears to represent a good opportunity for either Kinross or Tenebrism to gain a Group One victory.
The seven furlong trip is something of a specialist distance and there aren't a huge number of top-level opportunities over seven.
Kinross was fourth behind Space Blues 12 months ago and has, arguably, been in better form this season with only a neck defeat by the re-opposing Sandrine (a heavy ground winner) denying him from completing a Group Two hat-trick. He was asked to come from some way back last year but was prominent when winning at Doncaster last time and I'd expect Frankie Dettori to have Kinross somewhere near the pace.
Irish Champions Weekend Group One winner Pearls Galore was second last year, one place in front of Entscsheiden who is back for another crack. The Japanese runner is the outsider of the field at 40/1 having not been at his best but it wouldn't be any surprise to see him return to form given his fine run last year.
More obvious claims are held by Tenebrism who gained a top flight success over this trip in the Prix Jean Prat before posting a couple of respectable efforts over a mile. The return to racing over this distance may well help her pick up the winning thread.
Queen of Longchamp
1220: I don't know if the French press will reach for 'Queen of Longchamp' headlines given their historic, fractious relationship with royalty but it would be no surprise to see it in the headlines over here if Hollie Doyle is successful aboard The Platinum Queen and, around half an hour earlier, Nashwa in the Prix de l'Opera Longines.
Nashwa has provided Doyle with some huge career highlights already, notably when beating the re-opposing La Parisienne in the Prix de Diane, and has a favourite's chance of collecting another Group One prize.
Nashwa was very good under a change of tactics when winning the Nassau at Goodwood and that proven versatility is good news for Doyle and connections as it gives them more options, or faith in those options, to play the cards as they are dealt. The Nassau is also working out ridiculously well with Fonteyn winning the Group One Sun Chariot yesterday to add to the subsequent Group One successes of second home Aristia and fifth home Dreamloper while the third, Lilac Road, was beaten a head in the Group One Vermeille.
That's not bad!
Nashwa has never raced on ground as testing as the forecast conditions but her dam handled soft conditions and is by Pivotal so I don't think there are too many worries on that score. She only narrowly beat La Parisienne in the French Oaks so doesn't have bundles in hand but I think she's a backable price at 11/4 to confirm the form.
Draw bias
1205: A low draw has been a distinct advantage in the Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp Longines which is good news for Richard Fahey and The Platinum Queen and he told his Sporting Life column that 'she really has been thriving at home'.
She is out to 7/2 and quite a few have been backed against her with the market having a decent each-way shape to it; again, a handful of layers are offering extra places including both Paddy Power and Sky Bet who pay down to fifth.
Winning stall numbers have been 5, 2, 3, 13, 2, 12, 5, 12, 7, 6 which clearly demonstrates the task facing those in double figures but they are priced accordingly and I'm tempted to give a chance to Mitbaahy from stall 15.
Three-year-olds have won five of the last six runnings - the last two-year-old to win was in 1978 but I don't know how many have tried since - and Mitbaahy has been progressing nicely for Roger Varian whose string continues in good form. He beat Paddy Power market mover Teresa Mendoza last time and she's just 13/2 whereas he can be backed at 14/1 which is, of course, down to their respective draws in part.
Mitbaahy hasn't tackled ground as bad as that forecast but he ran well with some cut in the spring and I'd be hopeful that he will handle the conditions and that he will be finishing off the race strongly enough to snatch a share of the each-way spoils at worst.
Power moves
1148: An hour ago, Paddy Power tweeted their ParisLongchamp market movers and they were as follows:
1315 Gamestop 9/1 from 12s
1350 Habana 6/1 from 13/2, Gan Teorainn 35/1 from 40s
1505 Do Deuce 28/1 from 33s, Sealiway 33/1 from 40s
1550 Above The Curve 15/4 from 4/1
1625 Teresa Mendoza 13/2 from 15/2,
1700 Tenebrism 10/3 from 7/2
Of those, I'm most interested in Habana who runs in the Marcel Boussac. The Germain-trained filly is two from two for Andreas Wohler and, apparently, was hugely impressive last time, prompting the commentator to exclaim 'wow' as she crossed the line. Wohler has handled many a top-class horse over the years and so it seems significant that he's prepared to pitch this filly into Group One company on her third start.
Kelina is just about favourite - from Wed - and she has also had just the two starts; the Frankel filly boasts a big reputation and comes into this after an easy victory in a conditions race but the second home finished well down the field next time and the fourth was beaten in a handicap.
All shook up
1134: That's the betting for the opening Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere as The Antarctic is a non-runner; he was around a 5/2 chance when taken out within the last half hour or so.
That has left Shartash as the 6/4 favourite and you can read what trainer Johnny Murtagh has to say about Shartash's chances in his Sporting Life column where he also looks ahead to the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.
I'm a little sorry that The Antarctic has been taken out as my main approach to the Lagardere was to oppose the Irish runners. The obvious two that I'd have running for me are Breizh Sky and Tigrais who were parted by just a short-head in a Group Three last time and they don't appear to have a great deal to find with Shartash.
Gamestop was third to that pair on his first start since July and it's conceivable that he could improve for that run having blown away the cobwebs. He's interesting and I haven't completely discounted the claims of Belbek who has a lot to do on the face of things but he should love the ground and there's more than enough stamina on the distaff side of his pedigree to believe that he will relish this first attempt at seven furlongs.
Tigrais is, of course, a filly taking on the colts when it may have seemed that the more natural progression for Tigrais would have been to line up in the Qatar Prix Marcel Boussac which follows on.
Her trainer, Christopher Head, has Blue Rose Cen for the mile contest. Whether he was keen to keep them apart or whether he feels Tigrais is better suited by the seven furlongs of the Lagardere I don't know but it's an angle I'm interested in for both fillies.
Extra Gift
1107: I've nothing against Alpinista and I'd be quite happy to cheer her home while it would be great for international racing if Titleholder were to win for Japan.
I can't get excited about Alpinista at 11/2 though and, as mentioned, Titleholder has never run on ground as soft as this so I find it hard to side with him accordingly.
One horse who is proven under conditions is Bubble Gift and it seems that a few punters have latched on to his claims as the appealing 66/1 prices have evaporated with 28s and 33s more commonplace. That's rather a shame as I'd probably want at least 40/1 given that I don't think he has a realistic chance of winning but I do think he has a chance of hitting the frame with extra places taken into account.
Bubble Gift was eighth last year, beaten five and a half lengths, so obviously doesn't need to improve a great deal to finish in the first five (or six with Sky Bet, see the tweet above for a direct link) and reward an each-way play. He's a consistent performer and was just a length and a half away from Alpinista in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud two starts ago before finishing second in his prep run, the Prix Foy.
Connections have added cheekpieces to his armoury and if they do eke out a pound or two of progress then he has got definite claims of finishing on the periphery of the action; I just need him to drift a little.
'Onest campaigner
1050: Onesto has rock solid each-way claims doesn't he?
He's progressed steadily through the season, winning a Group Three on his second start from the useful Agave, finishing fifth in the French Derby when appearing to lack the pace to challenge over the 10 furlong trip before appreciating the step up to 12 furlongs in the Group One Grand Prix de Paris and then pushing Luxembourg close back over 10 furlongs.
The form looks rock solid with Jockey Club winner Vadeni obviously advertising the Chantilly race while third home Modern Games has continued to perform with credit; Al Hakeem was fourth and has run just once since, beating yesterday's close Group Two second Junko over 10 furlongs at Deauville - he is no forlorn hope himself. James Ferguson's El Bodegon was second in the Classic and Onesto comfortably reversed that form in the Grand Prix de Paris once faced with that stiffer test of stamina.
It may have been forgotten by now but the beaten Grand Prix favourite was one Eldar Eldarov, last sighted winning the St Leger, while the runner-up, Simca Mile, won a Group Two on his next start.
Onesto's draw in 11 is no problem as it's more or less in midfield, besides which he has tended to be held-up, and should give Stephane Pasquier all the options that he needs. I'm not sure why he's as big a price as he is and would have him shorter than Al Hakeem, Westover and Titleholder who are all available at similar odds yet have considerably more to prove.
Va-va-voom
1028: I'm easily swayed and it's not often that I hold a dogmatic position on a race, or anything at all, and I'm certainly not dogmatic about the claims of one particular runner over another in the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.
Decent cases can be made for a number of the runners and they most definitely include Luxembourg, a horse that connections had huge hopes for at the start of the season. Aidan O'Brien and his team have handled the Camelot colt superbly since that post-Guineas setback and it was hard not to be impressed by his defeat of Onesto and Vadeni in the Irish Champion Stakes.
I'm struggling to see how that bare form entitles him to be half the price of the horses he beat though.
For sure, the step up to a mile and a half should suit Luxembourg who was long touted as a Derby contender but Onesto ran his best form over a mile and a half and didn't seem ideally suited by reverting to 10 furlongs in Ireland.
Vadeni has more to prove than that pair having never raced over the trip and with his pedigree not offering the same copper-bottomed guarantees of improving for the test of stamina but it is not without hope that he can successfully step up. His dam won over a fraction shorter and his sire, Churchill, has produced some stayers already, including Perotan who was just over three lengths behind Sea La Rosa in sixth yesterday over 14 furlongs. There are a couple of two mile winners out there at a lowly level while the quirky Grand Alliance has shown a high level of form over middle distances.
Underfoot conditions aren't a problem and we know he has the class having already won the Prix du Jockey Club and the Eclipse. He has ground to make up on the two that finished in front of him at Leopardstown but he didn't enjoy the clearest of runs in Ireland while Soumillon's post-race quotes make for interesting reading.
"When you look after at what happened, the horse had a break for two months after his big run in the Eclipse," he said.
"I knew today he was not 100 per cent fit, but the good thing is at the end of the race he was showing us he could stay a little bit longer. He didn't reply when I asked him like he did in Sandown, probably because he needed it a bit and the track was a bit soft. With a clearer run and more fitness, I am sure he will be able to beat them next time."
Soumillon hasn't won the Arc since the brilliant Zarkava obliged in 2008 but I think he has a decent chance to carry the Aga Khan's silks to victory once again.
Good going
1015: Good morning,
It appears as though the weather is set fair in Paris which will be music to the ears of those who have travelled to the continent for one of the biggest day's of racing in the European calendar. Hopefully, we're in for a treat.
Christophe Soumillon has certainly done his bit to shine a light on proceedings at ParisLongchamp and I rather like the chances of his mount in what appears to be a very open renewal of the Arc.
The ground is described as soft, good to soft in places with a GoingStick reading of 6.4 from yesterday's 6.8.
The big race is due off at 1505 and Luxembourg is the likely favourite although he is a little weak in the betting at present with some 9/2 available. It's 11/2 Alpinista, 13/2 last year's winner Torquator Tasso, 9/1 Vadeni and 11/1 Titleholder.
Drying ground is likely to be good news for the Japanese-trained runner as a nation's search for the Holy Grail goes on.