Live Champions Day blog from Ascot: Video replays, reaction, tips, bookmaker offers and more
"Ground, simple as that," said an emotional Jim Crowley after Baaeed finished fourth to Bay Bridge in the QIPCO Champion Stakes at Ascot. Recap the action.
- Baaeed bows out in fourth as Bay Bridge wins Champion Stakes
- Bayside Boy lands Queen Elizabeth II Stakes after Inspiral missed break
- Dettori doubles up aboard Emily Upjohn
- Four in a row for sprint king Kinross and Dettori
- Trueshan wins third Long Distance Cup under Hollie Doyle
- Shelir wins Balmoral Handicap at 80/1 for David O'Meara
- Frankie Dettori hints at retirement
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All times BST, please refresh for updates
That's all folks
1655: You can't please all the people all the time as the saying goes and that will remain true for QIPCO British Champions Day but it has again served up some excellent racing and no shortage of drama.
Everything was going according to the formbook in the early races with the first three favourites successful but a series of shocks followed with Inspiral blowing the start, Baaeed failing to cope with the ground and then Shelir bursting through the pack to score.
The winners of the Queen Elizabeth II and Champion Stakes were still high-class performers and worthy Group One winners, for all that the favourites disappointed we haven't seen the two big races undeservingly won; they just weren't the results that most of us were expecting.
I hope you've all enjoyed the racing, thank you for reading. I'm away to lend a hand to the team with tidying up the reaction to the finale and the day in general and you'll be able to find all of that on our news pages. Ta ta for now.
Reaction
1648: Watson with Chapman: "David is an unbelievable trainer and does so well in these big handicaps. He said I couldn't tell you which one is going to run better but they've all got a squeak. He said to ride him cold and ride him for a bit of prize money.
"I can't believe how the horse picked up, amazing. He's been running in big field handicaps and has been running okay."
That brought up O'Meara's century for the season; not a bad way to do it.
As Chapman alluded to in the interview, Shelir has often threatened to produce that sort of performance but it could be some time before he's winning another handicap as he will be hit hard by the assessor for that. I thought he was a good deal older than six as he seems to have been around for a while and I'm sure he'll give connections plenty more fun.
They certainly enjoyed today judging by the pictures and I suspect that the celebrations haven't even begun in earnest; it's what it's all about.
Balmoral Handicap
1633: It's the finale.
There's been a notable move for Migration who is 11/2 favourite alongside Bashkirova.
Symbolize and Perotto are my two against the field but the latter has plenty to prove on the ground. Symbolize has been a big drifter since I last checked in with the market and has doubled in price to 22/1; intriguing.
Stormy Antarctic will relish the conditions on his handicap debut at the grand old age of nine and he caught the eye of Mulrennan who has got quite carried away (which is a good thing) with Tyrrhenian Sea who she would like to take home with him as he 'looks like a unicorn'.
Tyrrhenian Sea has been catching the eye in defeat and I'm wary of him as a consequence. His form ties in with the likes of Blue For You who is one of a strong team for David O'Meara who has been mopping up these valuable handicaps this summer. They are loading. Good luck.
Late money for Bashkirova who could provide Haggas and Cheveley Park Stud with a tonic after the last two races.
They initially split into two groups but then merged towards the far side which seems surprising after the sprint where the near side had it. There's not much room against the rail.
Shelir wins for O'Meara and the bookmakers. Sweet Believer second. The winner was 80/1 under Jason Watson who rode a big handicap winner for the yard at Glorious Goodwood aboard Orbaan.
Tacarib Bay ran a big race in third with Safe Voyage fourth and Orbaan fifth.
Winter dreams
1620: I would expect and hope to see all of the first three in training next season which will be something to savour.
Bay Bridge and Adayar have only had 10 career starts and My Prospero sixth so they have hardly any miles on the clock and I'd be hopeful that connections of all three would be eyeing up some big targets next season. Cattermole has just asked Stoute about the Breeders' Cup and 2023 but he shouldered arms and put all responsibility on the owners' shoulders.
Moore caught up with Gold: "We have to feel that the ground went against him. Jim said he wasn't as effective on that ground as he was on faster ground. It's easy to be wise after the event. We're very proud of him, he tried his heart out and was still closing at the line.His full brother loved soft ground and he won on good to soft but until you try you never know.
"He's given us so many wonderful days and he's still the best horse we've ever had. You can't be afraid of things going against you, otherwise you shouldn't be doing it. He's given us some fantastic days and we'll be forever grateful."
In that interview, Moore suggested that it was very clear that some parts of the course are much softer than expected and said 'it's riding a lot softer than we'd all hoped for' which backs up what Gosden said earlier. Once the dust has settled there will be no doubt some comment about the wisdom of staging a meeting of this magnitude at this stage of the season but it's hard to see when else you can put it on. You could then argue whether it is needed at all but I think Champions Day has proved its worth despite such 'niggles' and David Redvers has just said he is 'hugely' proud of the day.
"We all think it's working," he concludes.
Prior to that Appleby had a word on Adayar: "Will made his commitment when we planned to, half a mile out, and to be fair to the horse he stuck at it. Full credit to the winner there, it was a great race to watch. We'll let the dust settle a little bit. We'll see how he is over the next 10 days and make a call but he'll be a lovely horse to have around next year."
Reaction
1605: A huge, huge day for Richard Kingscote who should earn plenty of plaudits for that ride. That panned out perfectly for Bay Bridge who was brought to the boil perfectly by Sir Michael Stoute. They've combined to win the Derby and the Champion Stakes this season, not a bad year's work but you do need the horses and they've proved, again, that....
"Surreal really," says Kingscote. "I guess we came here knowing he was a nice horse but taking on one of the best but you can't be afraid of one horse. They've always liked him back home and on that ground he showed he was a really, lovely animal.
He was a bit fresh but he was going so well into the turn. He responded really well and had to knuckle down; he put in a great effort."
The winning time was 2:09.46.
It's immaterial I suppose but I wonder if that ground was too soft for Baaeed. He certainly didn't travel with the zest that we have come to know and the turn of foot was lacking. He's come back to a good reception though.
Bell grabs a word with an emotional sounding Crowley: "Ground, simple as that. I turned into the straight and normally when we pick up it just wasn't there. Heavy weather really. Press the button and it just wasn't there.
"I'm sorry for everyone we couldn't do it today but he's a special horse."
Sir Michael Stoute on Bay Bridge: "He was very brave. Absolutely thrilled; the staff have done a great job with this horse and we're all delighted. I thought the favourite was unbeatable but I thought he had a great chance of finishing second."
QIPCO Champion Stakes
1535: It's Baaeed et al next but before that I was scanning through the reaction from earlier today and John Gosden had this to say when talking about Emily Upjohn's victory: “The boys are saying the ground is very soft, they can’t find the good to soft, but she went through it all right."
Baaeed has never been asked to tackle soft ground but he has won on good to soft which is, of course, the official going description. He's 'nice and relaxed' in the pre-parade ring according to Hayley Moore.
The bookies are happy to take the cash on the remainder with Adayar at 6/1; I'm surprised he's not stayed steady at 5/1 or shorter with each-way punters in mind. Bay Bridge is widely expected to enjoy conditions and he could build on the promise he showed in early summer; he's 10/1. My Prospero would be my idea of one to hit the frame and he can be backed at 22/1. He ran a huge race in the St James's Palace Stakes before winning a French Group Two over 10 furlongs; I think he's better than the bare form of that latest win and I expect him to run a big race. Beating Baaeed is another matter altogether though.
Moore is with Appleby in the pre-parade ring and he's happy with Adayar: "Preparations have gone well and I can't fault him. Hopefully something will go forward but William's key point is to let him get into his own rhythm as there's no point taking him back."
The presenters are talking about the problems stall 1 represents to Crowley with Tylicki saying that all of his rivals will be aware of Baaeed's draw and won't be making life easy for him, that they'll be riding tight and won't be giving away any unnecessary room. There could be more drama in this race than the market suggests.
Shadwell's racing manager Angus Gold is back in front of the cameras: "He's taken it very while so far, excitement, anticipation and apprehension - a bit of everything. You don't want to get stuck on the rail turning into the straight if you can avoid it but we'll just have to see how the race unfolds."
William Haggas seems a little nervous as he talks to Bell but says 'I feel quite calm, surprisingly calm'.
"You can't do anything about the draw or the ground so that's Jim's problem. I don't see that (the ground) as a problem but you might see me afterwards and I'll say 'he can't go on the ground'."
The parade has been completed and they are down at the start with Harvey saying of Baaeed that 'he's absolutely as cool as a cucumber' which wasn't the case with Stone Age apparently. In the begging ring, Chapman says Adayar is very weak. Last couple coming in.
They're off and Crowley takes Baaeed off the rail and he's towards the rear. Stone Age and Royal Champion lead Bay Bridge and My Prospero. Baaeed is sixth at halfway, Adayar fifth. Dubai Honour keeps him in.
Adayar gets first run and Baaeed is struggling.
Bay Bridge always well placed beats Adayar and My Prospero with Baaeed only fourth.
Reaction
1526: Tom Marquand was on board Bayside Boy who has long been thought of having a performance like that in his locker; it's just taken a while to come to the surface with the blinkers making the difference.
Roger Varian trained the winner: "We thought he was a lively outsider. He had very good juvenile form and we had high hopes for him this season. He really didn't enjoy the firm ground in the summer. He won nicely last time and that must have been a good confidence booster for the horse. I'm looking forward to watching it again!"
Marquand: “It was absolutely mega! This fella was a spare ride and usually when you get Group One spares, you are up against it. But Richard (Ryan, of joint-owners Teme Valley Stud) and Roger were really keen that the surface was going to help and obviously he came here on the back of getting his head in front, which does a horse’s confidence a lot of good.
“It is fantastic to walk away from Champions Day with another winner, as obviously they are hard to come by.
“I was really worried to be honest. They were not going very quick and I was further back than I wanted to be, but he obviously enjoyed chasing them down and from the two there was never a moment where I didn’t think he would get there.”
Marquand was greeted by a few cheers as he and Bayside Boy left the course and I should think there were one or two cheers at that result in the bookmakers' trading rooms around the country.
Ed Chamberlin reveals that Appleby has confirmed that Modern Games will return to the Breeders' Cup where conditions should be far more in his favour. A big run there from Checkandchallenge, justifying his trainer's confidence.
Dettori said: “I went in the stalls second-last, I must have been in there about 10 seconds, the gates opened and she didn’t want to come out, it was one of those cigar moments.
“The whole field went, I found myself last on a filly that needs cover so I ended up behind some outsiders. They went slow, I tried to creep into the race but the race was done at the start."
Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (sponsored by QIPCO)
1453: Inspiral is now evens in places and there could be a few bets rolling on to her and perhaps even Baaeed. I wonder if the layers' palms are starting to get a little sweaty?
Despite the favourite shortening, Modern Games and The Revenant remain at 4/1 and 9/2. It's then 9/1 the supplemented Jadoomi and 16/1 Tempus with Checkandchallenge at 20s. I'd like to see the latter run well for one of the smaller yards but this is a big ask for all that I feel we haven't seen the best of Checkandchallenge yet; picking up a few scraps is probably the best that they can hope for but the sixth will collect over £15k which is worth getting out of bed for.
Unless you're Linda Evangelista.
Ken Pitterson says that most of these horses have hung on to their summer coats and look in great nick. He's talking ITV Racing viewers through the field and his process in evaluating horses in the pre-parade and parade ring. El Drama, The Revenant and Bayside Boy all receive positive mentions but Inspiral has yet to put in an appearance.
Blake is more than happy to excuse Inspiral's defeat in the Falmouth saying that Dettori just got it wrong on the day but he doesn't think that she has much in hand of Modern Games and The Revenant and he likes the latter at the prices with conditions in his favour.
John Gosden has spoken to Sky about Inspiral: "She's in good form, she's never quite run on ground this soft but we're happy with her. Small field, little bit trappy on the wing but we'll see how we go."
Much has been made of the ground but Modern Games is being allowed to take his chance despite concerns raised earlier in the week. That's interesting that it's deemed quick enough but I imagine the Champion Jockey will have been instructed to look after him with the Breeders' Cup in mind if Modern Games doesn't handle the conditions.
"I think the track and conditions will really suit him today so hopefully he'll run a big race," says William Knight of Checkandchallenge. He's come out of France well apparently.
They are arriving at the start and going behind. One or two last minute tack adjustments being made but half the field are in. They're off and Inspiral missed the break by three or four lengths at least. She quickly made the ground up but is last and there's 10 lengths from first to last.
Jadoomi, El Drama and Modern Games in single file at halfway. Nothing has got to those three at the furlong marker but the closers gradually get into it with Bayside Boy (33/1) impressive from Jadoomi and Modern Games with Checkandchallenge fourth.
Reaction
1445: That was impressive. There were six or seven in a bit of a heap behind the winner but Emily Upjohn was in a different class, making light of her wide trip.
Dettori: "It would have been heartbreaking not to win a Group One with this filly this year after what happened at Epsom in the Oaks. She's won a Group One, I'm delighted and she will stay in training next year. Nothing went right at Epsom, then for some reason she ran no race in the King George. John and the owners decided to give her a break. I’ve been riding her last couple of mornings and she has been given me the ‘wow’ factor again.
“It’s an amazing job the team has done. After four months to be pitched into a Group One and do what she did is amazing.”
The day could get better still for Dettori as he has the ride on Inspiral still to come. He's a hard man to keep out of the headlines.
The winning time was 2:33.76.
Lady Lloyd Webber says: "We were all very nervous but we knew she had it in her. Frankie rode a peach of a race, we're very lucky to have him."
"You've got to be prepared for the ups and downs, this is what it's all about," says another owner whose name I didn't catch. He adds that the intention is to stay in training next year and try to win the Arc.
That's good and interesting news and particularly so given Mulrennan's pre-race paddock comments that Emily Upjohn still has a lot of growing and strengthening up to do.
Stewards' enquiry
1439: Fresh from the BHA site, here's the report into the Long Distance Cup:
"An enquiry was held to consider interference on the first bend when the winner, TRUESHAN (FR), ridden by Hollie Doyle, interfered with COLTRANE (IRE), placed second, ridden by David Probert, who in turn interfered with ELDAR ELDAROV, unplaced, ridden by David Egan. Doyle was suspended for 3 days for careless riding as she manoeuvred her mount right-handed when insufficiently clear carrying COLTRANE (IRE) off its intended line onto ELDAR ELDAROV causing Egan to become tight for room on the rails.
"An enquiry was held to consider interference turning into the home straight when the winner, TRUESHAN (FR), ridden by Hollie Doyle, interfered with WORDSWORTH (IRE), placed sixth, ridden by James Doyle. Hollie Doyle was suspended for 2 days for careless riding as she manoeuvred left-handed when insufficiently clear causing James Doyle to have to take a check off the heels of TRUESHAN (FR).
"The performance of ELDAR ELDAROV, which finished unplaced, was considered. Roger Varian could offer no explanation for the colt’s performance. The Veterinary Officer reported that a post-race examination of ELDAR ELDAROV failed to reveal any abnormalities.
"Following the race, the Veterinary Officer reported that WATERVILLE (IRE), unplaced, had lost its right fore shoe."
Fillies and Mares coverage continues in the post below. Loading is taking a while but they're getting there.
QIPCO British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes
1418: Can Dettori complete a quickfire double and make it three from three for the market leaders? I'm in no rush to knock Emily Upjohn but she will need to settle better than when last sighted.
She's being closely challenged in the betting by the progressive Eternal Pearl and I'm a little surprised to see the pair a couple of points shorter than Sea La Rosa who won well in France. Sweet Lady is interesting at 12s having beaten Lilac Road last time and she's a potential pace angle to the race although she'll have to get across from a high draw if she's to make it.
Money continues to come for Australian mare Verry Elleegant who is better than she's been able to show in Europe this summer. I thought she was interesting at 20/1 but far less so at around 14/1 given she still has to prove herself in this continent and that the short Ascot straight may not be ideal as she took a while to hit her stride in France last time. Last year's one-two, Eshaada and Albaflora, are relatively unconsidered at 11/1 and 33s with the former a beaten favourite behind Mimikyu, 10/1, last time. It's an open race.
Chapman is running through the prices in the ring and believes Eshaada is too big and Mulrennan has 'absolutely no negatives about her' in the parade ring. She then casts her eye over Emily Upjohn who is a big filly and she thinks that Emily Upjohn has a lot of growing still to do but looks well.
Francis-Henri Graffard has two runners and says all that he wants is a clear run for Verry Elleegant so that they know where they stand with her; he has no doubt that she's up to this level on what he's seen at home. Cieren Fallon rides Lilac Road and has time for a word with Harvey at the start with his filly being loaded without him; he's hopeful of a big run but stablemate Sea La Rosa is the one for the money at 5/1.
They're off. Sea La Rosa and Sweet Lady are prominent, Emily Upjohn is a little wide and in midfield. Rosscarberry leads past the six. Verry E tracks Emily Upjohn into the home turn, ensuring she's not going to be trapped.
Emily Upjohn (3/1 favourite) hits the front and quickly opens up. Thunder Kiss and Insinuendo second and third with Eshaada fourth.
Reaction
1405: Turns out Kinross does have the speed for six. Two races, two winning favourites. It's a good start for punters.
Chapman chats to Dettori: "Ralph has been training fantastically this year. Two Group Ones in the space of two weeks for Kinross and we will take him to America now.
“I kicked earlier than I usually would with him. I know seven is his optimum trip so I said ‘let’s go, come and catch me’.
“Kinross loves the conditions, Ralph has found the key to this horse, he keeps him happy at home and doesn’t do much with him. He is in tremendous form. And you tipped him this morning, incredible, you tipped a winner.
"I was able to hear the crowd cheering so that was a very good feel factor."
The winning time was 1:15:57.
The winning trainer is with Bell: "He went west a couple of times at three and early in his four-year-old career so to do what he's done is brilliant. It's taken me two and a half years (to turn him into a sprinter). He sort of trains himself now, I don't have to do very much with him.
"He'll go to the Breeders' Cup now all being well and I think it will suit him. He was better off running today than galloping at home."
QIPCO British Champions Sprint Stakes
1341: Onto the first Group One of the day and it looks to be an open one with some of those towards the top of the betting having something to prove in this company over this trip.
I can't have Kinross but the support continues to come for Dettori's mount who is the clear 7/2 favourite to win over six furlongs for the first time. Creative Force, a Group One winner over this trip, is 4/1 with Art Power 5/1 and Rohaan 6s.
Perfect Power, Castle Star and Naval Crown were the three that I was interested in with preference for the latter who is 16/1 after two below par performances but whose best form puts him firmly in the frame. A number of layers are paying down to fifth place so there are a couple of extra spots up for grabs if you're pondering an each-way bet.
I'm not doing so but I would be tempted to place lay Kinross on the exchanges with the standard place terms. Seven furlongs is a specialist trip and for all he's been in great form, I'm not convinced that he has the necessary toe to cope with this lesser test and I think too much is being made of the ground. We shall see.
The draw could play a factor here and if it does then that may impact on Kinross as he's out in 17.
Dettori is with Bell: "The ground is soft which he loves. The draw is not ideal but the horse is in tremendous form and I'm hoping for a good run. When it's good-to-soft it tends to favour the low numbers. I think that confidence with horses is everything and his confidence is sky high."
They are at the post. A lot of the fancied runners are drawn high. Is this ripe for a turn-up? Muhaarar was the last favourite to oblige in 2015. Loading. Racing. They split into two. Kinross is prominent on the near side. He heads his group. Kinross (3/1 favourite) dots up. Run To Freedom second at 150/1. Creative Force third. Rohaan fourth and first home on the far side.
Reaction
1332: There's talk that the stewards will have a look at the replays but I don't think there's anything to worry about. There was the early skirmish, they appeared to come close together on the turn for home and Coltrane leaned in on Trueshan in the straight.
Doyle is delighted: “What a horse. I’m speechless to be honest. Alan King is the maker of this horse. From what he has done today on the back of his last two runs is phenomenal.
“It was really rough going into that first bend. I had Wordsworth on my outside. I was caught in a pocket and it was one of them where you either kick in or get flattened. I kicked in and some people suffered as a consequence.
“For someone like me, I’m quite emotionally invested in the sport and this means the world to me.”
Trueshan answered a good few questions there, he ran fairly straight and really put his head down.
Bell spoke to King: "Nervewracking! I was reading the papers this morning and they'd all written us off, I thought there was no point coming.
"We've been pretty happy with him the last couple of weeks and the ground was right for him but he had to be at his best, Coltrane wasn't stopping and came back at us, and he had to be right up there at his best to hold him off.
"He was travelling well and turning in I thought we had to have every chance here."
There are pictures on ITV Racing from the enquiry.
QIPCO British Champions Long Distance Cup
1315: Three of the last five favourites have obliged in the Long Distance Cup with one of those being Trueshan last year; he's a longer price to record a hat-trick of victories in this Group Two having returned at evens in 2021.
The runners are making their way out onto the course. It has stopped raining.
"He is the best horse in the race, it's as simple as that," says Freddie Tylicki and Kevin Blake agrees, adding 'Trueshan sets the bar very high for these youngsters and I don't know whether they'll be able to come up to it'.
Those youngsters are, of course, Eldar Eldarov and Waterville, the second and third favourites. The 2/1 is a distant memory with Trueshan now 11/8.
Adele Mulrennan believes that she's seen Trueshan looking better than he does today, saying he's just started to go in his coat and that he's a little bit sweaty. Harvey points out that Trueshan usually gets hot so that's nothing to worry about and he thinks he looks better than he did at Doncaster. It's a game of opinions and in Harvey's opinion, Coltrane is the one who looks really well.
They're off.
Quickthorn has made most and opens up by three lengths from Trawlerman as they enter the final seven. Trueshan is on the inside and fourth. Inside the final half mile. Trawlerman challenges. Trueshan needs room and has to make it. Trueshan (11/8 favourite) draws clear with Coltrane and produces a really gutsy performance to win by about a neck. Brilliant stuff.
Coltrane was second at 10s with Trawlerman third at 20s.
They were quite well strung out behind with the three-year-olds noticeably disappointing.
Time for action
1259: The waiting is almost over.
It's time to finalise those ITV 7 and multiple selections etcetera etcetera.
The runners are in the paddock for the Long Distance Cup and there's very little 7/4 left about Trueshan who briefly touched 2/1 with the layers this morning; I imagine that price was more readily available on the exchanges.
Despite the favourite firming up, Eldar Eldarov also remains solid at 11/4 with Waterville the one pushed out to 11/2 to balance the book. Coltrane remains an 8/1 chance - and bigger in places - with Quickthorn at 11s.
There are good vibes behind Trueshan and it would get the day off to a decent start with a popular horse ridden by a popular jockey in Hollie Doyle.
Shadwell's Racing Manager Angus Gold is talking to Mick Fitzgerald and declares that he's 'just trying to enjoy the day' and that he was far more nervous ahead of Frankel's run on Champions Day. In between, there was plenty of chat and praise for the unbeaten Baaeed.
On ITV Racing Ruby Walsh is talking about the difficulty of winning from stall 1 at Ascot, a task which awaits Jim Crowley and Baaeed at 1600. I wonder if he's nervous?
Matt Chapman is calmly relating the market movers as it starts to rain at Ascot before heading into the stands to interview a racegoer or two. The market movers are as we've heard before, namely: Trawlerman, Kinross, Stay Alert, Bashkirova and Tacarib Bay.
The presenters in the paddock are sheltering under umbrellas and rather smugly hand over to a wet looking Oli Bell and Luke Harvey on course. This shower could be bad news for Modern Games and could be too late for Trueshan. They are just supposed to be showers so could be brief but heavy.
Champion jockeys
1242: Newly crowned Champion Jockey William Buick is being interviewed by Mike Cattermole on Sky Sports Racing and saying everything that you would expect him to. He won the championship in a canter.
He started the interview with his son in his arms but after a couple of attempts to grab the microphone and a few words, he set the young man down. Buick has announced his attention to make another bid for the title in 2023 which is something to savour given that the winner of the previous three titles, Oisin Murphy, will be back in the saddle and presumably, with the bit between his teeth.
There is also footage of Benoit de la Sayette receiving a much smaller trophy for being named Champion Apprentice Jockey in a much closer race with Harry Davies almost taking it down to the wire.
Godolphin are Champion Owner after another stellar season but the trainer's title won't be decided until later in the year and there's still plenty to play for in that title race although today's prize money will play a big role in the outcome.
Star of the show
1226: For all that there are class races wherever you look, there's no doubt about the star of the show on QIPCO British Champions Day and that is the unbeaten Baaeed.
Baaeed may no longer be the highest rated horse in the world but that's through no fault of his own and we've yet to see a rival push him to the limit. It's not impossible that could happen today with Adayar, winner of last season's Derby and King George, in the opposition but he's only been seen once this season when winning easily at Doncaster.
Adayar was only fifth in last year's Champion Stakes (having contested the Arc a fortnight prior) and does have something to prove over this 10 furlong trip with his winning reappearance on Town Moor not sufficient proof that he can cut the mustard over this distance at the top level.
Appleby has made a cogent case for putting a line through last year's 'disappointing performances' and is looking forward to the challenge: "Can we beat him? We are going there a fresher horse this year in conditions that we are quite relaxed about. It’s going to be a fantastic race and hopefully one that will go down in the history books as being one of the great races that we have seen over the past few years.”
Among the many quotable quotes from William Haggas about Baaeed, the following is rather overshadowed but more immediately relevant: “Adayar is obviously a very good horse, having won a Derby and the King George.
"Charlie’s horses are running really well and he is talking Adayar up big time. Whether that is to put me under a bit of pressure or he genuinely feels that, I do not know, but I respect Adayar very much, as I respect Bay Bridge, who looked a fantastic horse at Sandown earlier this year."
Team Tips
1220: The Sky Sports Racing preview team have provided their best bets on the Champions Day card and they are as follows:
Waterville - Leonna Mayor
Eldar Eldarov - Gina Bryce
Rohaan - Jim McGrath
Inspiral - Jamie Lynch
Kinross - Mick Fitzgerald
Market movers
1211: The media mail team are earning their corn and the market movers from Ascot's 'official bookmaker' Betfred have appeared in the inbox.
Their Matt Hulmes said: “It has been an interesting morning’s trading with the most salient point being the weakness of the market leaders, particularly Emily Upjohn and Inspiral.
“The Balmoral has attracted the most support and the day’s biggest mover comes there in the form of William Haggas’ Bashkirova, who is now 13/2 from double figures overnight. Goodwood’s Golden Mile winner Orbaan has also been backed into 11/1 from 16/1.
“There has been a spread of cash in the Long Distance Cup against the market leaders, while Kinross is the best backed in the Sprint, into 4/1 from 11/2 for back-to-back Group One wins.
“Stay Alert (10/1 from 12/1) and Albaflora (20/1 from 25/1) are solid in the Fillies & Mares, while 2020 winner The Revenant has been nibbled into 9/2 in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes.”
1325: TRAWLERMAN 16/1 from 20/1; WORDSWORTH 25/1 from 40/1
1400: KINROSS 4/1 from 5/1; PERFECT POWER 17/2 from 10/1
1440: STAY ALERT 10/1 from 12/1; ALBAFLORA 20/1 from 25/1
1520: THE REVENANT 9/2 from 6/1
1640: BASHKIROVA 13/2 from 10/1 SYMBOLIZE 11/1 from 14/1 ORBAAN 11/1 from 16/1
Let the Games begin
1156: One way that I could be tempted to get Eldar Eldarov onside is in an each-way double with Modern Games about whom Charlie Appleby said earlier in the week 'if the ground is no worse than good to soft, with the odd patch of soft, then I would imagine he will take his chance. If it’s soft ground, he most likely won’t be a starter on the day'.
At the moment, Modern Games is set to take his chance and he's 4/1 second favourite behind Inspiral in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes. His form with cut in the ground doesn't look too bad even allowing for discrepancies in going descriptions between France and the UK; he won the French Guineas on good to soft, was third in the French Derby on soft and beaten under two lengths in the Jean Prat on good to soft.
The straight at Ascot usually dries quickly and rides that bit faster than the round course so I'd be more than hopeful that Modern Games will be able to run close to his best which should see him push Inspiral close.
St Leger winner Eldar Eldarov has obvious scope to lay it down to Trueshan in the opener and at around 11/4, the pair would produce a profit if both placing and I think both have reasonable prospects of upsetting their respective favourites.
Jamie Lynch and Jim McGrath are analysing Inspiral's victory in the Jacques le Marois and are arguing that the performance is much better than the bare facts suggest as she ran a quick sectional in the hottest part of the race and wasn't asked to do too much once the race was won.
Lynch thinks she should be a 4/5 shot rather than 5/4 and McGrath concurs that 'she will be hard to beat' and that Inspiral is being priced up with her 1/7 defeat in the Falmouth in mind rather than on the balance of the rest of her form.
Downtime Frankie?
1147: Frankie Dettori has raised the possibility that next season may be his last in the saddle.
“I’m definitely riding on next year, I know that, one hundred per cent,” Dettori told The Sun.
“There are still some things to look forward to but next season might be my last. At the moment I’m still loving it, I’m riding whenever I can. But we’ll have to see how I’m feeling this time next year.
“Hopefully someone can find me a winner in the July Cup! That’s the only big race I need.
“My shoulder is horrible, it looks black and it’s bruised. I got a right kicking (at Newmarket) but I can’t feel any pain.”
Click on the link at the top of the page for the full story on our news index.
True believer
1130: At least one layer is dangling a 2/1 carrot about Trueshan in the Long Distance Cup which is seriously tempting given that underfoot conditions are broadly to his liking, he's won the last two renewals and is rated 6 lbs and upwards clear of his rivals.
Trueshan has been beaten on his last two starts though and therein lies the space for the doubters. You'd be a hard person to argue that there was much wrong with his Goodwood defeat to Kyprios and Stradivarius but his subsequent run in the Doncaster Cup is definitely a concern given that he was long odds-on and wandered across the track.
Trueshan has been reported to have pleased connections since and there is the possibility that he wasn't quite letting himself down on Town Moor having run on ground faster than he has encountered in the past at Goodwood while some have also pointed to his weight-carrying performance in the Northumberland Plate leaving a mark.
I've oscillated between thinking that he's a terrific price to get the afternoon and party started and between thinking that he's set the opener up for an each-way play. Trawlerman was the one that I initially latched on to for the latter but his price has contracted and 18/1 leaves me a little cold given that he was 25s. I couldn't touch Quickthorn given his poor record in October and abject run in Paris but I empathise; after all, many are affected by the changing of the seasons and he'd be aptly named to be so.
Doncaster Cup winner Coltrane is a ho-hum price; he's solid but not exciting, which just leaves the three-year-olds and new challengers for Trueshan. There hasn't been a winning three-year-old in the Long Distance Cup at Ascot but plenty have run well as a glance down the recent renewals testifies.
Tashkan, 50/1, split Trueshan and Stradivarius last year, Ballydoyle pair Sir Erec and Flag Of Honour were third and fourth in 2018 while Stradivarius himself was a one length third the previous year. I won't go on but it's clear that they can be competitive.
I don't think that there's much mileage in the odds of either Eldar Eldarov or Waterville though and for all that they could easily be on the premises I would rather back Trueshan or one each-way at a price than have a win single on one of the youngsters.
Verry interesting
1058: The Caulfield Cup was run this morning prompting some ante-post movement in the Melbourne Cup market.
Verry Elleegant won last year's Melbourne Cup and was then sent to Europe for an ambitious tilt at the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe but for well publicised reasons Verry Elleegant wasn't able to line up in the Arc.
The irritatingly named - well, spelled - mare hasn't shone in three starts in France but it's not unreasonable to create some excuses for her.
Verry Elleegant's run in the Prix Foy was certainly a step up from her effort in the Romanet and it's easy to put a line through her run in the Royallieu on Arc weekend. She was always in the wrong place in a relatively slowly run race and didn't get daylight until far too late in proceedings; she didn't appear to possess an instant turn of foot but did make late gains when getting into her stride.
A lack of pace in the Fillies and Mares Stakes along with Ascot's short straight are potential negatives as is the fact that this is probably an afterthought given the French experiment went so badly wrong. However, I don't think the race in Paris will have taken too much out of her and she's surely better than she was able to show there and the brilliant Mikael Barzalona replaces Mark Zahra in the saddle which is no bad thing with course familiarity a definite plus.
In an open race which has thrown up a fair few surprises over the years, Verry Elleegant is another runner for whom I'm prepared to be forgiving at around 20/1 with extra places on offer.
Bay of Plenty
1044: There has been a notable move for Value Bet selection Tacarib Bay in the Balmoral Handicap with Richard Hannon's runner 17/2 in places and a general 10/1 from 16/1. Bashkirova was available at 10/1 yesterday but is currently 13/2 across the boards.
Not all good gambles oblige though sadly as supporters of Bay of Plenty will remember only too well. There was notable support for Johnny Murtagh's runner in the Rockingham last weekend but he trailed home in seventh. It's interesting that Murtagh turns Bay of Plenty out again so quickly in the Killavullan Stakes at the Curragh where he is one of three runners for the yard.
Murtagh told his Sporting Life column: "We thought he had improved since Naas but he was a bit disappointing so we're going to get him out quickly again. This is the last weekend [in Ireland] where there's Group action for these two-year-olds so we'll see where he fits in the whole scheme of things. It wouldn't surprise me if he left last week's run well behind him."
Hmm. 25/1 anyone? Are you in a forgiving mood?
Some certainly seem to be as far as Symbolize is concerned as he's also fairly popular, too popular for my money, in the Balmoral Handicap as well. He blew out in the Challenge Cup, as did Fresh who runs in the Sprint, but I just wondered whether the pair of them were on the wrong part of the track given the way that race developed. Symbolize was second in last year's Balmoral, races from the same mark and could conceivably improve for the fitting of cheekpieces. As ever, the key question is what you deem to be a fair price for a horse who only beat one home last time. Symbolize is a solid 11/1 from a high of 14s.
Do you ken your kin?
1023: I'm intrigued by the support for Kinross in the Sprint Stakes but not because I want to be with him.
Kinross has been on the radar of some of the better judges for the six furlong contest for a little while with Matt Brocklebank writing that he was overpriced at 6/1 following his win at ParisLongchamp and, sorry Matt, I must confess I scoffed. This is the bulk of the copy:
"Kinross is the answer after his coming-of-age G1 win in the Foret. You can’t argue that hadn’t been coming either as he’s looked better than ever as a five-year-old and another glance at last year’s Champions Day effort shows a strict reading of the form does not suffice. Dettori was badly squeezed when first looking to mount his run and was ultimately left with no option but to push him out hands-and-heels to finish ninth long after all chance of winning had evaporated.
"The Frankie factor can’t be underestimated at any Ascot meeting and Kinross – who has never won a six-furlong race of any description but possesses all the qualities for this particular test - being sent off well-backed on Saturday would come as no shock. He really should be favourite."
Matt is more or less on the money as you can see from the Paddy Power market movers below, Kinross is alongside Creative Force at the top of the betting and I still don't get it. Obviously I understand the case but who wants to back a horse who has never won over the trip to make that breakthrough at the top level and this is not a weak Group One by domestic standards. I may well end up with egg on my face but I was much more interested in Matt's ante-post Value Bet selection Castle Star, Perfect Power and Naval Crown.
I don't think the first two need any explanation but the latter might do given he comes into the race on the back of two poor performances. Naval Crown is the price he is, 16/1, because of those two runs but he's closely matched with Creative Force on his other form and the pair have twice finished first and second in Group races at this track. The temptation to chance my arm with the Platinum Jubilee Stakes winner and July Cup second at those odds in a race which isn't vastly different may be too much for me to resist.
Going news
1013: Good morning, are you ready for some top-class action?
There are some fascinating clashes ahead of us, not least Baaeed against the field in the QIPCO Champion Stakes as the superstar bids to end his career with an unbeaten record.
Baaeed is a 2/9 chance - what did you expect? - with last year's Derby winner Adayar at 6/1 and it's 10/1 bar leading some tipsters to suggest that there is some each-way value behind the favourite.
Modern Games chased home Baaeed in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood and he is a 4/1 chance to win the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes with Inspiral drifting out to 6/4.
There are no non-runners at present while the going remains Good to Soft, Soft in places. There are some showers forecast as Chris Stickels, Clerk of the Course and Head of Racing at Ascot, said: “We are really pleased with the track – it is in lovely condition.
“We are a mixture of Good to Soft, Soft in places, with the soft sections largely on the round course around Swinley Bottom.
“It has been a relatively dry build-up to the day with 10mm rain in the past week. We may get the occasional blustery shower today but nothing substantial is forecast.” .
GoingStick readings at 8am
Straight: 7.3
Round: 6.7
Stalls
Straight: far side
Round course: inside