Leading first-season sire: Sioux Nation a worthy favourite

The big question is can Scat Daddy come up trumps for Coolmore again? Two of his sons, No Nay Never and Caravaggio, have been the leading first-season sire in the last four years and Paddy Power’s market makes another of Scat Daddy’s Royal Ascot winners, Sioux Nation, a hot favourite to become another.

As an American dirt horse (a Grade 1 winner at both two and three), at first glance Scat Daddy might seem an unlikely candidate to be siring successful sires of two-year-olds in Europe. But he was himself a son of Johannesburg who was unbeaten in seven starts as a high-class two-year-old for Aidan O’Brien. Those wins included the Norfolk Stakes, Phoenix Stakes, Prix Morny and Middle Park Stakes before he made a successful switch to the dirt to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Smart sprinter Sioux Nation was therefore following in his grandsire’s footsteps when winning the Norfolk and the Phoenix – the former was also won by No Nay Never and the latter by Caravaggio.

Before we go any further, we should make it clear that Paddy Power’s market is settled by a sire’s number of wins, not by prize money which is the generally accepted criteria for deciding the first-season title in Britain and Ireland. Often, of course, the most successful sire numerically also earns the most prize money but that wasn’t the case last year. Caravaggio, responsible for the Cheveley Park winner Tenebrism, finished only joint-fifth by number of wins behind Cotai Glory who was runner-up to him in the prize money table.

That being the case, the size of a sire’s first crop is all the more important. Not surprisingly, in four of the last five years, the sire with the most number of runners also had the most number of winners. The exception was No Nay Never who had only 44 runners in 2018 but half of those turned out to be winners. All the other leading sires by number of wins in the last five years have had at least 70 runners.

Sioux Nation has a huge first crop of 142 reported foals which is about 40% more than the other sires with the largest first crops. That’s a massive advantage and, coupled with his own profile as a smart and speedy two-year-old, it all adds up to Sioux Nation being a worthy short-priced favourite.

Sioux Nation stood his first season at Coolmore at a fee of €12,500 and there was some quality as well as quantity in his first crop. Among his notable yearlings to go through the ring were a half-sister to 1000 Guineas winner Mother Earth who sold for €230,000 and a son of useful Irish sprinter Knock Stars who was bought by Coolmore for 215,000 guineas.

The other first-season sire to combine a large book (103 reported foals) with a sprinting profile is Havana Grey who stood his first season for £8,000 at Whitsbury Manor Stud in Hampshire. By the smart performer up to a mile Havana Gold, Havana Grey took after his useful dam Blanc de Chine who raced exclusively over five furlongs. Havana Grey won four times at two, notably the Molecomb Stakes at Goodwood, but he trained on well at three when winning the first running of the Flying Five Stakes as a Group 1 contest in which he had Sioux Nation behind him in third.

The next two in the betting, Saxon Warrior and Roaring Lion, with 100 and 90 foals respectively, are not short of ammo in theory but it’s less certain that either of them will have enough early or sprinting types to keep pace with the likes of Sioux Nation and Havana Grey. The pair did perform at the highest level at two, but not until fighting out the finish of the Racing Post Trophy late in the year. That was the first of six meetings between them, with Saxon Warrior on top again in the 2000 Guineas before Roaring Lion got the better of their subsequent exchanges, including in tight finishes to both the Eclipse and Irish Champion Stakes.

It will be fascinating to see how their rivalry continues to be played out by their first foals. Sadly, Roaring Lion foaled just the one crop before he succumbed to colic but his yearlings posted the highest median price among the first-season sires. Saxon Warrior is of interest for being the first son of Japan’s outstanding stallion Deep Impact to have a sizeable crop of two-year-olds in Europe.

A couple more likely to make their mark with their first crop of two-year-olds are Expert Eye and Harry Angel, son and grandson respectively of Acclamation whose son Mehmas broke records when becoming leading first-season sire in 2020. While Acclamation is best known for his sprinters, Juddmonte’s Expert Eye gained his biggest career win in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, though at least as memorable was his impressive win on just his second start at two in the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood. Expert Eye’s foals include some home-breds out of Group winners from his breeders' own broodmare band, while his most expensive yearling, a 290,000 guinea half-sister to Group 3-winning two-year-olds Brown Sugar and Burnt Sugar, will also be running in the Juddmonte colours.

Dark Angel has been Acclamation’s most successful stallion son to date and July Cup and Sprint Cup winner Harry Angel, who had a top-class Timeform rating of 132, is the highest-rated son of Dark Angel to go to stud. He also emulated his sire by winning the Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury at two, losing his maiden tag in the process on just his second start. Standing at Darley’s Dalham Hall, Harry Angel’s first crop were conceived at a fee of £20,000 like Expert Eye’s. His top-priced yearling was a colt out of listed winner Red Box who sold for £220,000 at Doncaster.

It's 33/1 bar these half-dozen but a mention should also go to Cracksman whose first runners will be eagerly awaited as he’s not just the best son of Frankel to date (Timeform rating 136) but also the first to have runners. The dual Champion Stakes winner won’t have the number of two-year-old winners to be of interest in this market, in all probability, but he seems sure to have some well-bred types coming through later in the season.

Another exciting prospect with his first crop of two-year-olds, at least as far as the Northern Hemisphere is concerned, is Zoustar who stood under the Qatar Racing banner at Tweenhills in 2019 for £25,000. The odds compilers have left him out of this market as he’s already had runners in Australia but he’d put the cat among the pigeons if he can make a similar sort of impact in the British Isles as he has down under. He was champion first-season sire in Australia in 2017/18 where his fee has more than trebled such has been his success in that part of the world.

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