Latest Timefigure analysis including on Cheltenham Festival hopeful Windbeneathmywings

Other than standing in as a temporary replacement, as I did last week when my colleague Kristian Hilliam was on annual leave, I haven’t had much involvement with day-to-day jumps timefigures at Timeform since I built the timefigure model that is still in use today coming up for ten years or so ago.

That project was a herculean task if I say so myself, not only because it involved the compilation of standards for all racecourses that stage jumps racing in Britain and Ireland from not always reliable data, but also because it also required a reconstruction of both the upgrade formula that was in place on the Flat (so that it overcame the often problematical huge additional yardage usually in place over jumps and also bettered represented upgrades that were gained when the relationship between the overall race distance and sectional distance is far from optimal) as well as the rebuilding of the timefigure model itself, so that the upgrades that influence the final level of the timefigures did so from within the model and not outside of it as is still currently the case on the Flat.

As with all models, however, the final figures are only as good as the data that goes into them and perhaps the most difficult input of all to land on accurately is the sectional distance, which is by default three obstacles from home but might be another fixed marker on the track if that distance is judged to be too far from the winning line.

It’s easy enough to establish a sectional distance over fences from Google Earth, at least for those courses that use immoveable fences, but given hurdles are forever being moved around to preserve the ground the one eventually used in the timefigure process might end up being one far removed from the default one (usually the one most commonly used) such as happened at both Uttoxeter and Haydock last week.

Given the explosion of data available these days which in itself has unsurprisingly spawned new concepts such as ‘lengths gained jumping’, effectively a much more modern version of the ‘Jumpability’ ratings Timeform introduced over ten years ago but which ended up being retired last year as it was deemed fences were becoming too easy to jump, but isn’t always available in the format that punters or analysts need it, it struck me during my week standing in that making public the distance from each of the last three obstacles to the line ought to be part of the race day information racecourses communicate to customers alongside the latest going information and any added yardage. I wonder which racecourse will rise to the challenge and be the first to provide this information in 2025?

For all I might have been handed the reins for a week in the middle of the jumps season, in all honesty there wasn’t a whole lot going on to be interested about on the clock, for all that Ascot hosted Grade 1 action at the weekend in the shape of the Howden Long Walk Hurdle and Haydock staged the Betfred Tommy Whittle Chase, which like so many long-standing handicaps nowadays is a shadow of its former self.

Besides that, there were just two Irish meetings ahead of the post-Christmas onslaught with one of those meetings, Thurles, being a fixture that Timeform don’t return timefigures from and judging by a recent review of races times data from there, won’t be any time soon either.

Deck plays his cards right

That said, the fixture at Naas was a decent one by Monday standards, seeing as it did the return to action of Rachael Blackmore in the opening race of the day but her mount, the 2023 Supreme winner Slade Steel, went down to his second defeat over fences, disappointingly too at the hands of a horse 11lb his inferior over hurdles and who had finished only fifth in the Albert Bartlett, Lecky Watson, in a steadily-run race (92 timefigure) in which the third-placed horse Blizzard Of Oz on his chasing debut interestingly ran a much faster final circuit (as well as half-mile too according to the Course Track data) than either of the pair that beat him.

Later in the card over hurdles, Shuffle The Deck looked a smart novice, winning the maiden in a 124 timefigure on the back of a much faster final circuit than any of the other three hurdles on the card and despite that still coming home from the last by calculations almost a second faster than the other three winners too. In the context of this well-run race, fifth-placed Quantum Quest who was making his debut for Henry de Bromhead is also worth noting, running the last furlong almost half a second faster than Shuffle The Deck despite being given a considerate ride as he kept on into fifth.

Prophesea, a horse given a good write up in this column after his eye-catching third and fast finish at Chepstow last time, continued his progress with a ready win at Wincanton in a reasonable 112 timefigure, a figure bettered on Tuesday only by Wise Eagle’s 116 at Catterick, an indication he’s clearly one of the best novice hurdlers in the North and surely capable of much better given he wasn’t at all extended here.

Better on the clock on Wednesday came from Tightenourbelts (127) in a handicap chase at Ludlow, Harper’s Brook (126) in a handicap hurdle at Newbury and Guard Duty (122) in a handicap hurdle at Lingfield, unlike either Thursday meetings at Ffos Las and Exeter which produced nothing of interest.

The most interesting race at Ascot on Friday, on a personal level at least, was the Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase which saw the second appearance over fences of Iberico Lord, a horse I put up as a speculative bet for the Arkle two months ago. The only speculation to take place now, I expect, is how soon he will go back over hurdles because as on his chasing debut he looked far from an accomplished jumper, albeit he would have returned a timefigure in the region of 144 had he not come down two from home.

The handicap hurdle won by King William Rufus produced the best comparative figure of the day, 124, if not the best performance rating relative to the discipline it was recorded in which was put up by Windbeneathmywings in the concluding bumper. A rating of 121 is the sort of level that would entitle him to finish in the placings in the Champion Bumper but his win has to be viewed in the context that he was allowed his own way in front, for the most part at a steady tempo hugging the inside rail, and a 91 timefigure is nothing exceptional in the wider scheme of things which makes me question whether the significant amount of improvement he appears to have shown since his last race in Ireland three months earlier is more imagined than real.

How much relevance the Long Walk Hurdle will have down the line is a moot point too. A potter around right-handed Ascot (winning timefigure just 111) dictated by one back over hurdles in an attempt to protect his official handicap mark over fences (it worked, but his hurdle mark went up 6lb) is a far cry from the strong gallop that usually ensues in the Stayers’ Hurdle on the New Course at Cheltenham never mind the opposition and it shouldn’t be forgotten Crambo, who was winning the Long Walk for the second year in succession as race favourite Strong Leader ran abysmally, fell a long way short in both his spring Group 1 tasks last year.

An early fall for Iroko after looking unsettled by Fil Dor jumping across him took much of the interest away from the four-runner Graduation Chase, leaving it all to the remaining three Irish-trained runners, and like the Long Walk it wasn’t strongly run unsurprisingly, last year’s Gold Cup sixth Jungle Boogie making all in a 137 timefigure.

‘Will surely be one of the Christmas handicap bankers after this pipe-opener if turning up in the Silver Cup which he won last year off a mark just 1lb lower when leading on the bridle at the second last’ was what I wrote about Victtorino after his fast-finishing-third in the Coral Gold Cup on his reappearance and he proved that prediction right when running a career-best 150 timefigure in the Silver Cup, giving runner-up The Changing Man quite a start but running him close home to give trainer Venetia Williams her regular winter Saturday big-race win.

Greatwood sixth Fiercely Proud won the concluding ‘Premier’ Handicap in a 134 timefigure after getting the better of the year-younger Kabral Du Mathan (137) who was conceding 3lb by a short head; interestingly, that pair have had their official marks raised by 9lb and 8lb respectively, which makes last-hurdle faller Secret Squirrel when in third look very well handicapped given he helped set a frantic pace yet has escaped with no rise in his official mark.

Winter warmer

Handing out gongs isn’t usually the remit of this column, but given it’s that rare time of year and prompted by watching Liam Harkin and Sharon Hamilton share the winning honours in the latest Tipstar Search For a Broadcaster competition at Cheltenham’s December meeting I thought I’d get into the holiday spirit for once, don my best buttonless Rupert Rigsby cardigan (for readers of a certain age) and spread some observational goodwill.

What the future holds for Liam and Sharon (whose son is a jockey) remains to be seen but as Jess Stafford of Racing TV, whose burgeoning media portfolio was featured in the Racing Post on Monday, was quickly told last year when tweeting it was disappointing that more young people weren’t finding their way into the racing media, the media positions available – pundit, analyst, broadcaster, pod guest or host - are all dominated by the same small group of people if they aren’t already acting as jockey agents or advisors to trainers, so making access for newcomers to a wider audience – which is presumably exactly the point of the competition – far from easy.

Perhaps this explains why we haven’t seen more of Katie Midwinter. She won the 2023 competition last December at Kempton Park with a very articulate display of winter all-weather knowledge and has since gone on to demonstrate a far more detailed command of the murky world of low-grade Irish racing form than anyone else I’m aware of besides which she isn’t afraid to put her money where her mouth is with bet recommendations in such events at the sort of double-figure prices most mainstream analysts and tipsters would baulk at.

There’s no shortage of minor Irish meetings that feature on Racing TV and given Jess will probably be seen less from now on its perhaps time for Racing TV to shuffle their schedule a little and finally give more exposure to someone whose deep knowledge and interest comes across in spades in the small screen time she does get.

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