Matt Brocklebank looks over the past decade of King George VI Chase winners and forms a shortlist of suitable candidates this Boxing Day.
King George VI Chase: 10-year trends
- Official rating 160+: 10/10
- Aged between 6 and 8: 9/10
- Run in the last 60 days: 9/10
- Trained in Britain: 8/10
- Run at Kempton before: 7/10
The trends for Kempton's Ladbrokes King George VI Chase - Britain's most prestigious race of its type aside from the Cheltenham Gold Cup - make for interesting reading as punters look to have latched onto the 'right' horse in recent weeks, with Grey Dawning currently heading the betting at a general 7/2.
'Is he good enough?' was the question on everyone's lips prior to the Betfair Chase comeback, as his Cheltenham Festival victory in the now-defunct Turners had received one or two knocks earlier in the campaign, and going into Haydock the grey was only officially rated 157.
That sort of rating would have seen Dan Skelton's horse come up short at the very first criteria in terms of 10-year King George trends, seeing as all of the winners in that period (and the vast majority before then let's be honest) were already considered 160-plus chasers before striking gold on Boxing Day.
But a strong-travelling second to the stout staying Royale Pagaille saw Grey Dawning's mark rise 8lb to 165 which brings him right into the equation based on class and he obviously has the recent run to call upon too, something which all bar Hewick 12 months ago have had in the past decade.
WATCH: Did Grey Dawning enhance his credentials in defeat at Haydock?
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Aged seven, trained in Britain and with a Kempton victory on the CV from his time over hurdles, there really is very little to mark the favourite down on and if you're casting the net even wider and on the hunt for Grade 1 winners, plus proven stayers at three miles, then he ticks those boxes as well.
The one very minor fear would be if the ground comes up unusually quick, which doesn't look particularly likely, but he has won on going described as good to soft (officially and by Timeform) at Exeter a couple of years ago, though all his subsequent victories have been achieved on soft or heavy.
No other horse fits the bill quite like Grey Dawning, who may well get a fair bit shorter than his current price once the final field has been confirmed on Monday.
Il Est Francais is trained in France which isn't ideal from a trends perspective as you're going back to the year 2000 and First Gold (Thierry/Francois Doumen) for the last King George winner from that part of the world, while he has to bounce back from a lifeless effort last time out.
Having said that, he was the early favourite for this and is clearly a special talent on his day, something he showcased on the Kempton card last Christmas when running away with the Kauto Star Novices' Chase. Connections have recently reported that he passed their extensive veterinary tests so remain in the dark as to the issue which forced James Reveley to pull him up early at Auteuil.
The other one to consider closely is Banbridge, who was on his way to giving Energumene some sort of race in the Hilly Way Chase before unseating rider at the last fence at Cork. 'Unseat' is a harsh term in this instance really as the winner's late waywardness forced Banbridge into a mistake and it was seriously unfortunate for his jockey Richie Deegan who stood next to no chance of staying intact.
He's housed in Ireland and suggesting that as a genuine negative would be utter madness, not least due to two of the past three winners being trained there, while he's eight years old and has plenty of class to boot (rated 165).
Banbridge has also got experience of Kempton's chase course, having won the Grade 2 Silviniaco Conti Chase here back in January, and the one real question mark hanging over him is around stamina as he's never won beyond two miles and five furlongs, and did have his most recent prep run at two miles.
Past 10 winners and individual details
Hewick 2023
Age: 8
Official rating: 167
Days since last ran: 146
Previous race: 14th in Galway Plate at Galway
Course form: N/A
Trainer: Shark Hanlon
Bravemansgame 2022
Age: 7
Official rating: 164
Days since last ran: 58
Previous race: WON Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby
Course form: 1
Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Tornado Flyer 2021
Age: 8
Official rating: 161
Days since last ran: 21
Previous race: 5th in John Durkan Chase at Punchestown
Course form: N/A
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Frodon 2020
Age: 8
Official rating: 168
Days since last ran: 21
Previous race: 4th in Many Clouds Chase at Aintree
Course form: F1
Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Clan Des Obeaux 2019
Age: 7
Official rating: 169
Days since last ran: 54
Previous race: 2nd in Ladbrokes Champion Chase at Down Royal
Course form: 21
Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Clan Des Obeaux 2018
Age: 6
Official rating: 160
Days since last ran: 32
Previous race: 4th in Betfair Chase at Haydock
Course form: 2
Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Might Bite 2017
Age: 8
Official rating: 162
Days since last ran: 44
Previous race: WON Intermediate Chase at Sandown
Course form: 1F
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Thistlecrack 2016
Age: 8
Official rating: 174h
Days since last ran: 30
Previous race: WON novices’ chase at Newbury
Course form: N/A
Trainer: Colin Tizzard
Cue Card 2015
Age: 9
Official rating: 172
Days since last ran: 27
Previous race: WON Betfair Chase at Haydock
Course form: 525
Trainer: Colin Tizzard
Silviniaco Conti 2014
Age: 8
Official rating: 174
Days since last ran: 48
Previous race: WON Betfair Chase at Haydock
Course form: 21
Trainer: Paul Nicholls
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