Dublin Racing Festival trends ahead of 2021 Cheltenham Festival
Paul Ferguson of Weatherbys takes time out from writing his Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide to bring us the key names to note at Leopardstown with the 2021 Cheltenham Festival in mind.
In 2018 the Dublin Racing Festival was created. Two days of top-class racing – which consists of an amalgamation between the original Irish Champion Hurdle (late-January) and Irish Gold Cup (early/mid-February) cards, with a few new additions – which allows the leading Irish horses more than five weeks recovery-time ahead of the Cheltenham Festival.
The Grade 1 contests are top-class races in their own right, and the leading Irish trainers treat the meeting with the respect that it deserves. However, given the quality on show, many of the main events – unsurprisingly – do have an impact on the Cheltenham Festival.
The two-day fixture gets underway with one of the new – or should I say, reformed – races. Prior to the Dublin Racing Festival, the Golden Cygnet Novice Hurdle was staged over 2m4f, and was won in 2006 by Nicanor before he lowered the colours of Denman in the Ballymore. It was a Grade 3 in those days, and it was a Grade 2 when Let’s Dance won the final renewal over that distance in 2017, which preceded her victory in the Dawn Run. The current sponsors – Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors – have been associated with the race since 2015, but since the introduction of the ‘DRF’ the distance of the race has been increased to 2m6f and the contest now holds Grade 1 status.
In those past three years, each winner has gone on to finish in the first five of the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham. Tower Bridge finished fifth at Cheltenham, whilst fourth that year Dortmund Park ended up earning Grade 1 honours at the Punchestown Festival. Two years ago, Commander Of Fleet finished runner-up in the Albert Bartlett after winning this race, as did last year’s winner Latest Exhibition. Back in fourth, Fury Road also hit the frame in the Albert Bartlett, and whilst we have yet to see a festival winner emerge from this 2m6f event, I expect it is only a matter of time. It is also worth noting that Tower Bridge and Commander Of Fleet were only five-year-olds, and those of that age do tend to find it difficult in the Albert Bartlett.
Given the open-look to the Albert Bartlett at present, this race could have a significant impact on the ante-post market. Course winner Stattler currently heads the betting for the Albert Bartlett, but there are any number of interesting horses entered, including Ashdale Bob, who appeals as the type who will relish going up in distance, and the lightly-raced/unexposed pairing of Cape Gentleman and Gentlemansgame. Stattler originally headed the betting for this race, too, but has since been usurped by stable-mate Gaillard du Mesnil, and on Tuesday he was taken out of Sunday’s 2m contest, leaving this as his weekend target. His maiden win over 2m4f from the Christmas Festival has been well advertised by the placed horses (as recently as last weekend by the runner-up) and he is now prominent in the market for the Ballymore, behind Bravemansgame and Bob Olinger, both of whom have already won at Grade 1 level. This could be a very strong renewal, and should set the tone for the weekend.
Sticking with the novice hurdle division, Sunday’s Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle is another to have had the distance amended in the past three years. Formerly the Deloitte Novice Hurdle (2m2f), Istabraq won this race in 1997 before winning the Ballymore (or the Royal SunAlliance as it was back then), whilst Hardy Eustace (2nd) and Windsor Park (4th) emerged from the Deloitte to win the same Cheltenham contest. Like-A-Butterfly, Brave Inca, Champagne Fever and Vautour all won this race before dropping back by a quarter-of-a-mile to win the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle between 2002 and 2014.
That last-named pairing were, of course, trained by Willie Mullins, who has won this race seven times in the past eight years, with only Samcro – in the first year of it being staged over 2m – breaking his formidable run. Gordon Elliott’s sole winner of the race to date did, of course, follow up in the Ballymore, whilst the past two winners Klassical Dream and Asterion Forlonge took their chance in the Supreme. The former was successful, whilst last year’s winner finished fourth in the festival curtain-raiser, having caused chaos as the field travelled down the hill.
Favourite for Sunday’s race is another Willie Mullins inmate, Appreciate It, who has won both starts over hurdles, and won a Grade 2 bumper at this meeting last year. At the beginning of the campaign, I expected him to need 2m4f (or thereabouts) over hurdles, but he beat a smart horse in the shape of Master McShee (won twice since) on his debut at Cork, before running out a taking winner of the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle over this course-and-distance. Cut from a similar cloth as previous winner Champagne Fever, he is likely to be difficult to beat here, which will in turn, likely strengthen his position at the top of the betting for the Supreme. I still have – in the back of my mind – that he could be more of a Ballymore horse, so Sunday could be telling.
What is telling is that in the three years that the race has been staged in its current format (over the minimum trip), two of the winners have gone on to win one of the festival novice hurdles. This tends to be strong form, and this year is likely to prove no different.
The second of four Grade 1s on Saturday is the Dublin Chase, with the 2m1f contest another which has been dominated by Willie Mullins. Only formed in 2018 when the ‘DRF’ came about (replacing the Tied Cottage Chase at Punchestown), Mullins has won all three renewals with Min (twice) and Chacun Pour Soi. Following his first victory in the race, Min finished runner-up in the Queen Mother Champion Chase and filled the same spot in Aintree’s Melling Chase, whereas he finished fifth and first in those races, respectively, following his second win in 2019. He chased home his stable-mate (in the same ownership) last year, en route to winning the Ryanair at the festival, whilst the winner was forced to miss the Champion Chase at the very last minute. Team Mullins would probably be more than happy for the same outcome this year, teeing both up nicely for their respective festival assignments.
Next up is the Irish Arkle. Un de Sceaux, Douvan and Footpad all won this race en route to winning the Cheltenham equivalent in recent years (all trained by – you guessed it – Willie Mullins), although the former was the first to complete the Arkle double since Klairon Davis some 20 years earlier (1995). Moscow Flyer might well have completed the double in 2002, but he was a faller in this race, showing early signs of his tendency to hit the deck every so often; he actually fell twice out of his first five starts over fences, but got it right on the big day in March, when he comfortably won the Arkle. Back to matters in hand, and Mullins again holds a very strong hand, with Energumene, Unexcepted and Franco de Port among the entries. The former is currently second-favourite in the Arkle market for Cheltenham, and if he is to justify that position, as the likely chief threat to Shishkin, he probably needs to be winning this, with underfoot conditions in his favour. At the time of writing, it hasn’t been confirmed whether or not Unexcepted will also take his chance, but he has been left in at the forfeit stage, and I hope he faces the starter. He was impressive at Tipperary in October (in the race in which Captain Guinness pulled-up with a heart issue) and the form has worked out well. A half-brother to the same connections’ headstrong – but talented – Great Field, he would ensure that his stable-mate didn’t get his own way out in front, although I’m not sure that would be an ideal scenario for the trainer.
In terms of the Marsh Novices’ Chase, Noble Prince finished runner-up in the Irish Arkle before winning the inaugural running of the Cheltenham contest, and Benefficient landed the double. Of those mentioned above, Franco de Port looked to win the Grade 1 over Christmas through stamina, so another bold showing here could see him step up in distance at the festival next month. Melon (finished fourth in this race) went close, of course, last year, too.
Between 1998 and 2014, no fewer than seven of the 16 winners of the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham had contested the Irish Champion Hurdle on their previous start. The first six of those – Istabraq (x3), Brave Inca and Hurricane Fly (x2) – were successful, whilst Jezki finished fourth in this race, before landing the feature race on day one of the festival seven years ago. Hurricane Fly won this race for five successive years between 2011 – 2015, and following his fifth win in the race, he hit the frame in his final Champion Hurdle, as did Petit Mouchoir after he won the 2017 renewal (both finished third). Two of the past three winners of the Irish Champion Hurdle ran in different races at the festival, with Supasundae finishing runner-up in the Stayers’ and, of course, last year’s winner Honeysuckle won the David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle. Henry de Bromhead’s unbeaten seven-year-old again heads the market for Saturday’s race – which looks potentially stronger than last year’s renewal – after which a decision will then be made as to her chosen Cheltenham target.
Sharjah was impressive over Christmas in the Matheson Hurdle, and he probably had the excuse of a change of tactics (ridden a lot more prominently) when disappointing in this race 12 months ago. Saint Roi and Abacadabras both disappointed – to differing degrees – in that Matheson, but could easily bounce back, whilst Saldier is expected to improve for his reappearance. This could be a stiff test for Honeysuckle, who I still expect to end up contesting the Mares’ race next month, unless she runs out a convincing winner.
Finally, for Saturday, the concluding Grade 2 Goffs Future Stars I.N.H. Flat Race was won by Envoi Allen in 2019 before he followed up in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper. Last year’s winner Appreciate It went on to finish runner-up at the festival, whilst the very first winner Blackbow finished fifth. The entries for this race suggest that it could be the strongest bumper run so far this season, and the stand-out (and rather obvious) contender looks to be Sir Gerhard who beat a subsequent bumper winner by 14 lengths at Down Royal, before ending the winning run of Letsbeclearaboutit – who could re-oppose – in a Listed event at Navan in mid-December. That race was also won by the same connections’ Envoi Allen, and like all three winners of this race to date, Sir Gerhard is a former Point-to-Point winner. Should he win this, he is likely to harden considerably for the Champion Bumper, a race which owners Cheveley Park Stud will be bidding to win for a third year in a row.
Sticking with the bumper division, and Sunday’s card concludes with a Grade 2 for mares, the Coolmore N.H. Sires Kew Gardens Irish EBF Mares I.N.H. Flat Race. The first running of this race was a strong one, with winner Relegate going on to win the Weatherbys Champion Bumper, whilst the second Getaway Katie Mai won the Grade 2 mares’ event at Aintree, and the third Colreevy won a Grade 3 at the Punchestown Festival. The latter returned to Punchestown in 2019 to beat the boys in the Grade 1, and is currently developing into a very smart novice chaser. 2019 winner Santa Rossa also headed to Aintree, but instead of taking on her own sex, finished third in the open Grade 2, whilst last year’s winner Darling Daughter could finish only 15th in the Champion Bumper.
Responsible for six of the 15 original entries (and five of the 12 after the forfeit stage), Willie Mullins again holds the key, and I am hoping that he runs Brandy Love here, as I was very impressed by her maiden Point success last February, and she won a Fairyhouse bumper in a canter on her debut for current connections. That form isn’t particularly strong, but she was – visually – very impressive, and she looks to have a very bright future. Of the potential opposition, Hollymount will attract plenty of attention having changed hands for £300,000 only last week. A winner at Carlisle for Stuart Crawford and Brian Hughes, she is now in the care of Gordon Elliott, and will carry the silks of Noel and Valerie Moran for the first time. Interestingly, both mares are by the same sire, Jet Away.
Before I look at the remaining trio of Grade 1 races on Sunday’s card, the William Fry Handicap Hurdle is clearly a race that Gordon Elliott likes to target. The race became a 0-150 handicap in 2018, and that renewal saw Delta Work finish fourth behind the well-handicapped Total Recall. After qualifying at Punchestown shortly after, Delta Work won the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham, whilst the third home – Flawless Escape – was sent off favourite for the Martin Pipe. In 2019, Dallas des Pictons won this race before beating all bar Early Doors in the Martin Pipe (another well-backed 7-2 favourite), whilst last year’s third Column Of Fire held every chance in the same race, when falling at the final flight. The novice Fakiera caught my eye among the initial entries for this year’s race, but he was taken out on Tuesday (still entered in the aforementioned Nathaniel Lacy), leaving Elliott with five of the 38 entries at the five-day stage. Take note of his chosen runner, with one eye on the Martin Pipe, or possibly the Pertemps Final.
Race two on Sunday is the Grade 1 Tattersalls Ireland Spring Juvenile Hurdle, and between 2012 and 2018, it was contested by no fewer than five of the seven Triumph Hurdle winners. Interestingly, only Our Conor was successful in this race, with the other quartet finishing second, third or fourth. With Triumph Hurdle favourite Zanahiyr being taken out on Tuesday, it looks as though Gordon Elliott – who holds a very strong hand in this division – will rely on Quilixios (with his other four initial entries being taken out at forfeit stage). Off the track since winning at Down Royal in late-October, his main market rival is French Aseel who created a deep impression when winning a maiden at this track over Christmas, for trainer Ellmarie Holden. His 22-length defeat of Coltor was advertised on Sunday, when the runner-up won at Naas, and he is set to make his first start for trainer Willie Mullins, in the black and yellow silks of Joe and Marie Donnelly. With Youmdor also still engaged for the Mullins stable, and Busselton representing the Knight Frank form, this still looks set to be a strong Grade 1 event.
Between 2009 and 2013, four winners of the RSA Insurance Novices’ Chase (or the Festival Novices’ Chase as it is to be known this year) contested the Flogas Novice Chase or the Dr P.J. Moriarty as it once was. Of the quartet, Cooldine and Bostons Angel completed the double, with Weapon’s Amnesty (2nd) and Lord Windermere (3rd) both hitting the frame. Prior to Cooldine, the same connections’ Florida Pearl was the last horse to complete the Flogas/RSA double, and Willie Mullins – who won the race in memorable fashion last year, with Faugheen – will be hoping that Monkfish can repeat the trick. Already clear favourite for the Cheltenham race, he will be a warm order on Sunday, to confirm the Neville Hotels form with Latest Exhibition. He had three lengths to spare over Paul Nolan’s runner at Christmas – and there was just a neck between them in the Albert Bartlett last March – so it ought to be a fascinating clash. Given how enthusiastically he races, dropping back to 2m5f shouldn’t be an issue for Monkfish, who is unbeaten in two starts over fences to date. Of the seven other possible runners, fans of Envoi Allen will be keen to see a positive showing Joseph O’Brien’s Fils d’Oudairies, who chased home the Marsh favourite in the Killiney Novice Chase recently. Given the distance of this race, it is slightly surprising that it has yet to produce a winner of the Marsh.
The final Grade 1 of the two-day fixture is the Irish Gold Cup, a race which Sizing John won in 2017, before completing the famous double at Cheltenham (and treble at Punchestown, for good measure). The only other winner of the Gold Cup at Cheltenham to have contested the ‘Irish Hennessy’ (as it was then) this century was Lord Windermere, who finished only sixth, seven years ago. Prior to that, the last pair of Gold Cup winners to hail from this race were Jodami (1993) and Imperial Call (1996) who were both successful. There will be a maximum of five runners in Sunday’s renewal, with the market headed by Minella Indo, who bids to bounce back from his fall in the Savills Chase, in which Kemboy and Melon hit the frame. Delta Work also unseated in that contest (at the very next fence), so despite the small field, this still looks to be a quality renewal.
DUBLIN RACING FESTIVAL KEY CHELTENHAM POINTERS
- 2 of the past 3 Weatherbys Champion Bumper winners won one of the G2 bumpers at this meeting
- 3 winners in 4 years between 2015 – 2018 completed the Irish Arkle – Cheltenham double (all trained by Willie Mullins)
- Hurricane Fly (2013) is the last Irish Champion Hurdle winner to win the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham
- Since the race changed distance (2m) 2 of the 3 winners of the Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle won at the Cheltenham Festival
- 5 of the 7 Triumph Hurdle winners between 2012 – 2018 contested the Spring Juvenile Hurdle (only 1 was successful)
- 4 of the 5 winners of the Festival Novices’ Chase (formerly the RSA) between 2009 – 2013 finished in the first three of the Flogas Novice Chase
- Only 2 Gold Cup winners this century ran in the Irish Gold Cup (1 was successful)
Paul Ferguson, Weatherbys