Antepost betting: John Smith's Cup & Bunbury Cup tips for York and Newmarket
Antepost betting tips
1pt e.w. Bugle Major in John Smith’s Cup at 25/1 (Sky Bet, William Hill, Unibet ¼ 1,2,3,4)
1pt e.w. Shine So Bright in bet365 Bunbury Cup at 25/1 (General ¼ 1,2,3,4)
French import sitting on huge run
Richard Hughes’ horses have been underestimated in the market as a general rule this year – following them blind over the past four months would have yielded a profit – and he’s got interesting contenders at big prices for two of the most competitive handicaps of the season at York and Newmarket on Saturday July 10.
First up, though admittedly run a quarter of an hour later on the slightly contentious and undoubtedly packed ‘Super Saturday’ programme, the John Smith’s Cup in which BUGLE MAJOR is a fascinating player worth a small each-way bet at the current 25/1 (Sky Bet, Hills, Unibet).
He’s only competed twice for Hughes and has been beaten 15 lengths at Newmarket and 10 lengths at Royal Ascot, but the assessor has dropped him as a result and he’s had excuses on each occasion as well.
The Rowley Mile run, over 10 furlongs on May 22, was his first start for the yard after being sold by Juddmonte (cost 90,000 guineas) and switching from Pascal Bary in France to his new stable so was probably needed in the first place, but heavy rain probably didn’t see the son of Mizzen Mast in his best light either.
He went off 150/1 for the Royal Hunt Cup on the back of that and it’s worth another look as he wasn’t drawn great in 12 and Pat Dobbs elected to move across to join the larger group towards the stands’ side rail (follow link for FREE video replay).
The grey raced keenly towards the back of the massive field and was still moving powerfully when denied a clear path a furlong and a half out. He was bumped about for a few strides and couldn’t get anywhere near competitive but did run on at the death, suggesting he wasn’t at all out of place in such warm company.
His French form isn’t stacked with big-race victories but, having not seen the track as a juvenile, he was an unbeaten at three (2/2), while on his last run for Bary he was second to the Godolphin-owned, Andre Fabre-trained Magny Cours, who came over to Sandown to win the Listed Gala Stakes last summer. His two outings immediately after beating Bugle Major earlier this year were at Group One level so Hughes’ recruit does appear to have some potential when it comes to this kind of major handicap.
Moving back up in trip around York looks likely to suit him perfectly too (John Smith’s Cup his sole entry at time of writing) as all three wins for Fabre came around bends, while the further 2lb ease in the ratings since Ascot is presumably more than welcome by current connections.
Bright prospects for Balding and King Power
The Hughes-trained horse in question when it comes to the bet365 Bunbury Cup at Newmarket on the same afternoon is Karibana, who wasn’t seen to best effect on the ‘wrong’ side in the Buckingham Palace Stakes.
It can’t have been easy to watch Highfield Princess – the filly he’d beaten when the pair met at Chelmsford at the end of May – making all up the nearside rail to win the very same Royal Ascot handicap, but returning to the July Course at HQ, where he won in August, should stand Karibana in good stead next month.
I’m not all that convinced he’s got much (if anything) in hand from his current mark, though, having gone up 4lb to 95 for the head success on the all-weather, so preference is for Andrew Balding’s SHINE SO BRIGHT.
He’s hardly a model of consistency these days and will be 1lb ‘wrong’ running off 101 having been dropped a pound since the weights were published. However, he’s still almost a stone lower than his peak BHA rating of 115 which was achieved after beating Laurens at York in a Group Two a couple of summers ago.
Returning from a 50-day break, he put in one of his better recent efforts when fourth in the Listed Cathedral Stakes over six furlongs at Salisbury, holding every chance two out before being inevitably outpaced and shaping in need of a return to seven.
More importantly, he’s only ever run in two handicaps in his life, winning the Free Handicap at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) as a three-year-old and being beaten a head by Count Otto at Lingfield earlier this season.
Count Otto went on to beat Saturday's Chipchase winner Chil Chil the following month and is now 8lb higher than when edging out Shine So Bright at Lingfield, so I’ve no qualms over the selection’s current mark at all, while his front-running style can be really effective on the July Course.
He’s yet to race here but should love it if getting some decent ground to work with and if he takes up this engagement rather than wait for the International Stakes at Ascot on July 24, I find it hard to believe he’ll be anything like 25/1 on the day.
Published at 1510 BST on 28/06/21
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