Irish Eyes returns with four recommended bets on a high-class day's action over jumps and on the level.
The best thing about autumn is the fantastic mix of jumping and Flat action as today's cards at Limerick and Navan illustrate.
The jumpers are starting off their season - some needing a run or two to put them right - whilst the Flat horses are often coming to the end of an arduous one where they may be over the top so from a punting perspective it’s not always easy to get things right on days like this but we shall give it a go.
Not many two-year-old fillies run eight times in their juvenile campaign but that’s where SIZZLING finds herself this afternoon at Navan and despite only having one win to her name thus far, her worst placing has been fourth on her penultimate start, in a Group 2 event at Doncaster where she was only beaten two heads and a neck so she fully merits her rating of 103.
She followed that up with a second placing behind Ellthea in a Group 3 at Naas over 7f and a return to one mile today coupled with a drop in class to Listed company sees her get the nap vote under Wayne Lordan.
She is vying for favouritism around the 2/1 mark with her stablemate Bye Bye Baby, who is the mount of Donnacha O’Brien and whilst it is obvious that the latter is an improving sort, she’ll need to be a top prospect to step up from a maiden win at Newmarket eight days ago to beat a filly of the calibre of Sizzling.
Third favourite this afternoon is another Ballydoyle stablemate, Ballet Shoes, but she carries a 3lb penalty as a result of her Listed win at Tipperary in August. Had she not been penalised here she would have every chance of putting it up to the rest of them but Sizzling passed her last time out off levels in the Park Stakes at Naas over 7f so it is difficult to see her reversing the form over a furlong further with 3lb more on her back.
Its 12/1 bar the three O’Brien fillies but the 2/1 about Sizzling looks generous, all things considered.
Sporting Life RequestABet Specials
Sizzling (16.45 Navan), Auvergnat (16.25 Limerick) & Nietzsche (17.15 Navan) all to place - 10/1
Sizzling (16.45 Navan), Auvergnat (16.25 Limerick) & Wonder Laish (17.15 Navan) all to place - 12/1
Sizzling (16.45 Navan) & Auvergnat (16.25 Limerick) both to win - 18/1
The two big races of the day are the Irish Cesarewitch and the Munster National and both are great punting contests.
In the Irish Cesarewitch the man to look at first off is always Willie Mullins, who is chasing a hat-trick of wins.
Not surprisingly he supplies the favourite in the shape of Gustavus Vassa but despite his undoubted genius and the fact that his yard is in top form, there are worries about the son of Equiano on his first run for Mullins.
First of all, he is making his handicap debut in one of the most competitive races of the season but perhaps more importantly, his stamina for today’s trip is anything but assured, on pedigree.
Mullins is the master at transforming other trainer's winners into superstars when they join him but the niggling doubts on this occasion encourage us to look elsewhere for some each-way value instead, despite the fact the favourite has a featherweight to carry.
Two horses that appeal are the Brian Ellison-trained Nietzsche and Charles Byrnes' Wonder Laish.
Nietzsche was only a 60-rated maiden when he left William Haggas but four wins later, he has improved some 26lb since joining Ellison.
Not only that but he’s won three of his seven starts over hurdles and has never finishes out of the first three, with the highlight being a very close third in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham Festival. He was off then until he had a pipe-opener for today race at Doncaster last month and that should put him spot on for a good shot at this.
At 20/1 generally, including with Sky Bet who are offering six places on the race, he makes lots of appeal.
Coincidentally, Wonder Laish was also formerly trained by Haggas but he fared much better for the Newmarket handler than the aforementioned Nietzsche, having broken his maiden and won a Heritage Handicap at Ascot.
He had a rating of 89 when he left Newmarket, one which has since dropped to 86 following two disappointing Flat runs for Charles Byrnes, but he did win a Listowel maiden hurdle last time out indicating that Byrnes has rekindled his fire.
A race of this calibre must have been in connections' minds when they laid out 85,000gns to purchase him at the Newmarket Horses-In-Training Sale in October 2016 and he definitely has it in him to run a big race here at odds of 25/1.
At Limerick, Byrnes could also go close in the feature race, the Munster National.
Rock On Fruity is not the best jumper in the world but when he gets into a rhythm he can put it together and he did just that at this track during the summer, albeit that was on good ground.
He won again at Kilbeggan though, when it was soft, which offers some encouragement for today’s race and his owner JP McManus would love to win the race dedicated to the memory of the late, great John Thomas McNamara.
However, an even more appropriate winner would be Auvergnat who is not only owned by JP but trained by the man with whom John Thomas enjoyed so many of his finest moments, Enda Bolger.
Auvergnat won a banks race at Punchestown for Bolger and finished fourth in the Cross Country at Cheltenham and improved from that to win a Killarney National in May and finish runner-up in the Connacht National off a 9lb higher mark.
Were he not put away for this, his mark may have continued to rise over the summer as he appeals as one that has not finished improving yet so the current 13/2 looks more than fair.
Recommended bets
3pts win Sizzling in Navan 4.45 at 2/1 (General)
2pts win Auvergnat in Limerick 4.25 at 13/2 (General)
1pt e.w. Nietzsche in Navan 5.15 at 20/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Wonder Laish in Navan 5.15 at 25/1 (General)
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Posted at 1025 BST on 08/10/17.