How to pick a Grand National winner: Matt Brocklebank looks at the options
Matt Brocklebank ponders 10 of the most popular ways to make a Grand National selection – and what each approach says about you as a punter...
1. Familiar faces
Unusually, there are no previous Grand National winners in this year’s line-up, but three of the class of 2018 have been placed in the great race before, while Pleasant Company, who went off among the favourites last April and is a much-bigger 33/1 this time, became etched into a few shrewd notebooks with an unfortunate ninth. They aren’t the only ones with National experience under their belt, but they look the most likely candidates of those returning for another bite at the cherry.
Who to back: Blaklion, The Last Samuri, Saint Are, Pleasant Company
What it says about you: You vaguely recall your dad’s mate telling you that horses having their second, or even third, crack at the big race have a brilliant record. You’re not too bothered if the assumption matches the recent evidence (it doesn’t), but you remember the intense rush you felt 12 months ago when Blaklion strode clear under a confident Noel Fehily five fences from the finish, and you want another hit. You suspect Sam Twiston-Davies is a step down from Fehily, though you’re not willing to air those views publicly. You bet big, and often.
2. Form study
These are the National contenders who have been campaigned so cleverly that they arrive in Liverpool ahead of the handicapper on account of the weights being revealed way back in February, and said horses having run well since – they would be higher up the weights were the handicap to be framed tomorrow. The final option, Tiger Roll, isn’t well-in, but the remarkable little horse bolted up again at the Cheltenham Festival - this time in the Cross Country Chase - and he's seemingly never been in better form.
Who to back: Anibale Fly, Shantou Flyer , Tiger Roll
What it says about you: You have 13 betting-related apps on your phone that your marital partner is thus far unaware of, primarily due to the fact they’re grouped together within a sub-app titled ‘work’. You’ve never calculated your BMI, have no idea what bulgur wheat is or does, and you’re increasingly worried you’ve burst a blood vessel in your eye due to too much screen time. Long bored of the National Hunt season, you’ve already got one in mind for the Ayr Gold Cup and you’re tracking Kingman’s every move at stud.
3. Sweeper keeper
Ah, the office sweepstake. Half of the entrants may not have coughed up yet, and you might not get paid out until three weeks next Thursday, should you take a share of the spoils, but there’s nothing more ‘National week’ than watching Keith from finance sitting at his desk carefully cutting out all 40 horses with a pair of scissors. Bliss.
"Did you get a good one, Danielle?"
"Paper says it’ll be lapped."
Who to back: Valseur Lido, Buywise, Raz De Maree, Vieux Lion Rouge
What it says about you: You’re a team player and you shouldn’t be ashamed of it. You pretend not to know a jot about gambling, but you’re not averse to playing the virtual roulette while waiting for your bus – something of which you are ever so slightly ashamed.
4. Something trendy
It seems National trends were once all the rage, but it’s fair to say the stats gurus have their knockers these days. Being informed Ballabriggs fitted ‘just about every trend under the sun’ moments after he galloped to victory in 2011 was a personal low point, and the problem we have is that supposed trends tend to alter in time. Mon Mome bucked the French-breds hoodoo and Many Clouds broke the mould in terms of official ratings. Meanwhile, eight-year-olds have become hot property in recent years. Chances are, whoever you choose there’ll be a trend or two they slot into. But you can rule out Bless The Wings, Maggio and Raz De Maree, as 13-year-olds just don’t win the Grand National...
Who to back: I Just Know, The Dutchman, Total Recall, Road To Riches
What it says about you: You’re an avid squash player, while the thought of settling down with tea and toast to tackle a Times jumbo cryptic crossword on a Saturday morning sends shivers down the spine. The good kind. You may live alone, have two cats named Pepsi and Shirlie, and you don’t like clutter. In fact, your views on humans commonly referred to as ‘hoarders’ is frankly unpublishable. You rush home to wash your hands after your annual trip to the betting shop on the second Saturday in April.
5. Lottery numbers
Birthdays, anniversaries and favourite roulette numbers are all bound to come into the reckoning here and if you’re reading this thinking ‘nobody picks their National horse purely on the number’, then you’d be way wide of the mark. If you’re trusting to side with Lady Luck, then take some inspiration from the very first Grand National winner in 1839, namely Lottery. The most commonly drawn ball in the modern Lotto is 23, which at the time of writing represents Ucello Conti. He's had a couple of goes in the race but he’s had a light campaign this time and carries a lower weight to boot. He’s trained by a master in Gordon Elliott and he’s ridden by Daryl Jacob. Sometimes, you make your own luck.
Who to back: Ucello Conti, Tenor Nivernais, Carlingford Lough, Delusionofgrandeur
What it says about you: You wear a tabard and/or name badge to work. You once wrote a review of a mixed grill on Trip Advisor, such was the impression it left, and you’ve amalgamated the names of your children, Craig and Nicola, to rename your house, Crainic. You tend not to bet on racing as you believe it is, in the main, corrupt.
6. The name game
If you’ve not yet seen the American commentary of the horse named Arrrrr, then your wish is my command. Sadly, no such moniker represented in the 2018 National but one or two who seem to fit the bill if you are a signed up member of the Sounds Like A Grand National Winner club, this year starring Gas Line Boy - which positively screams it. After Bobbyjo, Monty’s Pass, Auroras Encore and One For Arthur have all done the business, to varying degrees admittedly, for followers of horses named after humans in the past 20 years, this year’s sole selection from that niche band is Double Ross. Unless your great uncle Dave’s nickname is Captain Redbeard, in which case you’ve possibly got bigger issues to be concerned with.
Who to back: Captain Redbeard, Gas Line Boy, Chase The Spud, Double Ross
What it says about you: We’re all drawn to a name and we all have our views on them. Take the following - Sea The Stars: bad name; War Of Attrition: good name; Katchit: bad name; Golden Horn: great name. Anyway, chances are your favourite wines are carbonated and the last winner you backed was Sole Power at 100/1 in the Nunthorpe. You’re also particularly fond of the Snapchat camera filter which turns your facial appearance, and the sound of your voice, into that of a bumble-bee.
7. Tips
Butchers’ shops, bakeries and barbers have been abuzz with Grand National chat during the week, while the red tops always go big with their idea of where best to splash the cash at Aintree. Whether you're sourcing your selections from your sister, your teacher, our own tipping talent, or a blend of all three, try to resist sending the subject a vitriolic message after the picks end up ducking out at the Canal Turn. Very few tipsters would profess to being National experts and, if pushed, the vast majority would rather offer a view on the 3.35 at Lingfield.
Who to back: Houblon Des Obeaux, Maggio, Virgilio, Thunder And Roses
What it says about you: You probably have children; you’re socially active and yet despise fancy dress parties. You annually hold a Grand National barbecue, at which you make the same aubergine salad and lamb kebabs. Your furniture doesn’t match particularly well and above the oven you’ve a small sign which reads ‘Dull people have immaculate kitchens’. You usually end up backing six or seven horses to small stakes each-way.
8. Silky smooth
No colours have been carried to victory more often in the past 20 years than the green and yellow quarters of Preston North End owner Trevor Hemmings. Hedgehunter, Ballabriggs and Many Clouds have starred in the famous silks at Aintree, all for different trainers, and he goes to war once more with relatively recent purchase, Warriors Tale. Seeyouatmidnight is also set to debut in new colours on Saturday, having been bought by Cheveley Park’s David and Patricia Thompson. J P McManus’s green and gold hoops entered National folklore when Don’t Push It won under A P McCoy in 2010 and he's come close on other occasions courtesy of Sunnyhillboy and Cause Of Causes. With Anibale Fly accounted for elsewhere, J P’s dark horse Pendra sneaks into this category.
Who to back: Warriors Tale, Seeyouatmidnight, Pendra
What it says about you: A lover of the arts, extra rich cheddar and sit-on lawnmowers, you consider yourself a connoisseur of all things important in your life. You only ever look at the Heritage collection of Dulux paints and you have a tall kitchen dresser in which you store/display homely trinkets. Perth is by a long way your favourite racecourse.
9. Front page news
"Horses do not win Nationals when ridden by women."
The great Ginger McCain, Red Rum’s trainer, had much to say about Aintree, but until the inevitable eventually happens this may be the line that he’ll be remembered for most during National week. Milansbar and Alpha Des Obeaux bid to cap highly successful seasons for Bryony Frost and Rachael Blackmore respectively, but the story of Baie Des Iles has an extra couple of twists, being grey, a seven-year-old, and a mare, while her rider Katie Walsh is married to her trainer, and together they bid to become the first couple to successfully team up in the most famous steeplechase. Imagine researching Ruby Walsh in 60 years’ time and reading: 'Brother of Katie Walsh, the first female Grand National-winning jockey; also rode Kauto Star, Hurricane Fly etc.'
Who to back: Milansbar, Baie Des Iles, Lord Windermere, Alpha Des Obeaux
What it says about you: You’ve never owned a football shirt and if pushed your first point of reference to The National would be the Cincinnati-formed rock band. You’re appalled that Tom Cruise cast himself as Jack Reacher in the eponymous films, and you’re aware of how much the letter F is worth in scrabble. You get others to put your bets on for you.
10. Pin sticker
The old-fashioned ‘stick a pin in’ approach seems a bit barbaric when you can be guided by so many other fascinating factors, but it works for some. Good luck.
Who to back: Perfect Candidate, Childrens List, Bless The Wings, Final Nudge
What it says about you: You’ve been battling insecurities for years but you’re finally comfortable in your own skin. You’ve always been interested in the idea of a voodoo doll. You still genuinely wonder why you've never backed the National winner.