Ben Linfoot delves deep into the numbers to discover the extent of Charlie Appleby's recent below-par form, by his extraordinary standards, heading into Royal Ascot.
Appleby form and context
Breaking news: Charlie Appleby is officially out of form. Zero winners from 10 runners in June*, on the back of 12 from 65 at a strike-rate of 18% in May, the last five or six weeks have been unusually barren by Appleby’s usual high standards.
Trainer form can be volatile and any measurement of success or lack of is often based on arbitrary timeframes, but when you’ve been as consistently brilliant as Appleby has been for a number of years any dip in form becomes noticeable.
Here is a trainer that has averaged a 30% win strike-rate for the last three years and the last time his monthly strike-rate dipped below last month’s figure of 18% was 27 months ago in the March of 2021.
They were mainly all-weather horses with only Doncaster’s Lincoln meeting included from the turf, so the last time Appleby’s strike-rate was as low as 18% in the turf season proper (April – October) was 43 months ago in the September of 2019 (3 winners from 20 runners at 15%).
Any trainer can suffer a lean spell, a relative one in Appleby’s case, when it comes to winners, but a more sophisticated way of assessing trainer form is by comparing a horse’s pre-race rating to what it achieved in the race, grouped together to produce a Run To Form (RTF) figure.
Timeform collate such numbers using their ratings to assess trainer form and it’s noticeable Appleby’s RTF percentage has dropped this year. His RTF averages 70.18% for the last five years, but it’s down to 64.6% in 2023, suggesting Appleby’s string aren’t quite operating at their usual level.
His best three-year-olds have let the side down, six representatives in the Classics not troubling the judge while Castle Way, Military Order and Eternal Hope are his only three-year-old winners at Listed level and above from 24 goes this year.
Four years since last significant form dip
Those RTF figures suggest it's only a slight drop off in form, but Appleby’s below-par run has been noticeable also because of some high-profile and unexpected defeats.
Hurricane Lane and Military Order were both stuffed out of sight at Epsom despite being well-fancied and Appleby had a total of six odds-on shots beaten in May, resulting in his lowest WAX (Wins Against Expectation) figure since that aforementioned September in 2019.
Revisiting that cold spell four years ago, Appleby had 20 runners in September 2019 and 10 of them were beaten at odds of 9/4 or lower, while it came on the back of a quieter-than-usual July and August where he ticked along at around a 20% win strike-rate.
Masar was retired after finishing last in a Group 2 at Newmarket’s July Festival, while Appleby only had two runners at York’s Ebor meeting that August.
The summer of 2019 was a quiet one for Appleby on the back of two red-hot years in 2017 and 2018, campaigns where he significantly improved his annual win strike-rate from around 21% to 28%.
Things, of course, weren’t that bad and he did unearth Pinatubo, a star two-year-old who went six from six as a juvenile, including a couple of wins at Group 1 level in the autumn of 2019.
His Dewhurst win that October contributed to a business-as-usual 26.32% win strike-rate for Appleby that month, sparking the run of success that saw him motor along at 30% for the next three years.
Juveniles key to strike-rate target
Talking of star two-year-olds, it’s getting to the time of year where Appleby will start unleashing his best juveniles and his two-year-old crop looks crucial to getting that strike-rate back up to a more dominant percentage.
Early two-year-olds have never been Appleby’s thing, with July to October the months where he traditionally runs his juvenile team in their greatest numbers. Taking those four months in isolation, these are Appleby’s figures with his juveniles since 2016:
- 2016 – 24/113 at 21.2%
- 2017 – 37/104 at 35.6%
- 2018 – 14/53 at 26.4%
- 2019 – 21/81 at 25.9%
- 2020 – 32/88 at 36.4%
- 2021 – 33/110 at 30.0%
- 2022 – 42/112 at 37.5%
It’s clear Appleby’s juveniles usually lay the foundations for his success and his two-year-old team will be crucial again in that respect this time around.
The Appleby two-year-olds aren’t usually out in force by June, a point underlined by his record with juveniles at Royal Ascot – he’s two from 22 at 9.09% with his two-year-olds at that meeting - and his winners, Sound And Silence and Pinatubo, both went into Ascot with two runs under their belt.
After only fielding seven individual two-year-old runners so far in 2023, it looks unlikely Appleby’s juveniles will be firing in time for Royal Ascot. On Point looked the most likely after winning at Newmarket on debut, but he was well beaten in the National Stakes at Sandown and has subsequently been gelded.
His two-year-olds will be key, but it could be another two or three weeks before the Moulton Paddocks juvenile battalion are out in force.
Appleby’s form and Royal Ascot
The skill of Appleby has been so excellent over such a significant period it has to be expected that his win strike-rate and RTF figures return to those he has become accustomed to sooner rather than later.
Whether there is an underlying factor such as a bug in the yard or something similar is unknown, but either way it will be more of a surprise if his recent figures aren’t anything but a statistical anomaly.
His current form isn’t ideal going into such a competitive meeting like Royal Ascot, but he is likely to have a strong team for the Berkshire bonanza, even if his juveniles aren’t expected to form a large part of his squad.
It’s his older horses like Adayar and Modern Games that will go into the week with expectations on their shoulders, while he’s sure to be well represented in the handicaps.
Appleby had his best ever Royal Ascot last year with four winners thanks to Coroebus, Secret State, Noble Truth and Naval Crown, but a good Royal Ascot isn’t essential to ensure a good June – numbers-wise at least.
In the Covid-19 hit year of 2020 Appleby was 0 from 14 at Royal Ascot, yet he ended the month with 18 winners from 70 runners at 25.71%.
Such a strike-rate seems unlikely for Appleby this June given the start he’s made, but a couple of high-profile Royal Ascot winners could be just the ticket as he bids to get that strike-rate back to his ridiculously high standards.
A dip to 18% would be a dream for most trainers. But Appleby isn’t most trainers after the standards he has set the last few years. Heading into a key part of the season, watching the Appleby yard try and rediscover its mojo will make for interesting viewing.
*Stats up to date until morning of June 7 2023
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