How Aintree’s Grand National meeting could decide 2023-24 trainers’ championship
With the trainers’ championship hotting up following Cheltenham we take a look at how Aintree could affect the outcome of this year’s battle.
Who’s making a splash in title battle this year?
“It’s blown Nicky Henderson out of the water,” said Paul Nicholls. “That’s put that game over for another season.”
If anyone is in any doubt about what being champion trainer means to certain protagonists, let’s just remember this brilliant quote from Paul Nicholls on national television in the moments after he’d won his first (and last) Grand National with Neptune Collonges in 2012.
Twelve years on and Nicholls is still loving the heat of battle, knowing to the pound what his total winnings for the season were at a pre-Cheltenham Festival media day, while in the aftermath of the Festival he issued a warning to his former assistant, Dan Skelton, now leading the championship after a stellar Cheltenham, saying: “It won’t be easy for him.”
Nicholls, of course, has dominated the trainers’ championship over the last 20 years, winning it 14 times, and he’s one away from equalling Martin Pipe's record of 15.
It’s another massive one for him, then, but interest in this year’s race is heightened given there looks to be three genuine UK-based candidates and the Willie Mullins Irish wildcard making up a four-way tussle for the prize.
Nicholls cites Aintree, Ayr and Sandown as the three crucial meetings in the run for the title, and the latter two could be vital depending upon what happens in Liverpool, but with £3.425million up for grabs at Aintree it’s the Randox Grand National Festival that could decide who ends up being top of the pile come the Jump Finale day at Sandown on April 27.
Current Standings*
- Dan Skelton £2,518,177 | 5/2
- Paul Nicholls £2,440,628 | 2/5
- Willie Mullins £1,914,789 | 16/1
- Nicky Henderson £1,754,933 | 8/1
*Prizemoney and prices correct at 1000 GMT on 21/03/2024, odds by Paddy Power
The Favourite: Paul Nicholls
It’s no wonder Nicholls remains a strong odds-on chance in this market despite being overtaken by Skelton at the Cheltenham Festival.
He says he has "held loads back" for the better ground in the spring and a shift in focus has seen him give Aintree at least equal priority with Cheltenham over the last few years.
At the 2021 and 2022 Grand National meetings he had six winners all told, three in each season, with Clan Des Obeaux (twice), Monmiral, Knappers Hill, Hacker Des Places and Gelino Bello landing the prizes, making up more winners for the Nicholls team than the previous four Grand National meetings combined.
Last year he only won the one race with Pic D’Orhy, but he had four others in the top three in Complete Unknown, Blueking D’Oroux, Hermes Allen and Sonigino, and it would be a surprise if he doesn’t bounce back with multiple winners in Liverpool this time around.
He’s got quality horses that skipped Cheltenham fresh for Aintree again, with Pic D’Orhy, expensive purchase Caldwell Potter, Kalif Du Berlais and Tahmuras springing to mind, while his Grand National hopes rest on Threeunderthrufive, who was fourth in the Scottish version last spring.
That could be key, as going to Aintree with a fresh horse has paid dividends over the years. In 2022, 11 of the 21 Aintree winners missed Cheltenham, while last year it was 10 from 21.
The eagle-eyed amongst you will note that half the winners ran at Cheltenham, as well, and Nicholls could have that covered, too, with the likes of Ginny’s Destiny and Bravemansgame likely to turn out again at Aintree, better ground now looking a prerequisite for the latter.
The Leader: Dan Skelton
You would’ve got a big price about Skelton leading the trainers’ championship after Cheltenham before the tapes went up for the Sky Bet Supreme, but after an incredible week for the Warwickshire handler, that’s the scenario.
Having learnt a thing or two from his time with Nicholls you just know he’d love to get one over his old boss and land a first title, but, like his mentor underlined, it will not be easy.
However, he’ll be throwing everything he can at it, which likely means Aintree runs for all four of his Cheltenham Festival winners.
He’s pencilled Langer Dan in for the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle, Unexpected Party, up 8lb, looks a natural fit for the Red Rum Handicap Chase, while there are a couple of options for his top novice chaser, Grey Dawning, over both 2m4f and three miles. Ryanair winner Protektorat looks likely to step back up to three miles for the Bowl and Skelton's touch in the handicaps obviously gives him further possibilities of adding to his prizemoney haul, as well.
In the National itself Skelton has two chances; Galia Des Liteaux, who is dead interesting on her Warwick Classic Chase form, for all that she probably needs the ground to be soft, and the 11-year-old Latenightpass, who won the Foxhunters’ at this meeting for previous trainer Tom Ellis.
The Wildcard: Willie Mullins
Patrick Mullins said this week that he’s frustrated that father Willie hasn’t taken an interest in winning the UK trainers’ championship this season, but that’s not to say that he won’t win it.
Before the Festival Mullins was almost £1,900,000 behind Nicholls but after nine Cheltenham wins to one he’s closed the gap to half a million and a spectacular Aintree could make those 16/1 odds look silly. I suppose it all depends on just how strong the Mullins team is in the Aintree Grade 1s with Punchestown just around the corner.
In 2016 Mullins won six races at Aintree including with Annie Power, Apple's Jade, Douvan and Yorkhill, which kick-started a memorable challenge for the UK championship that ultimately ended in a narrow defeat to Nicholls on the final day at Sandown.
That experience, in which he withdrew Vroum Vroum Mag from running at Sandown when it became clear he couldn’t be champion, seems to have soured the ambition, but given he should be competitive in the Grade 1s at Aintree, even without his very best stars, makes another tilt a possibility.
In the Grand National he has a very strong hand with I Am Maximus, Meetingofthewaters and Mr Incredible. It could be worth remembering that there's £200,000 on offer for second place as well as £500,000 for the winner here, and a £700,000 boost to the coffers from one race would certainly put Mullins in the trainers' championship conversation.
And Henry de Bromhead achieved that exact feat only three years ago via Minella Times and Balko Des Flos.
Aintree selected prizemoney
- G1 Aintree Bowl - £250,000
- G1 Aintree Hurdle - £250,000
- G1 Melling Chase - £250,000
- G1 Liverpool Hurdle - £250,000
- Randox Grand National - £1,000,000
The Comeback King: Nicky Henderson
Nicky Henderson can’t win the Grand National for the first time this year, because he hasn’t got an entry, and being £800,000 behind Skelton makes life difficult for him.
However, the unfortunate events that saw his hopes decimated at Cheltenham, resulting in no-shows for stable stars Constitution Hill, Jonbon, Shishkin and Sir Gino, means he could go to Liverpool with a high-class squad fresh from missing those big battles at Prestbury Park.
Constitution Hill looks unlikely to make Aintree, with Punchestown tentatively pencilled in if he runs again this season at all, but the other three all have obvious targets at the Grand National meeting and he’s sure to have fresh handicappers ready to roll, as well, with Under Control, a mare who needs better ground, on that particular radar.
It will be tough for Henderson to make up the ground on his three rivals, but one thing is for sure: Aintree looks set to have a major bearing on the trainers' championship in 2023-24. And we might even have someone blowing their title contenders out of the water thanks to a crucial Grand National verdict.
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